Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Robert P. Balan Profile picture
@RobertPBalan1
Apr 18, 2023 • 17 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
1/x
robert.p.balan (PAM)
Apr 18, 2023 10:03 AM

EUROPEAN SESSION BRIEF

DXY WEAKENING AHEAD OF THE 10YR YIELD, PAM GOES GOLD LONG OVERHEDGE; WAITING FOR SIGNAL FOR A 10YR YIELD TOP TO PUT IN THE TN LONG OVERHEDGERS; TAKING PROFITS ON LONG EQUITY INDEX SCALPERS DURING EUROPE… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
2/X
 robert.p.balan
Apr 18, 2023 10:05 AM

We initiate long Gold GCM3 overhedgers for gold positioning. twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
3/X
robert.p.balan (PAM)
Apr 18, 2023 10:28 AM

The falling DXY and sideways course of the 10Yr Yield kick-started an NQ and ES rally (as well as Gold's).

The longer the Yield stays on pause, and the farther the DXY falls, the higher NQ and ES (and Gold) should go.

I also… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
4/X
 robert.p.balan (PAM)
Apr 18, 2023 11:23 AM

This is how the models look like today.

The Net Liquidity models are showing still friendly environment for a day (probably even two). Then a topping process begins.

Bearish traders are arguing for a red day today on account of… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
5/X
robert.p.balan (PAM)
Apr 18, 2023 11:54 AM

This post yesterday is ageing very well, indeed -- we are on the way to circa 4200. twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
6/X
robert.p.balan (PAM)
Apr 18, 2023 12:12 PM

We add to the gold long overhedge, if we get the desired GCM3 level. The DXY is starting to recover somehow, and that might get us a lower GCM3 level. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
7/X
robert.p.balan PAM)
Apr 18, 2023 12:41 PM

This yesterday's post is ageing very well, likewise. twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
8/x
robert.p.balan (PAM)
Apr 18, 2023 1:12 PM

Here is the question I am asking myself -- if ESM3 breaches 4200, ES will go higher further. But there is also a chance that it won't.

NQ nonetheless still looks due for another 0DTE run-up by the time NY trade opens, on the other… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
9/X
 robert.p.balan (PAM)
Apr 18, 2023 1:34 PM

Oh boy! on the other hand it, our hads are being forced -- looks like the Yield may be headed lower now, which I did not expect at this juncture.

It might just pull the equities lower. Prudence over valor, gals and guys. Were out,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
10/X
robert.p.balan
Apr 18, 2023 1:42 PM

Long scalpers of April 14, are all offloaded. twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
11/X
 robert.p.balan (PAM)
Apr 18, 2023 1:48 PM

We now do the initial tranche of the long TN overhedge. twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
12/X
 robert.p.balan (PAM)
LeaderApr 18, 2023 2:24 PM

The DXY will not rebound that high, and it looks like the 10Yr Yield is now on a topping out process. We do the second tranche of the long Gold overhedgers. twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
13/X
Some reaction from the PAM community with regards to that "improbable long trade, ahead of the income tax payment" Image
14/X
robert.p.balan (PAM)
Apr 18, 2023 3:42 PM

We do another tranche of the long TN long overhedge. twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
15/X
robert.p.balan (PAM)
Apr 18, 2023 3:51 PM

Yields and equity futurres are back at POSITIVE covar _sentiment turned negative. twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
16/X
 robert.p.balan
Apr 18, 2023 6:19 PM

I leave for 2 hours for a client meeting, and the market did diligent work on the EWP illustration we posted yesterday 😃

Our ESM3 illustration missed the actual market top by just 2.75 bps. How's that for "random walk"?

Now, lets see… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
17/X
 robert.p.balan (PAM)
Apr 18, 2023 6:29 PM

As we have been hammering since the opening of PAM in May 2018, there is no need or room for FOMO, if you know the natural tendency of price movements (e.g. action, reaction), and you can actually wait and plan for your entry and… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Robert P. Balan

Robert P. Balan Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @RobertPBalan1

Robert P. Balan Profile picture
Aug 31, 2023
1/X
$ES_F $NQ_F $SPY $QQQ $IWM $TNX $TLT $GLD #BTC #BitcoinETF

Predictive Analytic Models (PAM)
Robert P. Balan
Aug 30, 2023 10:46 AM

(Late post, busy trading yesterday)

EUROPE SESSION BRIEF:

LOOKING FOR A SHORT TERM TROUGH IN THE 10YR YIELD AND DXY; ONCE WE HAVE IT IDENTIFIED, WE OFFLOAD ALL POSITIONING THAT ARE IN PROFIT, AND THOSE AT RISK, IF THE 10YR YIELD AND DXY BACK-UP HIGHER

The old Fed Aggregate Model (weekly series, out of sample since May 2018) continues to suggest that the SPX should also be trending higher until the 3rd week of September.

However, there could be a mid-point kink lower befoe then, so we want to lighten up on long risk asset positioning sometime during the first week of September.
Robert P. Balan
Aug 30, 2023 4:07 PM

This is the EWP schemata which are on the lookout for -- a final dip, followed by a significant retracement of the Yield decline since 27 August, possibly back to 4.17 - 4.175. Image
3/X
Robert P. Balan
Aug 30, 2023 4:10 PM

This is the corresponding EWP schemata, which may apply to the DXY. We could be looking at 103.75/78 before it peaks. Not a great lot, but that may change, depending on some macro data impacting the markets before the week ends. Image
Read 9 tweets
Robert P. Balan Profile picture
Aug 30, 2023
1/X
 $ES_F $NQ_F $SPY $QQQ $IWM $TNX $TLT $GLD #BTC #BITCOIN

Predictive Analytic Models (PAM)
Robert P. Balan
Aug 29, 2023 9:46 AM

EUROPE OPEN BRIEF:

DXY AGAIN LEADS THE RISK ASSETS; FALLING DXY PRIMES A RALLY IN EARLY EUROPE; THE 10YR YIELD IS AT THE CUSP OF BREAKING BELOW CRUCIAL SUPPORTS LEVELS -- COULD FALL HARD IF SUPPORT GIVES WAY; WE ADD MORE LONG RISK ASSETS ON THAT BASIS (LONG TN, SHORT DX)

(Late post; too busy trading yesterday)

The next major inflection point of the factors influencing high-frequency changes in risk asset prices happens during the 3rd week of September. From today until then, the 10Yr Yield should be on declining phase.

Precursors of, and factors influencing the changes in the 10Yr Yield, SPX, DXY, Gold, and GBTC -- all suggest falling yield over the next couple of weeks, or so until the 3rd week of September.

Treasury Bill Issuance, Total Public Debt, Treas Gen Account, O/N Reverse Repo (inv), Bank Reserves
2/X
Robert P. Balan
Aug 29, 2023 9:48 AM

The DXY falls sharply during early Europe trade, triggering a rally in risk assets (inverted in the chart below).
Image
3/X
 Robert P. Balan
Aug 29, 2023 9:50 AM

We should see another surge in risk asset prices if/when the 10Yr Yield falls below 4.17, the intermediate support level.

A breach below should also drag the DXY lower, and should have collective, positive impact on the long TN, Gold, and Equity futures trades. Short DXY futures should also do well, if/when the Yield falls below 4.17 pct.
Read 13 tweets
Robert P. Balan Profile picture
Aug 28, 2023
1/X
 $ES_F $NQ_F $SPY $QQQ $IWM $TNX $TLT $GLD #BTC #Bitcoin

Predictive Analytic Models (PAM)
Robert P. Balan
Aug 28, 2023 8:49 AM

PRE-EUROPE OPEN BRIEF:

DXY LEADS THE 10YR YIELD, EQUITY FUTURES, AND GOLD; WE EXPECT DXY TO FALL FURTHER -- WE ADD TO LONG GOLD, EQUITY FUTURES, AND SHORT DXY FUTURES POSITIONING; WE INTEND TO ADD MORE LABU IF/WHEN THE YIELD FALLS ALONGSIDE DXY

The inflation swap compensation rates' "model" suggest that the 10Yr yield should continue to roll over, and and fall further for at least another week or so until early September.
2/X
Robert P. Balan
Aug 28, 2023 8:49 AM

It looks like Yen weakness ends sometimes very soon . . . If this is true, then Gold will get a boost. Image
3/X
Robert P. Balan
Aug 28, 2023 8:49 AM

Our Yen models are telling us that the Yen should start firming soon, and it is the US Dollar's turn to get weaker -- that should be good for Gold and equities. Image
Read 13 tweets
Robert P. Balan Profile picture
Aug 23, 2023
1/x
$ES_F $NQ_F $SPY $QQQ $IWM $TNX $TLT $GLD #BTC #Bitcoin

Predictive Analytic Models (PAM)
Robert P. Balan
Aug 23, 2023 10:17 AM

EUROPE SESSION BRIEF:

OUR EVALUATION OF THE US LABOR AND EMPLOYMENT SITUATION SHOWS DATA HAS STARTED BECOMING LESS BENIGN, AND MEDIA REPORTS LIKELY TO TRIGGER MORE BOND AND EQUITY PROFIT-TAKING AHEAD OF THURSDAY INITIAL JOBS CLAIMS, AND FRIDAY'S JACKSON HOLE EVENT

Our high-frequency evaluation of the US labor and employment situation suggests that the still benign labor and employment data will start becoming less favorable.

And if media stories today showcasing the possible degradation of recent benign jobs report are correct, then Mr. Jay Powell will have less favorable employment situation to validate a higher-for-longer rate policy during the JHole event.
2/X
 Robert P. BalanOwnerModeratorLeaderAug 23, 2023 10:18 AM

-- 500,000 jobs could disappear in dramatic revision of US government data: JPMorgan economist Daniel Silver predicts that the job market is 500,000 positions weaker than what the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ originally reported, meaning there are 40,000 fewer jobs pe…nypost.com/2023/08/22/us-…
NYpost.com
3/X
Robert P. Balan
Aug 23, 2023 4:56 PM

Here we are getting some supporting data for our thesis that the cracks in the employment and labor siotuation, will likely grow progressively wider. Recent hints of softness in the jobs data should progressively grow softer.

Nick Timiraos
The US economy added 306,000 fewer jobs than previously estimated during the March 2022-23 period, according to the preliminary estimate of annual benchmark revisions to the establishment survey . . .
Read 8 tweets
Robert P. Balan Profile picture
Aug 22, 2023
1/x
$ES_F $NQ_F $SPY $QQQ $IWM $TNX $TLT $GLD #BTC #Bitcoin

Predictive Analytic Models (PAM)
Robert P. Balan
Aug 21, 2023 10:49 AM
(Late Post)

EUROPEAN SESSION BRIEF:

FURTHER 10YR YIELD AND DXY DECLINES ON PROFIT-TAKING, AHEAD OF JACKSON HOLE EVENT, ALTHOUGH YIELD TOPPING OUT REMAIN "CHAOTIC"; WE ADD LONG RISK ASSETS SENSITVE TO DXY AS DXY LEADS THE YIELD TO THE DOWNSIDE; COVARS MAY BE NOW REVERTING TO NORMAL

I am looking at the way pure T-Bill Issuance has screwed the entire liquidity process. The weird, variable covar between the Yield and SPX started when the Treasury massively issued T-Bills, and Bills alone (see chart below), as from May 29.

I am starting to think that once Treasury goes into Bond plus Bill Issuance again (as was the norm), the liquidity covars will snap back to normal.

If we get an SPX rally from here, as we expect, (SPX inverted in the chart above), that maybe indicate that the liquidity covars are reverting to normal (a big relief to all of us). Note that the Treasury has started to issue both Bills and Bonds/Notes.
2/x
 Robert P. Balan
Aug 21, 2023 10:52 AM

The 5Yr 5Yr "model" suggests moderating pressures on the 10Yr Yield, which my see further declines until mid-September. Image
3/X
 If the covars normalize, then the Net Liquidity thesis may become useful again. That happens if/when the SPX/equities resume the uptrend, alongside rising financial liquidity. Image
Read 6 tweets
Robert P. Balan Profile picture
Aug 18, 2023
1/X
 $ES_F $NQ_F $SPY $QQQ $IWM $TNX $TLT $GLD #BTC #Bitcoin

Predictive Analytic Models (PAM)
Robert P. Balan
Aug 17, 2023 2:36 PM
(Late post)

PRE-NY OPEN BRIEF:

THERE'S DICHOTOMY BETWEEN THE FALLING DXY AND RISING 10YR YIELD; WE BELIEVE THE DXY WINS THIS ONE -- SHARP DXY DECLINES WE JUST SAW SUGGEST THE PRESSURE ON CHINA TO "DEFEND" CNY HAS PEAKED; A 10YR YIELD TOP FOLLOWS SHORTLY (AND HOPEFULLY, EQUITIES RISE AS CONSEQUENCE)

The fear of a China Treasury dump is what has been pushing up Yields and the DXY since last week. It is not the old FOMC statement that is doing it -- it is the fear that China will dump Treasuries to defend the CNY.

However, China never defended the CNY (except at the time when there was a massive outflow of domestic capital in the mid-1990s). But there is absolute no chance of that happening again -- there can never be again that kind of massive domestic capital outflow.

The PBoC and the SAFE have plugged all the large holes via which that can happen. No chance. There is very little credence to the speculation that Treasuries will be sold to "protect" the weak CNY. In fact, China is loving that weakness, although not too obviously, as a weak CNY also tends to scare away precious FDI.

And, oh, by the way, changes of the 10Yr yield lag behind the changes of China exports by 2 quarters (see chart below). The 10Yr Yield should fall, not rise.
2/X
 Robert P. Balan
Aug 17, 2023 1:20 PM

The DXY, for once is leading the 10Yr yield -- rightfully so. If the US Dollar (DXY) weakens, then there little risk of the PBoC selling US Treasuries to try and prop up the CNY.

Assuming that China want to firm up CNY is a cockamamie idea foisted by the clueless -- China is always desirous of a weak CNY to bolster exports -- which is the only sector that is delivering results in China right now.

To believe that China will do something to damage that success now (if CNY strengthens) is downright inane.
3/X
Our O/N RRP "model" suggests that the roll-over in 10Yr Yield is now due, probably even today. This construct has been tracking the ups and downs of the 10Yr yield quite well since the RRP facility becase the primary driver of shadow banking liquidity.

If it still works, a top in the Yield today may see a short-term bottom by mid-September.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(