Tom Nichols Profile picture
Apr 23 7 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
For all of you who think Musk is some agent of Saudi investors or other nefarious actors who you think want to destroy Twitter, consider this: They're probably wincing right now. States with agendas want a strong and authoritative Twitter, not a joke site. Bear with me. /1
If your goal is to spread your agenda, you want the venue to be respected, full of dependable sources, so that your influence operations can be one more among those sources. If you're putting out bullshit, you want it on the same rack as the NYT and WaPo, not tabloids. /2
You also want to use your influence with the owner so that when you slip pollution into the info stream, it doesn't get lost. There are things regimes want to communicate. You want to create sources that *look* dependable and real. /3
Now, I get it that there's a theory that what you really want is to create a shitstorm so chaotic that no one knows what's what, but that's not nearly as a useful and you're not gonna spend billions just to let a child troll everyone. /4
My point is that what you're seeing right now doesn't help bad regimes. Musk is now giving gold badges to established media, but the rest of the site (where influence ops would need some stability and reliability) is now much less useful. /5
For the people who read tabloids and believe anything anyway, nothing here will make a difference. But the ability to impact a reasonable number of reasonable people is reduced when everything is a "look at me" pants-drop from Musk. /6
So, as usual, I'm suggesting that all this is not a plot, but merely that Musk has no idea what he's doing, and this is a lot of panic and chaos because he can't figure out (1) why people won't do what he's ordering them to do and (s) why he can't make money out of this site. /7x

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More from @RadioFreeTom

Apr 16
Since I hate to leave a debate without granting at least some points to my critics - seriously - let me now tell what I *do* worry about when it comes to American fascism.

Because I am not Pollyanna on this stuff. And I worry more than you might think. /1
The things I look from a US fascist movement:
1. Organized campaigns of violence against democratic institutions, including courts, legislatures, and the press. (One jacquerie on J6 isn't it, but it was a *severe* test.) Armed ppl in legislative chambers has happened. Red flag./2
If that violence stops the functioning of courts and other institutions. (Again, *organized violence - not just one-offs, lone wolves, or some whack-job rioters.) I was, I will admit, apprehensive about how Trump's arraignment would go.
It went well. Good. /2
Read 11 tweets
Apr 15
A longish and quixotic thread on the misuse of "fascism."

Why does it matter what we call things? Because labels tend to guide choices and allocation of attention and political resources. So I'm going to give this a try.
/1
Fascist regimes, as we knew them in the 20th century, have some things in common with the current American right: cult of personality, vicious nostalgia, and anti-intellectualism. But that describes *many* authoritarian regimes. Why is "fascism" different and more dangerous? /2
Because fascist regimes had articulated ideologies, highly disciplined cadres, well-developed party structures, and bureaucratized chains of command. This made them more resilient and highly dangerous because they were focused and effective. /3
Read 20 tweets
Apr 13
I'm going to comment here because this is an interesting "death of expertise" problem. This gent checked on me at Google Scholar, and says, pshaw, these are all commercial publications.

But...Google Scholar doesn't list stuff like that. These are all academic pub citations. /1
The reason this is a problem is that when laypeople say "I want to check your credentials as an expert," often they have no idea what they're looking at.
This is why instititutions mediate such questions. You might not know who I am, but you know what Oxford is. /2
I ran into this when trying to explain to my military colleagues why an academic CV is like a fitrep: You have to be in that profession to understand what you're looking at. If you assume that you can reach those judgments on your own, without reference to institutions...well. /3
Read 4 tweets
Apr 12
Some of you keep sending this to me and I think you should all treat this more skeptically. A lot of what he was talking about was projection about what was really happening inside the Soviet Union in the 1970s when he was defecting. /1
I mean, this is almost 40 years ago, 1984, when the Soviet Union is imploding, is about six years from a complete collapse, and America is approaching the zenith of its power. Bezmenov was not a psychic. /2
Remember, the KGB wasn’t all that good at destabilizing democracies. One reason Putin has always been so angry is that he bought into all this bullshit, and then had to stand there and watch the entire Soviet empire collapse in a matter of months. /3
Read 4 tweets
Apr 2
Okay, so at the risk of more fury from DS9 and TNG and VOY fans, I don't like long, drawn-out story arcs with moody, troubled characters. Those series, imo, lost the sense of fun and wonder that made ST: TOS the great show it was. The show that's recaptured that? SNW.

But-
/1
In my view, the third best series in the franchise after TOS and SNW is... ENT. Yes, it went off the rails eventually. (The temporal war, something something, hurr durr) but when it began, it had the same sense of danger and fun and unpredictability that TOS had. /2
I don't need soap operas in space. And holodecks, and androids with cats, and holo-doctors, and yadda yadda...yikes. Come on. Boring. Get in a ship, and boldly go places while developing interesting characters- and sure, dealing with the human condition. /3
Read 7 tweets
Mar 28
Talking with my Naval War College colleague and friend @FPRI_Orbis, and we are hard-pressed to think of any war we've studied or taught that matches the level of pure incompetence on the part of the Russians in this Ukraine war.
It's staggeringly stupid.
/1
@FPRI_Orbis There is no rhyme or reason to most Russian operations other than "go out and walk around until you make contact with the UKR forces and get waxed." It's as if they're being sent to go get killed at random grid markers by officers who have no idea what the objectives are. /2
I suppose you could draw a parallel here to search/destroy missions in Vietnam, but those missions attrited the enemy, not us. This is like search/destroy in reverse: "Go find the enemy, make contact, and let them kill you in 4-1 or 5-1 ratios." That's just insane.
/3
Read 6 tweets

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