Read on Twitter
1/n A lot happened this week in #tin land. Got to admit, I was resigned to waiting for semis to turn (and that will probably be a minute) - 2024+ theme is my guess. But, as @respeculator reminded everyone… dis function on the supply side is THE thesis.
2/n one of those not if, but when things to those watching closely. Great to see @TraderPamplona making an appearance this week. Nobody banged the drum harder on Myanmar than him.
3/n think of the Myanmar news as you choose. Operations there are not well documented. What we have known for a while is they have been running out of open pit, alluvial, high grade reserves.
4/n And, this is not the sort of signalling you expect from a producer thriving in the current price environment. This is a wounded animal.
5/n I heard some commentary re: Indonesia filling the void. There’s another potential catalyst there -I’m not holding my breath on - re: integrating the supply chain. Another potential supply side disruption, and the odds are not zero.
6/n PT Timah - the largest Info producer by far - does not make money below $30k USD/t. Tbh, they’d be dumb not to try to use #tin scarcity as a means to farm in on the downstream supply chain at this point. They have an abundant resource that is now, not so cheap to produce
7/n *Indo. I could go on. Had someone tag a post of mine to remind them in a week what happened. Well tin price are still up nicely week over week, but who gives a bollocks. Real money is not made in the resource sector by flipping a few percent here and there
8/n haste is punished hard, as moves tend to be violent. All you can do is @YellowLabLife once said… roughly: “you can research where to stand in the River, but then you’ve got to be patient”
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