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Cosmic Penguin Profile picture
@Cosmic_Penguin
Apr 25 • 21 tweets • 7 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Hmm...30 km/h at 80 meters height was the final data received for #HAKUTO_R. That's better than Beresheet and Chandrayaan 2's lander, but... Image
Yeah I'm actually not sure the data shown on the screen as "real telemetry" was actually not simulation. The presentation wasn't clear at that.

It's still better than Chang'e 4 lmao, where rumors of a *successful* landing ran for like 2 hours before official confirmation finally came. But that's, well, China so...
So after the Soviet Mars landing curse...there might be a non-China Moon landing curse?

(actually it's just that landing on another planetary body is just very damn hard)

Amateur tracking of radio signals saw an abrupt frequency change (usually indicating velocity change) at around the time of touchdown:

Hmm, not sure how to interpret this…
Well umm…
Probably the above refers to this?
Food for thought:
To read these graphs, it’s all about Doppler effects, i.e. frequency changes due to acceleration changes, and it’s complicated:
There’s also orbit of Moon to consider:
But this is the conclusion…and it’s not good.
Another observation, this one being of the reflection of the signal from the lunar surface picked-up on ground:
This is matching others’ conclusions…
…of the lander free-falling at close to bullet train speeds late in the descent.
I’m checking @ispace_inc’s own press conference held in Tokyo a few hours ago & it seems there’s a different scenario of #HAKUTO_R than English reports currently have now.

Per CEO (Takeshi Hakamada) & CTO (Ryo Ujiie), it seems there’s something wrong with the altitude readings.
If I understand correctly, the altitude reading drops to 0, then -ve, while the vertical velocity was nowhere near 0. The lander continues the braking burn but ran out of propellant midway & the lander was found in free fall prior to loss of contact.
(full conference notes below)
This would indicate certain errors between IMU/gyroscopes, landing radar & software. Similar situations had doomed @TeamSpaceIL’s Beresheet on the Moon & @ESA_ExoMars Schiaparelli on Mars in recent years, so @ispace_inc bumping into the same learning curve wouldn’t surprise me.
Independent radio observations are supporting this theory as well:
The free-fall might have started as early as ~90 seconds before loss of signal:
BTW as is expected for such a small company that specifically aims for lunar transportation, @ispace_inc's stocks at the Tokyo Stock Exchange has stopped trading after a 20% drop today.

Maybe it's time if you are optimistic about them bouncing back...

finance.yahoo.com/quote/9348.T?p…

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More from @Cosmic_Penguin

Cosmic Penguin Profile picture
Apr 27
Given that we might have investigated all those public data to death of the Starship launch a week ago, it might be time to hear some "expert opinions".

And who's better for this than the ones who really wanna make their own full Starship!

(this is actually written by a few engineers at the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT), *the* premium Chinese rocket builder for decades, to be published in a Chinese Society of Astronautics publication: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0_6N7KiLArQ8…)

Key points summary coming soon...
So here's the summary of the article:

First part is a basic description of Starship/Superheavy & I don't see much that deviates from what we know.

They did give some figures in the flight profile that seems to be their estimates: Image
Read 24 tweets
Cosmic Penguin Profile picture
Jun 20, 2022
SHOTS HAVE BEEN FIRED. I REPEAT, SHOTS HAVE BEEN FIRED.

In a seminar to Nanjing University, Sun Zezhou, program chief of Chinese Mars mission Tianwen-1, has reported on the Chinese Mars Sample Return mission.

TL;DR: Landing on Earth in July 2031, 2 years BEFORE NASA-ESA plans!
For those who don’t know, the Chinese plan is for a simpler 2 S/C profile, an Earth return orbiter S/C and a lander/MAV S/C, w/ digging right over the landing site & no rover involvement. It reminds me of @NASAJPL studies of MSR missions back in the 1990s, but w/ a dedicated ERO.
The current plans considers 2 possible mission schedules:

A. ERO launch Nov. 2028 -> MAV launch Dec. 2028 -> ERO arrival Aug. 2029 -> MAV landing Sep. 2029 -> ERO aerobraking complete Mar. 2030 -> MAV launch & sample transfer Mar. 2030 -> TEI Oct. 2030 -> Earth Landing Jul. 2031
Read 10 tweets
Cosmic Penguin Profile picture
Jun 19, 2022
No fairing separation views… #Globalstar
SECO-1 at 533 km altitude, 26280 km/h.
Whatever could have been riding on top seems to be targeting a circular ~535 km high, ~52 deg. inclination orbit per the telemetry read-outs right now. I don't think such an object - if it exists - will deploy after the 2nd burn now that the orbit post-SECO-1 ends up circular.
Read 15 tweets
Cosmic Penguin Profile picture
May 20, 2022
K e r b a l S p a c e P r o g r a m
Meanwhile back in Jiuquan NW China, the probably LM-2C (maybe w/ upper stage?) launch to polar orbit as mentioned above should occur within the next hour.
No news so far, this increases the chances of an upper stage being used.
Read 246 tweets
Cosmic Penguin Profile picture
Nov 18, 2021
“Our new Starship is now established, and has an appearance that promises revolution; but in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except Starlink and Chinese launches.” - (Not) Benjamin Franklin

‘Y know what? It’s the later’s time *again* - and there are 3 in next week!
The most painful part is, of course, no-one but smirking insiders know of anything certain about *any* of them, starting with a SSO launch from Taiyuan on November 20 ~01:50 UTC! The multiple drop zones *seems *to align w/ previous reports of a GF-11-03 launching on LM-4B. Maybe. Image
Meanwhile deep in the NW China deserts, 😂 is launching 😅 to SSO (again) from Jiuquan on November 22 ~23:50 UTC that requires dropping something deep in S Indian Ocean as well! I’m fainting already with no known candidates of what seems to be a LM-2C/D + upper stage (?) launch… Image
Read 84 tweets
Cosmic Penguin Profile picture
May 16, 2021
After some reading (including a trip down my memory lane of a Grade 7 me reading Spirit/Opportunity mission updates, which kick-started me in following real-time news of space missions) - this is indeed a much longer silence than we usually see.

For S/C that did operate on Mars surface, 1st imagery was released:

@MarsCuriosity/@NASAPersevere/@NASAInSight - ~real time
@MarsPhoenix - ~2 hours
Spirit/Opportunity - ~3-4 hours
Mars Pathfinder - ~8 hours (partly due to landing at night)
Vikings - within several hours
Another good comparison is Huygens on Titan w/ its 1st photos (& whatever data it collected on the way down) acquired within a few hours.
Lunar missions are not a good comparison as we have constant view of the site assuming global Earth ground station coverage.
Read 7 tweets

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