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I am building the financial model for a client & these numbers from NBET for January 2023 is very revealing:
EGBIN that does 1,320 megawatts (1.32 GW) gave the NBET capacity load worth 14,485,059,213 billion naira in its final settlement statement (FSS) for January 2023
EGBIN that does 1,320 megawatts (1.32 GW) gave the NBET capacity load worth 14,485,059,213 billion naira in its final settlement statement (FSS) for January 2023
The total remittance collections from end users and excess remittance collections came out at 58%.
The Govt thru:
• Payment Assurance Facility
• World Bank PSRO Loan
• FG grants
= 11.85%
Follow me, I am going somewhere,
This means there's an impairment of 30.25% that has
The Govt thru:
• Payment Assurance Facility
• World Bank PSRO Loan
• FG grants
= 11.85%
Follow me, I am going somewhere,
This means there's an impairment of 30.25% that has
accumulated for all other GENCOs from the historical tariff shortfall (over time) that has amounted to #300bn (reason the GENCOs are threatening to shutdown because of structure of Bill 33).
If the Tariff Shortfall is basically Cost Reflective Tariff- Actual Tariff (that makes
If the Tariff Shortfall is basically Cost Reflective Tariff- Actual Tariff (that makes
Minimum Remittance Order), and if 1 KW of electricity to end user is 56.43 naira in Abuja,
Then the problem with electricity are in the following areas:
1) NBET is not taking up all the load it gets from the GENCOs because of the estimated tariff shortfall
2) Discos have a 42%
Then the problem with electricity are in the following areas:
1) NBET is not taking up all the load it gets from the GENCOs because of the estimated tariff shortfall
2) Discos have a 42%
Loan impairment to GENCOs through NBET known as tariff shortfall, and classified as historical tariff shortly if not paid in billing cycle and carried forward.
3) GENCOs do not have incentive to raise their generation capacity because of impairments, cost of maintenance, cost of
3) GENCOs do not have incentive to raise their generation capacity because of impairments, cost of maintenance, cost of
gas, LPFO, cost of generation equipment.
4) The DISCOs have a 42% impairment because of power theft (meter bypass), prepaid meter installation rate at around 38% and the loss that comes from estimated billing
5) The transmission infrastructure of the grid stations managed by TCN
4) The DISCOs have a 42% impairment because of power theft (meter bypass), prepaid meter installation rate at around 38% and the loss that comes from estimated billing
5) The transmission infrastructure of the grid stations managed by TCN
Notice that the foundation of the entire problem is tariff shortfall that paralyzes the entire value chain,
If NBET is collapsed & states set up electricity boards that works with NERC to determine cost reflective tariff according to Bill Number 33 in the constitutional
If NBET is collapsed & states set up electricity boards that works with NERC to determine cost reflective tariff according to Bill Number 33 in the constitutional
amendments, you'll see these problems disappear one after another, and power supply will improve dramatically.
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