Thread by @nba_indepth

Suns vs Nuggets series preview and why I’m leaning Nuggets in 7 vs Suns in 6

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1// For Phoenix, Josh Okogie is by far their best POA defender for Jamal Murray, assuming he can hit 1/3 of his corner 3s and stay on the floor. I’m unsure Craig and Booker can reasonably roadblock a Murray-Jokic PnR…

Okogie also provides a place for Jokic to hide on defense. Sure, Ayton has a size mismatch on Gordon & MPJ, but he isn’t physically imposing, and Jokic will always be in the paint if he’s guarding Okogie…

2// The more obvious matchups include Gordon on Durant, and MPJ on Craig/Okogie. Craig has been on fire from the corners—can he keep it up? More importantly, can MPJ remain engaged on defense as a helper? If not, the PHX PnR will be even more devastating than it projects to be…

With Phoenix’s best screen navigators guarding Murray, that leaves MPJ with plenty opportunities to break free on offense either for backdoors, or moving 3s coming off solid screens. MPJ is a key watch on both ends.

3// Ayton has his hands full with Jokic. This puts pressure on Durant for help presence at the rim, meaning he probably guards and sags off Gordon; this opens up the floor for Jokic-Gordon inverse PnR, which Phoenix won’t have the back line help to deter Gordon from finishing.

4// It’s imperative for whoever Jokic guards to be active in the offense, even Josh Okogie. Force Jokic to guard PnR—empty side PnR should be a devastating point of attack for Booker and KD in particular.

…Durant was Phoenix’s most efficient PnR ball handler in R1, but ran it only about 1/4th the rate of Paul & Booker combined. With his pull up 3P shooting, he forces Denver to trap, creating consistent 4v3 offense for Ayton to facilitate in the roll.

5// Another point of emphasis is the offensive glass. Phoenix ranks 22nd percentile in Orebs w/ Ayton on, while Denver ranks 93rd percentile w/ Jokic on. Denver is more likely to get 2nd chances, so Phoenix must juice their offense elsewhere (transition, 3P volume, FTs etc)

6// I’m torn on this series—nearly a coin flip. In these spots, I usually lean to the team with home court advantage, and Denver’s (altitude) is one of the strongest in pro sports.

Current best odds to win series via Bet365:

1: Suns in 6
T-2: Suns in 7 / Nuggets in 7

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