Arnaud Bertrand Profile picture
Apr 29 10 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Important story that's been completely missed by Western media but is making the round in China.

In retaliation to Japan increasing support for Taiwan independence, China has started to put its weight behind the independence of the Ryukyu Islands (Okinawa, etc.)

A small 🧵
As a background to this, Ryukyu Islands have only been part of Japan since 1879, when it was annexed and renamed as "Okinawa Prefecture".

Before this it was an semi-independent state (tributary state to China) during 500+ years, called Ryukyu Kingdom.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryukyu_Ki…
Interestingly at the end of WW2, the Postdam declaration, which the Japanese accepted when they surrendered, determined that "Japanese sovereignty shall be limited to the islands of Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku" 🔽 so Okinawa wasn't there... Image
It's only in 1971, in the context of the cold war, that the US unilaterally (the Potsdam declaration being multilateral) decided to return the place to Japanese sovereignty with the signing of the "Okinawa Reversion Agreement".
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_Okin…
So back to today. China recently did a series of move with regards to Ryukyu/Okinawa.

First Wu Jianghao, the Chinese ambassador to Japan, met with Yoshimi Teruya, deputy governor of Okinawa, in Tokyo for a long closed-door meeting.
The outcome of the meeting was an announcement that China would now be officially calling Okinawa prefecture by its old name "琉球", i.e. Ryukyu.

Everyone can appreciate the symbolism here...
It was also decided that China would open a regional diplomatic office in "Ryukyu" and that the current Governor of Okinawa Prefecture, Denny Tamaki, would visit China in mid-May this year.
Another sign of China's position is that Qing Gang, China's Foreign Minister, during a keynote speech on April 21st at Lanting Forum referenced both the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Proclamation (in relations to Taiwan), both of which state that "Ryukyu" isn't part of Japan.
One also needs to remember that Okinawa is critically important for the US military, with 70%+ of the land in Japan that is exclusive to US military facilities concentrated in Okinawa (31 US military installations on the island)
I.e. This is China telling Japan and the US: if you incite Taiwan independence, we'll do the same with Ryukyu.

And interestingly China positions itself as guarantor of the post-WW2 order with reference to Potsdam (which says Taiwan is part of China but Ryukyu not part of Japan).

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More from @RnaudBertrand

Apr 28
Looks like De Santis' definition for why China is "the biggest threat to the US" is that it's the "biggest industrial power in the world".

Meaning it's a threat because economically successful... 🤔

He does add that this makes the US vulnerable because it depends on China...
...for so many things.

This is more logical but 1) surely those are American decisions so it's the US being a threat to itself in that regard and 2) when you depend on someone it doesn't make that person "a threat" per se, that dependance is only a problem if the relationship...
...has issues.

The US also depends on Canada for many things: are they "a threat"? So the threat isn't the other but actually the breakdown in the relationship, which ironically De Santis participes in causing by engaging in such scaremongering of China...
Read 8 tweets
Apr 28
What's stunning about Sullivan's speech is that it represents a huge ideological victory for China.

China made the US figure out that the neoliberal principles they held dear for decades were... wrong! And the US is now adopting a suspiciously China-like strategy.

Stunning!
An earlier small thread I made on it: "everything we've been saying and doing for 40 years was wrong"
Can you however adopt China's geopolitical and economic strategy without its political system? 🤔

We might in the end witness the greatest switcheroo in history: where America's attempt to transform China's political system through economic integration ends up the contrary 😋
Read 4 tweets
Apr 27
Worst article of the day award - heck maybe even the year - goes to Bloomberg for:

"The Global South Owes America Some Thanks

The rules-based order crafted after World War II has been favorable — transformative, even — for the developing world."
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Reminds me of this ⬇️ by John Oliver when he was still funny. He went to South Africa to meet apartheid nostalgists:
- [Oliver] Have whites ever been thanked for what they've brought Africa?
- [The guy, taking it at first degree] No, incredibly, never! 🤣
cc.com/video/i1l4jk/t…
How ungrateful of the Global South, unbelievable. After everything America has done for them... Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 27
Wow! Ray Dalio agrees that with regards to Taiwan "the greater provocations will most likely come from the American side" and he even suggests that "Americans are trying to bait [China] into a trap (a war) that they want to avoid."
linkedin.com/pulse/what-i-t… Image
He also says there's "a growing belief" in the world "that the US is in decline" and "no longer adequately guiding the world order".

He sees "a strong belief" that China will "play a leading role" in providing "stronger leadership, systems and institutions". Image
He says "virtually all countries want to stay out of the conflict with China" and that "it is widely believed that the US is being overly aggressive with China and that is threatening to the world order" Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 26
Wow, this is big : Zelensky holds ‘meaningful’ call with Xi Jinping, where they agreed that "China would send a special representative to Ukraine to hold talks with all parties on resolving the 'crisis'".
washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/…
Chinese readout of the call, translated by @ZichenWanghere ⬇️

Interesting points:
1) Xi said that "mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity is the political basis of China-Ukraine relations". No need to explain why that's huge...
eastisread.com/p/chinese-read…
2) Reference to the US?: "China is not the author of the crisis in Ukraine, nor is it a party to it. [China is a] responsible big country, we will neither watch the fire from across the river nor pour oil on the fire, nor will we take advantage of the opportunity to make profits"
Read 8 tweets
Apr 25
"America welcomes China’s economic modernization…so long as China’s development proceeds along lines that do not infringe on American leadership"

There's is no overstating how crazy, and astoundingly short-sighted, this is.
foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/24/ame…
This is a vision for an apartheid-like global order, where a nation with only 3% of the world's population insists on reserving itself the privilege of ruling the planet. No need to explain how this cannot fly.
And no need to explain how, if the US make this their "red line", it'll inevitably lead to conflict, like all unsustainable and unfair arrangements always do.

Over the long run only fairness and balance are sustainable.
Read 4 tweets

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