Our Local-Projections DiD offers a unified approach that encompasses many popular alternatives as specific instances; allows for extensions; and does it all using an OLS regression.
Why yet another DiD estimator?
* Simple, fast, easy to code (single regression command with an "if" statement)
* Flexible (eg, recurring treatments)
* Easily allows matching on pre-treatment outcomes and covariates
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Baseline version of LP-DiD: estimate a LP regression limiting to "clean controls" 3/
Baseline, unweighted, approach identifies a VW ATT.
Identical to the "stacked approach" of Cengiz Dube Lindner Zipperer ('19). But can do it without stacking!
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But that's just the beginning...LP-DiD can do many things!
Example: we derive the VWATT weights, so can easily re-weight & estimate an equal weighted ATT. We show the re-weighetd LP-DiD is numerically identical to Callaway and Sant'Anna ('20) but very easy/fast to compute.
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And if you reweight + use a broader pre-treatment period for differencing the outcome, the LP-DiD estimate is shown to be very close to the Borusyak, Jaravel, Spiess imputation estimator.
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You want more? We got more.
LP-DiD easily takes covariates (of course it does, it's an OLS regression!), including pre-treatment outcomes. The latter can be useful for constructing a counterfactual that guards against certain types of violations of parallel trends.
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Give us even more, you say? OK, you got it!
Easily incorporates continuous treatment (with additional assumptions needed for interpretation) or non-absorbing treatments (like minimum wages) where truly never-treated units rarely exist.
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For more, including performance in terms of MSE, bias, as well as computational speed, check out the paper!
Why is Immaculate Disinflation seen as win for #TeamTransitory?
Here need to look conditional (not just unconditional) predictions.
Big disinflation with no unemp hike is signature of supply healing. And supply healing was the key point of TT.
h/t @mtkonczal
Yes, rates rose a lot. Rate hikes could have led to: 1) reduction in inflation through inc in unemp lowering demand (main channel proposed) 2) increased unemp and little change in inflation (if supply stayed snarled).
Thankfully 2 didn't happen. Importantly, neither did 1.
This is not to say the higher rates had no effect on demand. However, the main postulated mechanism is through the labor market, leading to reduced incomes and demand. That certainly didn't happen. The signature of disinflation points to big supply easing. And that was TT point.
Measuring wage trends during downturns is hard as low-wage workers are more likely to get laid off. Esp true during Covid.
This is why comparing wages from 2021 to 2023 is misleading. Has caused confusion lately.
Here's the evidence you need to see this clearly.
🧵
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Background: we see clear rise in real (inflation adjusted wages) for most American workers that today have not only exceeded inflation, but are about where they'd be based on pre-pandemic trends.
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But what's the weird rise in wages just when the pandemic hit and then a slow reversal to trend over 2020/21?
It's a "composition effect": when low wage workers got laid off, it artificially raised the average wage. And when they returned, it pulled it down.
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Yes inflation has been painful. Both here and throughout the world.
But here's what we did: we kept companies hiring, jobs growing, raising pay. This is why U.S. workers have seen wages rise more than prices, more so than many other countries.
Voters may not link the tight labor market to rising wages, but it's a fact.
We show this in our paper, where tightness strongly predicts wage growth especially for bottom half of pay scale.
Even after accounting for any impact on inflation.
If Dems fail to make the case about how this tight labor market has helped protect pocketbooks against the global inflationary headwinds, that is akin to unilateral disarmament.
This great 1997 article by Bob Shiller has survey evidence on to why people dislike inflation: they don't believe wages would be very different if inflation were lower.
They think inflation makes them worse off from higher prices, as wages would be the same w/o inflation.
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Key point:
Striking contrast between economists versus populace:
In a better world, the American left would be defending the strong pro-full-employment policies pursued by Biden administration, and argue back against the specious claim much of the rise in inflation were caused by those.
Esp since it helped raise wages and lower inequality.
Instead, we have TikTok takes on the Silent Depression.
The political reality is depressing, indeed.
But it's, unfortunately, not silent.
You can be a dyed-in-the-wool leftist and think there are many injustices in the American economy. And still believe that full emp policies have helped most Americans to do better in spite of terrible headwinds of inflation (esp those in the middle and bottom of income spectrum).
An update to work with @davidautor & @AnnieMcGrew1.
The Unexpected Compression in wages has persisted, even as labor market tightness subsided.
Tl;dr ~40% of the rise in wage gap between 10th & 90th percentile in 1980-2019 was reversed in past 3 years. 🧵 nber.org/system/files/w…
Wage inequality fell over the past 3 years. There was a major compression in 2021-22.
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Real wages are up since pre-pandemic for lower 2/3, but especially at the bottom. Over the past year, wages grew more broadly, and faster than inflation. Relative wages are stabilizing. But no sign of reversal of compression.