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Bill Scher Profile picture
@billscher
May 2 • 4 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Funny thing about the swing state general election trial heats that test Trump & DeSantis: they are almost all from GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies, commissioned by Koch-network group Citizens Awareness Project citizenawarenessproject.com/research/

...
...Every one of the POS/CAP swing state polls has DeSantis outperforming Trump

citizenawarenessproject.com/research/

ajc.com/politics/polit…

...
...I'm aware of only two swing state general election trial heats not performed by POS/CAP

Nevada Independent has DeSantis performing better than Trump: thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-…

In NH, Emerson has Trump performing better than DeSantis: emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-…

...
...Bottom line, we need a lot more polling from other outfits before concluding DeSantis is indisputably stronger in swing states. (As I noted here washingtonmonthly.com/2023/04/27/des… DeSantis is NOT performing better in national polling.)

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More from @billscher

Bill Scher Profile picture
Mar 19
The @peterbakernyt int’vw of Ben Barnes nytimes.com/2023/03/18/us/… absolutely strengthens the case that the Reagan ‘80 campaign (but not necessarily Reagan) illegally tried to undermine talks w/Iran to free the hostages

But it doesn’t answer the Q if that’s *why* Iran delayed…
…as noted by Baker, Barnes did talk previously (if not as extensively) with historian @hwbrands for Brands’ Reagan bio…
…but Brands still concluded the effort was “almost certainly superfluous”…
Read 5 tweets
Bill Scher Profile picture
Jan 12
How Democrats should handle the current migrant influx, both rhetorically and substantively, is a vexing challenge. But one they need to meet or else they will turn on each other.

I have thoughts in the @monthly, but in short...
washingtonmonthly.com/2023/01/11/dem…
Dems need to communicate that the influx is a short-term problem but a long-term opportunity.

* We have a labor shortage and need workers.

* Many are fleeing broken socialist countries. America should be a bulwark against authoritarianism by welcoming those seeking freedom...
* Yet the huge number of people coming puts real strain on cities trying to provide immediate food, shelter, education, and work.

* We need to better manage the flow, so we can fix the problems and reap the benefits....
Read 6 tweets
Bill Scher Profile picture
Dec 13, 2022
DeSantis' decisions are utterly baffling to me. I obviously have to acknowledge his noxious bets have all paid off to date. But what in the Sam Hill the is the upside of going all in on Covid vaccine skepticism?
Here are some DeSantis/vaccine fact checks

governing.com/now/gov-ron-de…

factcheck.org/2022/01/sciche…

news4jax.com/news/2022/07/2…

cnn.com/videos/health/…

nbc-2.com/news/health/co…

washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…
Welp I guess DeSantis is going to run for prez as the anti-science candidate

(As a few others have wisely said to me, DeSantis can try to run to the right of Trump, who complained about Fauci but didn't fire him (which he didn't have the power to do))

Read 4 tweets
Bill Scher Profile picture
Dec 11, 2022
Taking this at face value, this is very naive thinking.

At minimum, she doesn’t need to go D->I to transcend partisanship get things done, as evidenced by her own legislative record

And it may make the task much harder…
…before, Sinema could pretty much count on full D caucus support for any bipartisan deal. The big challenge was getting the Rs, convincing them a deal didn’t go against their interests.

Now, she can’t assume every D will be invested in voting for a deal of hers…
…bc Sinema’s electoral interests are no longer shared by Democrats.

So she has to convince some number of senators in *both* parties to support a bill of hers, even though *both* parties want to replace her in 2024, and do not want her to be getting outsized credit…
Read 5 tweets
Bill Scher Profile picture
Dec 10, 2022
Hilarious. @cenkuygur (the self-appointed gatekeeper of progressivism who endorsed Rick Caruso over Karen Bass!) did a @TheYoungTurks segment just on this thread
@cenkuygur @TheYoungTurks Cenk says of me: "He came in as a progressive" in the blog days, but "a brother's got to earn a living in Washington" & "There's only one way to get your bread buttered in Washington. Kiss corporate ass."

Here's the real story of my career...

@cenkuygur @TheYoungTurks ...I was a salaried blogger with benefits for a progressive organization, Campaign for America's Future, for nearly 10 years. Not a huge salary but not bad. But I had views and analyses that didn't really fit on the company site...
Read 9 tweets
Bill Scher Profile picture
Dec 9, 2022
We may have ourselves a Joe Lieberman situation, in which progressives chase a moderate out of the party, but not out of the Senate, so the moderate — untethered to any progressive base — becomes way more obnoxious…
…at least in the Lieberman situation, progressives had a plausible rationale for a purge strategy. Lieberman was genuinely terrible on the Iraq War, CT was/is very blue, so trying to take him out came with little risk of handing the seat to the GOP…
…and yet it still didn’t work. Lieberman lost the primary, but won the general as an independent. He then, in the ACA process, played a major role in killing public option/Medicare buy in, a role that would have been much harder to play if he was still a D…
Read 9 tweets

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