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Chris Giles Profile picture
@ChrisGiles_
May 3 • 4 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Apt

Hard cheese (cheddar) prices up more than any other dairy product in the UK

#HardCheese Image
Buy peanut butter Image
Remember paracetamol is the active ingredient in Lemsip Image
This and other not so fun inflation facts in a useful new tool from @ONS

ons.gov.uk/economy/inflat…

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More from @ChrisGiles_

Chris Giles Profile picture
May 4
🚨🚨 Nerd alert......🚨🚨

How (not) to report a bank run that hasn't happened....

Journalism on potential bank runs is very difficult territory because reports can be self-fullfilling

The only rule is to be v v v v v careful

So I was surprised to see this Image
Is it contagion?
Was it large?
Did it even happen?

All good questions

Let's have a look...
2/
Take the "was it large" question first....

@bankofengland data shows some outflow of household deposits in its headline data

But it's clearly not large on any definition

And £5bn compared with the level of deposits of £1,817bn is small

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
Mar 31
Today I am a pig in sh*t...

I've been given access to the @FinancialTimes wizzy newish graphics package.

I'd like to know what you think is the best presentation of the same data...

It is the UK's poor post-covid economic performance (incl latest data today)

Base chart

1/
You can see this is real time because I've messed up the height of that chart

@theboysmithy who gave excellent training yesterday warned us not to make that rookie error

Fixed that

2/
Do you like a more traditional legend?

This can be interactive online - so click the legend to add and remove countries

3/
Read 9 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
Mar 14
The UK has gone from the best performing economy in the G7 to an also ran.

Why has this happened?

New big read

enterprise-sharing.ft.com/redeem/c17e9be…

In a single chart

1/
After the period of the financial crisis, which hit the UK very hard with its large financial sector…. There were 2 periods

2010-2016 where growth was lower than before but still internationally strong

2016+ when growth fell further and UK dropped down the G7 league table

2/
It’s not just Brexit. Policy flip-flops are singled out by many in deterring investment

As is now obvious - Brexit didn’t help

3/
Read 5 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
Feb 22
I've written an explainer on why the public finances are in much better shape than expected in November

A 🧵Does this vindicate Liz Truss' cconomic policy?

tl:dr NO

1/
ft.com/content/22e1f7…
First: Interest rates were lower in the autumn statment than when Truss was in office (and wasn't U-turning), so the public finances would have had to cope with the continued "moron premium" - now gone

2/ Image
Second: Truss proposed a £45bn of tax cuts and these were reversed with a fiscal tightening of £55bn by Hunt - so there was a £100bn difference (way bigger than the £30bn improvement in 2022-23 we've seen) ft.com/content/5daeca…
Read 9 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
Feb 14
Today’s UK labour market figures were remarkable.

Everyone appears to think the figures show their prior views were correct

The chancellor Jeremy Hunt said they showed the need to stick to his plan
The Centre for Ageing Better said it was all about the over 50s
Pantheon Macroeconomics, who think interest rates have peaked, said it showed slack opening up and no need for another interest rate rise
Read 8 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
Jan 4
Sunak promises action on growth and waiting lists ft.com/content/a9e783…

The 3 econ pledges are to
- halve inflation this year
- grow the economy
- get debt falling by 2024-25

1/
Everyone expects inflation to halve this year - even if it is still problematic by the end of the year it'll halve (almost certainly)

Getting growth by end 2024 is a pretty weak commitment (which is my reading of it as written).

2/
Having growth over this parliament is harder, but OBR reckons it is more likely than not. So not a stretch target. Also extraordinarily poor compared with other parliaments

Debt falling is also in the OBR forecast for 2024-25 - but this is due to known one-off BoE repayments

3/
Read 5 tweets

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