Thread by @brettmaverick_

this is a formidable guest piece by a treasury official in @RevolverNewsUSA

i agree with most of it but like most good but not great takes it misses the mark via omission and neglect not for lack of facts or argument

https://twitter.com/DarrenJBeattie/status/1653564031204990976

the author is correct that there is no country or bloc of countries that can take on the role the US and the US dollar system currently play in the global financial system; attempts to de-dollarize are real but they are mostly impotent

it's also true that dollar fear mongers overstate the rapidity to which the dollar can and will decay; they mimic climate alarmists that point to real problems but overstate armageddon and their predictions are predictably wrong

however

what pseudonymous Treasury official Jeremiah Jackson misses, and idk if this is deliberately misleading, a blindspot, or a point of disagreement, is the centrality of the euro-dollar market to USD reserve status and its weakening over medium to long term timelines

this isn't my opinion but rather the analysis of Zoltan Pozsar (Credit Suise) & Jeff Snider (Eurodollar University) two recognized experts--one institutional and the other an independent youtuber-- in the eurodollar system (shadow banking/money) & international finance

according to Snider, we have no idea what is actually going on in the shadow banking market (a black hole) but we know for a fact, the Fed is responding to liquidity crises in these markets; they're screaming with problems

the eurodollar market, the engine of the USD's reserve functions, itself replaced a previous system, not all at once, but slowly and likewise, overtime, the eurodollar market will be supplemented and then unseated by monies that can play the role of global reserve assets

moving on from snider, zoltan doesn't frame all this as the US vs other fiat options as the author tries to in the revolver piece but rather frames this as a battle between inside (fiat, bank, state, virtual) money vs outside (commodity, physical, energy, land, real,scarce) money

because of the US's own choices and in particular the financial sanctions levied against Russia, forces everyone to re-valuate of inside money to the downside and explore options; the neutral, risk-free, reserve currency grift is shown for what it actually is, a scam

bretton woods II was backed by inside money, according to zoltan

and

according to zoltan, bretton wood III will be backed by outside money

they come at these issues from different angles but both Snider & Zoltan agree

crypto-infrastructure and outside money--in combination--are poised to handle all of the functions the eurodollar market currently does, things it can't do, and do it all at greater speed and scale

i invite the official from the Treasury and/or @RevolverNewsUSA to respond to the concerns and framing of Zoltan and Snider and ignore weaker arguments that are easy for the author to dismantle

take on the steelmen, not the strawmen