Just a remarkable jobs report on virtually all the metrics that should matter, especially if you look through the details. Gonna try to thread all my thoughts in one place this time around.
The Prime-Age 25-54 Employment Rate adjusts for 1) aging and 2) changes in participation.
It reached a new cyclical high, highest in 22yrs.
Biden has already seen 10 months at 80%+
For comparison:
Trump: 7 months
Obama: 0 months
GWB: 18 months
Clinton: 56 months
Given where the labor market was in the United States was in January 2021 (substantially deeper hole than most OECD countries, not as much low-hanging fruit)...
The scale of the prime-age employment recovery has been remarkable.
Blows every other recovery out the water
Folks who tell you that labor force participation (LFPR) is the critical variable need to take note:
Gains in age-adjusted participation coincide w/ (and are driven by) outright employment gains.
Prime-age LFPR made another historic high. We are not "running out of workers"
To the extent that we should disfavor part-time underemployment and favor full-time jobs, the quality of jobs in this recovery has also been strong.
Prime-age *FULL-TIME* employment rates made yet another high!
0.4% gain from 72.2% to 72.6%. Way better than last two decades.
This recovery simply doesn't have the generationally disastrous qualities of the previous two recoveries.
The 2000s recovery was basically left incomplete.
The 2010s recovery took over a decade
The prime-age employment rate among black and African American persons has been rocketing up, another 0.3% gain from March to April.
Now at 78.4%, just shy of its January 1999 high of 78.8%
So much about this recovery and expansion worth celebrating...*and defending*
It's not as if employment gains among one group have come at the expense of other groups.
We are generally seeing a rising tide lift all groups, but especially powerful for those historically marginalized
Employment differentials keep narrowing, and are historically narrow
Coming into this report, biggest concern was in the "Permanent job losers" data that tracks layoff dynamics. (Job growth is about hiring vs layoffs)
The risk was rising layoffs might snowball, but permanent job losers fell in April, as did the # of people near-term unemployment
Prime-age 25-54 employment rate for women just cleared its April 2000 historical peak.
US remains a laggard vs advanced economies. Given likely household production incidence, need changes to both norms & policies to sustainably support further gains academic.oup.com/sf/article/97/…
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The DOE has instead cooked up excuse after excuse for why they cannot possibly be ready to buy now. Allegedly Congressionally mandated SPR sales and scheduled maintenance stop the DOE.
Wrong. The DOE can buy now to refill at a much later date. For a discounted price too!
Larry Summers and other commentators (and even Fed officials) like to claim at an abstract level that Fed policy 'controls the overall level of [aggregate] demand.'
This description is somewhere between deceptive and just plain wrong.
We got downside revisions to the January year-over readings and more downside info relative to what our nowcasts were already indicating (a downside 'miss' vs consensus)
Core Services Ex Housing held surprisingly steady due to "Dark Spaces" of PCE not measured via CPI or PPI
There are two key dark spaces that dragged meaningfully on Core Services Ex Housing PCE that have potential to show more deceleration over the rest of the calendar year:
1. Imputed Financial Services 2. Input Cost Compensation-Based Indices
Core Services Ex Housing comes in soft vs our nowcast:
0.27% Actual vs. 0.40% Nowcast
Our core PCE nowcast was stil on the right side of consensus for the second consecutive month in a row:
0.30% actual vs 0.349% corecast vs 0.40% consensus.
We'll have a longer recap shortly but if you want to support our high-frequency work (including live nowcasts of inflation), consider becoming a Premium Donor. You'll get access to our High-Frequency Descriptive Analysis distribution
Oil prices were in the President's range for repurchasing crude oil (< $67-$72 on West Texas Intermediate) for nearly two weeks. The President made this commitment in October.
The DOE did not sound prepared to back the commitment if oil prices stayed in the range for longer
The DOE's public comments (from Sec. Granholm) suggest that because the SPR is currently in the midst of Congressionally mandated sales and SPR maintenance scheduled for this year, the SPR *purchases* cannot happen this year. But *purchases* are not the same as *deliveries*
For this month, we're making our post-CPI update of our core PCE nowcast immediately public. It's on our High Frequency Descriptive Analysis distribution. Consider subscribing
The big gain this month came from headline inflation: energy services and food now working in a more favorable direction for disinflation
Core PCE is on track to stagnate year over year
Core Services Ex Housing PCE is on track to tick up year over year
6 takeaways.
The first three relate to some things we already highlighted: food services inflation outlook is improving, but rent and used cars are likely to catch Fed inflation forecasts offsides