Raphael Nishimura Profile picture
May 10, 2023 40 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Tweeting now session "Come In and Stay a While: Recruiting and Measuring Attrition" at #AAPOR
Kyle (SSRS) starts the session talking about chronic-nonrespondents in the SSRS probability panel Image
Defining chronic nonrespondents -- people who have not responded the survey after at least six invitation. Image
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Principals of re-engaging chronic nonrespondents
High-incentive: up to $20
Promise of short "5 questions survey"

Last chance to continue to be part of the panel
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How to track chronic nonrespondents?
Do they actually continuing answering the survey or do they drop (hit-and-run) Image
55.3% completed 1 or more surveys after re-engagements.
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Next: Image
Kyle continues the session to compare non-internet and web-reluctant panelists. Some concerns regarding under-coverage here. Image
Multi-mode vs Internet enabling approach
Pros and Cons with each approach:
Internet enabling is expensive at front cost, but cheaper later
Multi-mode allows respondents yo answer on their mode of preference, but measure error differences.
Asked web-relunctant panelists why they prefer taking the survey over the phone instead of online. Image
I would add: because depending on the topic, they should be concerned about coverage error Image
The paths panelists of the SSRS panel can answer the surveys: Image
66% of the phone panelists says they prefer to continue taking the survey over the phone
54% for web-relunctant
91% for non-internet
Non-internet panelists are older and less educated than web-relunctant panelists
Summary/Take-aways
Non-internet users are different than web-relunctant users
Choice of mode allows to panelists answer the survey on the mode of their choice and capture non-internet users
Next is Fei He (Ipsos) talking about innovations in recruiting non-internte households in KnowldgePanel Image
6% adults in the US don't have internet at home. They then to ve older, less educated, low-income and Hispanic.
KnowledgePanel recruitment by a mail sample recruitment with a pre-paid incentive.
For the non-internet panelists, they are provided internet.
Older methodology: Dial-up service with notebooks
Nee methodology: Tablet with a mobile plan
Panelists become active quicker with new methodology Image
Table has lower attrition than dial-up service with laptop Image
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Next is Kevin Tolliver (US Census Bureau) talk about identifying key factors that lead to attrition in US Census Bureau demographic surveys Image
Analyzed the following surveys:
American Household Survey (AHS)
Current Population Survey (CPS)
National Survey of College Graduates (NSCG)
Survey of Income Program Participation (SIPP)

Four very different surveys!
Tested various characteristics relation to attrition with Wald Chi-square test and corresponding odds ratio
Based on these results, built attrition prediction models.
Objective is to predict attrition in one survey based on data of other survey
Then, these prediction models can be used to identify specific groups that have higher attrition propensity
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Attrition prediction models were all not great 😭
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And that's a wrap for this session
/TheEnd
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More from @rnishimura

Aug 6
🚨🇻🇪 Walter Mebane, pesquisador da Universidade de Michigan reconhecido como um dos maiores especialistas em detecção de fraude eleitoral do mundo, acaba de postar um working paper sobre as atas disponibilizadas pela oposição na Venezuela das eleições presidenciais de 2024. 🧵
Utilizando ferramentas estatísticas de perícia eleitoral (eforensics), ele não encontra nenhuma evidência de fraudes incrementais ou extremas nas eleições segundo as atas publicadas pela oposição (). + resultadosconvzla.com
Image
Usando essas atas, ele calcula que probabilidade de não ter ocorrido fraude (π_1) seja de 99,97%.
Ele também calcula que a probabilidade de ter ocorrido fraudes incrementais (π_2) seja de 0,0185% e de ter ocorrido fraudes extremas (π_3) seja de 0,0114%. + Image
Read 10 tweets
Dec 31, 2023
Por quê dizemos que, probabilisticamente, o valor esperado para a Mega Sena é negativo? Segue aqui... 🧵
Primeiramente, precisamos fazer algumas suposições para o cálculo:
1) Uma aposta simples de 6 números, custando R$4,50
2) Prêmio de se acertar os 6 números da Mega da Virada de R$ 132.418.255,11
3) Um único acertador da sena
4) Desconsiderar os prêmios das quinas e quadras
+
A suposição 2 não é exatamente factível, pois, salvo engano, esse é o valor do prêmio total a ser distribuído entre acertadores da sena, quina e quadra. Logo, essa é uma suposição conservadora, no sentido de que o ganho esperado de fato será menor do que o calculado. +
Read 24 tweets
May 12, 2023
Live tweeting session Detection and Mitigation: Developing Monitoring Tools to Ensure Quality in Interviewer-Administered Data Collection at #AAPOR
First is Joe Murphy (RTI) presenting A Dashboard for Field Survey Data Quality Management Image
Why an *interactive* dashboard?
Different users, different needs
Gives user control to what they need
Read 19 tweets
May 12, 2023
Live tweeting the panel of Elections and Nonresponse now here at #AAPOR
First is Cameron McPhee (SSRS) presenting Underestimation or Overcorrection? an Evaluation of Weighting and Likely-Voter Identification in 2022 Pre-Election Polls Image
2022 Election Polls did really well, with maybe some under-estimation of Democrats Image
Read 40 tweets
May 12, 2023
Live tweeting Methods and Election Polling at #AAPOR here
First is Mike Witherly presenting The Effect of Random Ballot Order in the 2018 and 2022 City of Vancouver Municipal Elections Image
Vancouver municipal elections:
Rare instance of down ballot races
Read 40 tweets
May 11, 2023
Live tweeting the #AAPOR session The Panel on the Panel: Development and Testing of a Probability-Based, Nationally-Representative Survey Panel for Federal Use
First is Victoria Dounoucus (RTI) presenting Qualitative Work to Inform Contact Materials and Baseline Questions for the Ask U.S. Panel Pilot Image
Cognitive interview in Microsoft Teams for ~1 hour, with 30 interview (21 in English, 9 in Spanish)
Read 34 tweets

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