Raphael Nishimura Profile picture
May 11, 2023 34 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Live tweeting the #AAPOR session The Panel on the Panel: Development and Testing of a Probability-Based, Nationally-Representative Survey Panel for Federal Use
First is Victoria Dounoucus (RTI) presenting Qualitative Work to Inform Contact Materials and Baseline Questions for the Ask U.S. Panel Pilot Image
Cognitive interview in Microsoft Teams for ~1 hour, with 30 interview (21 in English, 9 in Spanish)
First they tested the logo.
Winner logo was #4:
They like the US map and how the check mark indicated action Image
Asked their understanding of "panel"
They understood was a selected sample for a survey, but did not mention participating in the survey over repeated times
When asked again after receiving some information about the panel the understanding continues the same.
Action: Including the expression "over time" in the invitation letter to clarify that.
Next presenter is Dustin Williams (RTI) presenting Methods and Experimental Evaluation of Strategies for Online Panel Recruitment Image
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Respondents with no internet were provided a tablet with a paid internet plan.
4 of 53 respondents that were provided a table completed the topical survey and none completed the final survey 😱😅
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Response Rates Image
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Next is Amanda Smith (RTI) talking about Just Scan It: The Effectiveness of Including QR Codes in Panel Recruitment Materials Image
Why QR codes?
Reduce burden and mitigate error in typing URLs
Pre-COVID: QR codes were not very often used
Post-COVID: QR are everywhere! (Seriously! Can we just stop using QR codes for menu restaurants? 😛
Two mechanisms to acess web survey:
1) QR code
2) URL

Note: taking this pic was a bit difficult because my phone kept trying to read the QR code 😂 Image
Much higher use of QR code than previous study! Image
Half of mobile respondents used QR code and the majority of them are smartphones Image
Characteristics by model of access ImageImageImage
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Next is Carlos Macuada (RTI) talking about Tailoring Materials to Respondents: Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Survey Experiments Image
To tailor the survey materials we need to have a good understanding of the population.
Are there differences across different subgroups with respect to certain design features?
Used BART to answer this question.
Results: ImageImageImageImage
Next and last presenter of the session is Emilia Peytcheva (RTI) presenting Evaluation of Nonresponse Bias in the Ask U.S. Panel Pilot Image
Focus on nonresponse bias at receuitment
Two-phase design with subsampling for nonresponse:
* Face-to-face
* Additional $5 incentive
* Provide tables
Image
Weighted screening response rates:
Phase 1: 14%
Overall (Phase 1 + Phase 2): 37%
Image
ImageImage
Examined 298 estimates
14% of them found significant "bias"
Results: ImageImageImageImage
That's a wrap! Great session about how Census is working in building a national panel!
/TheEnd
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More from @rnishimura

Dec 31, 2024
💰 Vale a pena jogar na MEGA-SENA DA VIRADA?💰
Com um prêmio de R$600 milhões, caso você for o único acertador, o seu ganho esperado com uma aposta de 6 números seria de R$6,98. Então vale a pena fazer uma fezinha, certo?
Não tão rápido, vamos ver isso um pouco mais de perto! 🧵+
Primeiramente, eu explico no fio abaixo como esse ganho esperado é calculado. É importante se atentar às suposições desse cálculo, principalmente:
* Uma única aposta de 6 números
* Um único acertador da sena
* Desconsidera os prêmios das quinas e quadras
+
Logo, o ganho esperado de uma aposta com 6 números jogados, supondo-se um único acertador, seria de
E[G(X)] = G(X = 1)*P(X = 1) + G(X = 0)*P(X = 0) =
(R$600.000.000-R$5)*(1/50.063.860) + (R$0-R$5)*[1-(1/50.063.860)] = +R$6,98
+
Read 27 tweets
Aug 6, 2024
🚨🇻🇪 Walter Mebane, pesquisador da Universidade de Michigan reconhecido como um dos maiores especialistas em detecção de fraude eleitoral do mundo, acaba de postar um working paper sobre as atas disponibilizadas pela oposição na Venezuela das eleições presidenciais de 2024. 🧵
Utilizando ferramentas estatísticas de perícia eleitoral (eforensics), ele não encontra nenhuma evidência de fraudes incrementais ou extremas nas eleições segundo as atas publicadas pela oposição (). + resultadosconvzla.com
Image
Usando essas atas, ele calcula que probabilidade de não ter ocorrido fraude (π_1) seja de 99,97%.
Ele também calcula que a probabilidade de ter ocorrido fraudes incrementais (π_2) seja de 0,0185% e de ter ocorrido fraudes extremas (π_3) seja de 0,0114%. + Image
Read 10 tweets
Dec 31, 2023
Por quê dizemos que, probabilisticamente, o valor esperado para a Mega Sena é negativo? Segue aqui... 🧵
Primeiramente, precisamos fazer algumas suposições para o cálculo:
1) Uma aposta simples de 6 números, custando R$4,50
2) Prêmio de se acertar os 6 números da Mega da Virada de R$ 132.418.255,11
3) Um único acertador da sena
4) Desconsiderar os prêmios das quinas e quadras
+
A suposição 2 não é exatamente factível, pois, salvo engano, esse é o valor do prêmio total a ser distribuído entre acertadores da sena, quina e quadra. Logo, essa é uma suposição conservadora, no sentido de que o ganho esperado de fato será menor do que o calculado. +
Read 24 tweets
May 12, 2023
Live tweeting session Detection and Mitigation: Developing Monitoring Tools to Ensure Quality in Interviewer-Administered Data Collection at #AAPOR
First is Joe Murphy (RTI) presenting A Dashboard for Field Survey Data Quality Management Image
Why an *interactive* dashboard?
Different users, different needs
Gives user control to what they need
Read 19 tweets
May 12, 2023
Live tweeting the panel of Elections and Nonresponse now here at #AAPOR
First is Cameron McPhee (SSRS) presenting Underestimation or Overcorrection? an Evaluation of Weighting and Likely-Voter Identification in 2022 Pre-Election Polls Image
2022 Election Polls did really well, with maybe some under-estimation of Democrats Image
Read 40 tweets
May 12, 2023
Live tweeting Methods and Election Polling at #AAPOR here
First is Mike Witherly presenting The Effect of Random Ballot Order in the 2018 and 2022 City of Vancouver Municipal Elections Image
Vancouver municipal elections:
Rare instance of down ballot races
Read 40 tweets

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