Thread by @JoshKurlantzick

Polls predicted a large victory for the opposition parties. Most suggested the Pheu Thai party would wind up with the most seats in the lower house of parliament, but it appears Move Forward, the most progressive party, looks likely to win the most seats. #Thailandelection2023 /1

An earthquake. Move Forward was destined to win Bangkok but its nationwide appeal shows just how frustrated people are with many aspects of Thailand’s stagnant economy, politics, royalty, and society – and willing to cast their lot with a more radical party #ThailandElection /2

Pheu Thai isn’t decimated; they are on track to win a sizable number of seats, but not coming first – after early polls showing Pheu Thai dominating – is a bit of a setback for the Shinawtra-linked party. #ThailandElection /3

It may actually be the final shift that ultimately diminishes the appeal of Pheu Thai and the Shinawatras and moves Thailand toward less personality-based, more progressive parties like Move Forward. #ThailandElection /4

Together, however, it does appear (as of writing late Sun night Thai time) that the pro-democracy parties will dominate the number of seats in the lower house – over the 250 that would make a majority of the 500 lower house seats. #ThailandElections /5

To be fair, the Senate, combined with the smaller parties that won the rest of the seats, like Bhumjaithai Party and the Democrat Party – a shell of its former self -- could try to form some unwieldy coalition to block a Pheu Thai-Move Forward alliance. #ThailandElections2023 /6

Such a move – or something worse, like military aligned judges disqualifying Move Forward and Pheu Thai candidates, or even entire parties, or even a coup, is not impossible. #ThailandElections2023 /7

Move Forward in particular has challenged the power of the monarch and the dreaded 112 lese majeste law, and the pro-democracy parties clearly want to reduce the power of the military significantly. #ThailandElections2023 /8

it is still possible that Move Forward’s position will scare Pheu Thai off, and it will build a coalition in parliament with other parties, pro-military ones to make Pheu Thai the dominant force in parliament and isolate Move Forward. #Thailandelection2023 /9

Yet with such a massive popular wave, it makes it much harder than in 2019 for the Senate and the remaining parties linked to the military/monarchy to pull such shenanigans, since there has been an earthquake of support for pro-democracy parties. #Thailandelection2023 /10

And, were Pheu Thai to ignore this earthquake and band together with other parties rather than Move Forward, including military-linked ones,, it would reflect enormously poorly on Pheu Thai, supposedly committed to democracy, making it look greedy. #Thailandelection2023 /11

It would also put Pheu Thai’s PM at the mercy of an unwieldly coalition of parties, thus making that person a weak PM from the start. #Thailandelection2023 /12

It also would dramatically anger young Thais who believed that both Pheu Thai and Move Forward would deliver this democratic victory. Indeed, there will be a massive amount of pressure on Pheu Thai and Move Forward to immediately begin coalition talks. #Thailandelection2023 /fin

Happy to speak with any reporters as well