Thread by @BenBrownMU

This week's US Ag Export sales were mixed- corn experienced a better week and at the top of expectations while soybean exports fell below all trader expectations. Wheat and grain sorghum exports were roughly the same as the week before.

US corn reported shipments of 46.2 million bushels were up from 38.4 the week prior and roughly the same as the four-week rolling average of 46 million bushels. Traders had anticipated 27.6-47.2 million bushel providing some support to old crop markets.

USDA cut their 2022/23 corn export estimate 75 million bushels last Friday to 1,775 million bushels. Even with the cut in export target- current cumulative shipments remain 108 million bushels behind the seasonal pace needed to hit the new target with three 1/3 of the year left.

Largest destinations (more than 10%) of old crop US corn on the week were China 🇨🇳 (40%) and Mexico 🇲🇽 (30%).

Reported US grain sorghum shipments of 2.1 million bushels were up from 1.95 the week prior, but down from the 2.7 million bushel four-week rolling average. Cumulative sorghum shipments are 4 million behind pace but still plenty of time. China 🇨🇳 represented 99% of shipments.

Reported US wheat shipments of 8.9 million bushels were up from 7.9 million bushels the week prior but down from the four-week rolling average of 10.9 million bushels. Traders anticipated 4.6-12.9 million bushels.

With just a couple weeks left in the marketing year- export shipments have been sluggish and have fallen below the pace needed by 4 million bushels. Largest destinations for wheat were Mexico 🇲🇽 (20%), Japan 🇯🇵 (20%), Philippines 🇵🇭 (20%), Algeria 🇩🇿 (14%) and Nigeria 🇳🇬 (10%).

Reported export shipments of US soybeans were 5.4 million bushels- down from 14.6 the week prior and the four-week rolling average of 15.74 million bushels. The reported volume fell below all trader expectations of 5.5-18.4 million bushels providing a bearish tone.

Cumulative US soybean shipments are roughly 75 mil. bu. ahead of the pace needed for USDA's target- but the volume has really slowed and there have been few sales lately. Without an increase of sales later this summer- USDA might have to cut their old crop soybean export target.

Largest destinations of US soybeans last week were Mexico (38%) and Indonesia (16%). There was a broad distribution of small exports to 14 countries.