Andrew Pantazi Profile picture
May 16 22 tweets 13 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
NEW in Jax Mayor's race: First results are in and everything is still too close to call. Democrat Donna Deegan is up by 14 points against Daniel Davis, but these are the heavily Democratic-leaning early votes & mail votes. #jaxpol Image
Daniel Davis needs 59% of the remaining votes from Election Day to win.
Republicans made up 58% of the two-party Democratic & Republican voter turnout on Election Day, so this is a close race.
For other races to win:
D7 - @jimmyforjax needs just 30% of the remaining votes.
D9 - Tyrona Clark Murray needs 40% of the remaining votes
D14 - @rahmanj needs 41% of the remaining votes
Tonight we don't have precinct results on the elections office website because of some legal changes, otherwise I'd feel confident calling more races knowing where the remaining votes are coming from.
These early-counted votes make up 57% of the votes cast.

If Donna Deegan wins just 31% of the remaining 93k votes, she will win the mayorship.
Two race calls: @jimmyforjax has won District 7 and @RaulAriasJAX has won District 11.
@jimmyforjax @RaulAriasJAX With more ballots counted, @DanielDavisFL needs 66% of the remaining votes to be able to beat @DonnaDeegan.
About 80% of the ballots have been counted.
@jimmyforjax @RaulAriasJAX @DanielDavisFL @DonnaDeegan BREAKING: @DonnaDeegan is Jacksonville's next mayor, and Joyce Morgan is Duval's next property appraiser. #jaxpol
@jimmyforjax @RaulAriasJAX @DanielDavisFL @DonnaDeegan Daniel Davis outraised Deegan four-to-one, but he failed to win in Jacksonville, which has had a Republican mayor for all but four of the last 30 years.
Republican Chris Miller won City Council At-Large Group 5 over Democrat Charles Garrison.
Democrat @rahmanj has won City Council District 14, a new district created by court ordered after the City Council racially gerrymandered its previous map.
@rahmanj Joyce Morgan now has more than 50% of all ballots cast in her bid for Duval County Property Appraiser, and it's impossible for @JasonFischerFL to catch up to her.
@rahmanj @JasonFischerFL In her victory speech, @DonnaDeegan said: "Love won today."
She becomes the first woman to be Jacksonville's mayor and only the second Democrat in three decades.
@rahmanj @JasonFischerFL @DonnaDeegan In addition to everything else, this result comes in @GovRonDeSantis' NE FL backyard despite his endorsements of @DanielDavisFL for mayor and @JasonFischerFL for property appraiser.
@rahmanj @JasonFischerFL @DonnaDeegan @GovRonDeSantis @DanielDavisFL Deegan, in a relatable moment for many Jacksonville parents, said she lost her daughter to Tampa, and she wants to make Jacksonville a more attractive city. "Now I'm going to bring her back."
I have to think a factor in tonight's Democratic wins was Gov. DeSantis' absence from Jacksonville. While he's been busy governing & preparing for his nascent presidential campaign, he mostly avoided a very expensive ($17 mil raised) partisan mayoral campaign in his backyard.
Had DeSantis been here campaigning more, that may have made the difference in energizing Republicans to come out to the polls.

Instead two Democrats won county-wide, and Democrats flipped a City Council seat (D14) and held on to another seat (D9) despite being outspent 10-to-1.
I think the candidates here would've been happy to have DeSantis campaigning here.
Will there be breathless national reporting about what this means that a Republican mayoral candidate ran on a tough-on-crime, Moms-for-Liberty platform and lost in a Republican stronghold?

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More from @apantazi

May 16
I'll make this a thread on turnout throughout the day. To start: Here's what Election Day turnout looked like during the March jungle primary hour-by-hour. Republicans did well all day, but they particularly dominated turnout between 9a-4p. ImageImage
At 9:30 a.m. on Election Day in March, Democratic turnout was up by 3,211 votes.

Right now, Democrats have 3,399 more votes, despite coming into Election Day with a larger gap than last time. Republicans are more rapidly gaining on Democrats.
Council Districts 9 & 14 continue to have much higher Democratic turnout than in March, with competitive down-ballot races today.

~49.5% of D14 voters have been Democrats / 38.7% have been Republicans.

~53.3% of D9 voters have been Democrats / 36.4% have been Republicans.
Read 27 tweets
May 16
Today is Election Day in Jacksonville, the 12th most populous city in the US and one of the only major cities with a Republican strong mayor.

Republican @DanielDavisFL & Democrat @DonnaDeegan face each other in a runoff after March's jungle primary.
Even though Democrats lead turnout, Republicans usually make that up on Election Day. In March, the GOP overtook Democrats in turnout at 11:59 a.m. Image
Davis has made criminal justice a main theme. He has criticized Deegan for supporting protests after the George Floyd murder & for calling for police accountability, claiming accountability would put police officers in danger.
Read 14 tweets
Nov 2, 2022
I’m at today’s redistricting committee meeting. Jacksonville City Council President Terrance Freeman says if it looks like they won’t meet the court’s Nov. 8 deadline then he will ask city lawyers what to do next.

Background:
jaxtrib.org/2022/11/02/jac… Image
Councilwoman @RandyDeFoor_D14 says after a night of reflection, none of the proposed maps "reflect real-life human beings" and the maps don't address her concerns about splitting neighborhoods.
DeFoor says she will not vote for a map that ignores neighborhoods. She cited the neighborhood map that Jerry Holland sent me, and says the city must correct the court record (it told the court no neighborhood map exists).
Read 76 tweets
Nov 2, 2022
The Jacksonville City Council says it will not attempt to comply with the VRA with its court-ordered redistricting, claiming it's too late to do a voting analysis, even though the lawyers have known for nearly two years they needed such an analysis. jaxtrib.org/2022/11/02/jac…
The map drawers say they followed communities of interest. Yet here’s what they did to split Murray Hill, Riverside and Avondale into three districts: Image
The city claims it doesn’t have neighborhoods maps, even though one exists on its website and is used in real-estate filings and @lennycurry made a big deal about reestablishing the Neighborhoods Department that “created and maintains a Directory of Neighborhood Organizations.“
Read 7 tweets
Nov 1, 2022
This is an extraordinary order from Judge Howard denying Jacksonville's motion to stay her injunction against the City Council map. ecf.flmd.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/show_p…
She basically is calling the lawyers idiots, in legal-speak.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 1, 2022
I’m at the Jacksonville council meeting on redistricting where they’re passing out proposed maps & not sharing them with reporters or the public. I had filed a public records request before the meeting. The city’s lawyer says the city can wait a “reasonable time” before releasing
It’s apparently reasonable to have a copy of a public record and say you’re not gonna release it until after the City Council gets to see them and discuss them. This is a meeting supposedly designed to get public comment on maps they haven’t yet seen.
I was told "other materials should be coming in due course," but here's the city's OGC memo on redistricting. documentcloud.org/documents/2325…
Read 72 tweets

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