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May 17 11 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The MONTHLY ChartStorm - May 2023

$SPX $SPY $ES_F $VIX $STUDY

(thread)
Welcome to the inaugural MONTHLY ChartStorm — basically a digest of some of the most intriguing charts of the past month from the (now paywalled) Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm
1. Allocations vs Sentiment

Despite some of the most bearish sentiment readings in recent history, investors only slightly reduced equity allocations. And now they're reassessing the situation...

h/t @topdowncharts Image
2. Soft Landing? 

Wall Street analysts are basically predicting a soft landing for earnings, with consensus seeing a small dip and then strong recovery...

h/t @MikeZaccardi $SPX $SPY $MACRO Image
3. Recession Trading

Recessionary bear markets often see substantial rallies and periods of ranging/stalemate (...seem familiar?)

Stock prices can thus be very misleading in terms of false dawns and false hopes.

h/t @businesscycle $SPX $MACRO Image
4. Global Banks Gain the Upper Hand

After a decade-long relative bear market, global banks are making a comeback (thanks to disastrous performance of US banks) — major turning point in progress?

h/t @topdowncharts $XLF $KRE $KBE Image
5. Tech vs The Rest:  Peak or Plateau?

The dominance of tech relative performance can conclude with a bang (2000), a whimper (1970’s), or a plateau (1962)

h/t @Marlin_Capital $XLK $QQQ $NDX Image
6. Lopsided Markets

Passive index-tracking investors are wildly concentrated in the top 10 stocks.

Will things like AI drive a rebalancing?

h/t @pkedrosky Image
7. Global Stockmarket Seasonality 

This chart tracks the seasonal price patterns by month across a range of global equity indexes, and essentially goes to show that seasonality is a global thing.

And the seasons are changing…

h/t @laidler_ben Image
8. It Was a Good Day

Would you believe me if I told you even-dated days historically outperformed odd-dated days?

h/t @buildalpha Image
That's it for this month. 🤓

Check out the Weekly ChartStorm for more charts and timely updates on the market outlook: topdowncharts.com/chartstorm

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More from @Callum_Thomas

May 14
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
1. There are bull markets, bear markets, and bored markets. 🥱
2. Investment manager sentiment has plunged (and recent track record has been prescient, not contrarian), meanwhile retail buying is turning up. 🧐
Read 9 tweets
Apr 30
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:
1. April marks the 4th month in a row that the S&P500 closed above its 10-month moving average. Yet, the index remains below key overhead resistance levels.
2. We are heading into a seasonally sloppy patch for stock markets globally.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 29
Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
[Bearish = rising yields]
[Bullish = falling yields]
Rebound in bulls vs bears, but still net-bearish Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 26
Off-Topic ChartStorm on Bond Yields 👇🧵🚀

$MACRO $BONDS $FED $TNX $TLT $IEF
(from the unpaywalled post here: chartstorm.substack.com/p/off-topic-ch… )
1. “if this was a stock, it would be a decent setup”

(breakout, moving averages turning up, short-term moving average crossover)

Way I look at the world, if I see a technical chart like this to me it is a prompt to go and see if there's a there there...

h/t @jonathanharrier Image
Read 15 tweets
Jan 20
#ChartStorm Changes !!! 😯🤫😱

After overthinking about it for a long time,
I have decided to make a couple of changes to the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm

I will briefly explain what and why...
Firstly, I want to thank you for following me and the ChartStorm. Your interest, comments, and occasional praise mean a lot to me.

As some of you may be aware, I’ve been going at it on the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm *non-stop* every weekend for over 7 years now...
Throughout that time the basic format has been mostly unchanged (tweet out 10 charts on the stock market) -- but the content and commentary have grown and evolved over time, and as far as I can tell so too has its reputation and usefulness
Read 10 tweets
Dec 24, 2022
Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm time!!

$SPX $SPY $ES_F $VIX $STUDY
Slightly different format than usual given quieter time-of-year: focusing on some of the more timeless charts of the ChartStorms of the past year or so... 🤓🧐🤔
1. Plenty of folk out there telling you to buy and hold and dollar cost average and focus on the long-term

Which is all well and good, but just be mindful that lost decades are actually relatively common...

h/t @MikeZaccardi chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
Read 13 tweets

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