Hans Damen Profile picture
May 19, 2023 12 tweets 6 min read Read on X
10 lessons drawn from the war in Ukraine. Black Sea and Balkans Security Forum.
#bsbsf23 @NSC_Romania Image
Lesson 1. The will to fight is the single most important factor in war. We learn again that it is not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog that matters. #bsbsf23 Image
Lesson 2. Battlefield leadership comes next. Here, Mission Command provides an edge, but you need to be prepared for attrition (to take casualties) and fight on. #bsbf23 Image
Lesson 3. Command and Control is the most important warfighting function.
3A We must ruthlessly attack C2 (Counter-Command Activity (CCA). 
3B – We must radically adapt to protect our own C2. #bsbsf23 Image
Lesson 4. It takes skill to convert equipment into combat power.
Tactical principles for the employment of force on the Land hold good. Combined Arms Manoeuvre and the ability to layer weapon system effects remains foundational. Image
Lesson 5.  Air remains key,l Drone warfare is a game-changer, as is Counter-UAS (Counter-Drone) technology. #bsbsf23 Image
Lesson 6. Close out your Air Defence Gaps (if the enemy has Air Supremecy or even a Sensor height advantage and a Fires range advantage you will die).  #bsbsf23 Image
Lesson 7. The gap between emerging military technologies and available commercial technologies is very small. If you wait for the former and fail to invest in the latter soldiers will die. (Example BlackSky.) Image
Lesson 8. OSINT has come of age. Overcome self-imposed constraints to exploit OSINT in full (example Dataminr.) #bsbsf23 Image
Lesson 9. Deception – including the use of Decoys – is both a science and an art.  #bsbsf23 Image
Lesson 10. Joint Fires (both Precision and Area Fires) is the new God of War. #bsbsf23 Image

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More from @hansdamen

Aug 18
Nordstream en de geloofwaardige details

Iedereen heeft wel een afwijking en die van mij is dat ik minstens 52 thrillers en detectives per jaar lees. Als je duizenden van die boeken gelezen hebt, gaan de patronen op een gegeven moment wel opvallen. 🧵1/10 Image
Niet elke wanna be Tom Clancy of Elisabeth George houdt zich aan de wetten van ‘de Heldenreis’, maar veel hebben goed opgelet bij hun cursus creatief schrijven. Dat hebben degenen die de aanslag op de Nordstream gepland en/of uitgevoerd hebben ook gedaan. 2/10 Image
Clive Cussler (die van NUMA) zei: “Adventure is just putting characters in settings and locales that are unfamiliar.” Hoeveel verstand heeft de gemiddelde krantenlezer van duiken? Check, dus vanaf een zeilboot op 100 meter diepte drie bommen plaatsen is heel goed mogelijk. 3/10 Image
Read 11 tweets
Aug 7
Maandag 5 augustus heeft @defensie de ‘Defence Planning Capability Review’ over 2023 en 2024. Zeg maar het tweejaarlijkse rapport van @NATO over hoe Nederland het doet binnen het bondgenootschap. BLUF: het gaat een beetje de goede kant uit, maar het gaat nog niet goed. 🧵 Image
The proportion of GDP devoted to defence is expected (!) to increase significantly and meet the NATO guideline of at least 2%. While expenditure trends are positive, the Netherlands will need to further increase spending if it is to meet its NATO commitments. Image
The Netherlands is limited in its ability to fight today in the Land environment. The brigades suffer from shortfalls in firepower, CS and CSS assets, and low readiness (personnel, insufficient training, low levels of critical spare parts and BDMs). Image
Read 13 tweets
May 26
De Europese Verkiezingen zijn trending. Nou gaat het Europese Parlement er niet over, maar laten we eens kijken wat partijen over @defensie zeggen in hun partijprogramma’s. Draadje! Image
Opmerkelijk veel Defensie in het programma van @groenlinks en @pvda. 2% @nato norm, taakspecialisatie, strategische autonomie door meer Defensieindustrie, die dan wel weer geen winst mag maken. Het lijkt of beide partijen hun lijstje mochten inleveren. groenlinkspvda.nl/wp-content/upl…
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De @vvd wil dat het zwaartepunt van de EU verschuift van welvaart naar geopolitieke veiligheid. Verder minimaal 2% BNP voor @defensie en EU defensiefonds ook voor niet bondgenoten. Verder standaardisatie, gezamenlijke inkoop en versterking industrie. vvd.nl/wp-content/upl…
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Read 21 tweets
May 7, 2022
I did a presentation at ##EASD on Russian logistics in the Ukraine war. Some highlights in this thread. For starters I was looking for a nice picture of logistic vehicles on Red Square. Spoiler: this is what I found. 1/14
We’ve seen the security camera coverage of Russian soldiers looting food from shops. Logically, as what they get is years past it’s ‘use by’ date and probably just enough for one day. In the eighties that was the basic load also.; just one day of food. 2/14
Using ambulances for ammunition transport is a crime against International Humanitarian Law as such, but also shows the Russian level of attention to medical support. Not a lot. 3/14
Read 14 tweets
May 7, 2022
What should be the key elements of credible @NATO Forward Defence of the Baltics? #EASD 1/5
Land Domain:
Forward Based: Division HQ, selected combat support/combat service support forces (enablers)
- National Home Defence Forces: 1-2 brigades
- 1 Allied mechanised brigade (minus)
- repositioning of equipment, supplies and ammunition
#EASD 2/5
Reinforcement elements based in home countries:
- forces to complete the Allied mechanised brigade plus division-level combat support forces
- Command and control element (forward) at corps level.
#EASD 3/5
Read 5 tweets

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