10 lessons drawn from the war in Ukraine. Black Sea and Balkans Security Forum. #bsbsf23@NSC_Romania
Lesson 1. The will to fight is the single most important factor in war. We learn again that it is not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog that matters. #bsbsf23
Lesson 2. Battlefield leadership comes next. Here, Mission Command provides an edge, but you need to be prepared for attrition (to take casualties) and fight on. #bsbf23
Lesson 3. Command and Control is the most important warfighting function.
3A We must ruthlessly attack C2 (Counter-Command Activity (CCA).
3B – We must radically adapt to protect our own C2. #bsbsf23
Lesson 4. It takes skill to convert equipment into combat power.
Tactical principles for the employment of force on the Land hold good. Combined Arms Manoeuvre and the ability to layer weapon system effects remains foundational.
Lesson 5. Air remains key,l Drone warfare is a game-changer, as is Counter-UAS (Counter-Drone) technology. #bsbsf23
Lesson 6. Close out your Air Defence Gaps (if the enemy has Air Supremecy or even a Sensor height advantage and a Fires range advantage you will die). #bsbsf23
Lesson 7. The gap between emerging military technologies and available commercial technologies is very small. If you wait for the former and fail to invest in the latter soldiers will die. (Example BlackSky.)
Lesson 8. OSINT has come of age. Overcome self-imposed constraints to exploit OSINT in full (example Dataminr.) #bsbsf23
Lesson 9. Deception – including the use of Decoys – is both a science and an art. #bsbsf23
Lesson 10. Joint Fires (both Precision and Area Fires) is the new God of War. #bsbsf23
I did a presentation at ##EASD on Russian logistics in the Ukraine war. Some highlights in this thread. For starters I was looking for a nice picture of logistic vehicles on Red Square. Spoiler: this is what I found. 1/14
We’ve seen the security camera coverage of Russian soldiers looting food from shops. Logically, as what they get is years past it’s ‘use by’ date and probably just enough for one day. In the eighties that was the basic load also.; just one day of food. 2/14
Using ambulances for ammunition transport is a crime against International Humanitarian Law as such, but also shows the Russian level of attention to medical support. Not a lot. 3/14
What should be the key elements of credible @NATO Forward Defence of the Baltics? #EASD 1/5
Land Domain:
Forward Based: Division HQ, selected combat support/combat service support forces (enablers)
- National Home Defence Forces: 1-2 brigades
- 1 Allied mechanised brigade (minus)
- repositioning of equipment, supplies and ammunition #EASD 2/5
Reinforcement elements based in home countries:
- forces to complete the Allied mechanised brigade plus division-level combat support forces
- Command and control element (forward) at corps level. #EASD 3/5