I. (Why Friday night.
Why. @RBI) 1. Rs 2,000 note will be withdrawn from circulation. 2. It will not be illegal to hold it (like it was during #Demo to hold Rs 500 notes) 3. You can go an deposit as much as you want with bank branch.
Read this: rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_Preโฆ
II. 4. Can exchange 2,000 for lower notes unto Rs 20,000 a day starting May 23. It seems you can go to multiple branches to do Rs20k withdrawals 5. You have till Sept 30, 2023 for this 6. Property deals to be impacted. Cash component still 20-60% of deal rbi.org.in/Scripts/FAQVieโฆ
7. Large parallel market will emerge to change 2000 notes into smaller denominations 8. Panic will spread on rumours even though enough time is given 9. But digital India will be largely unaffected. 10. What happens after Sept 30? RBI FAQ is silent.
IV. 11. Full marks for carrying on the @FinMinIndia style of poor communication.
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1. Updating this.
There is still confusion on the nitty gritty of the move. But the big picture is this:
99% of the people who use credit cards have limits below the LRS threshold.
To catch the wrongdoing of a few, the entire system is being riled.
2. There is big data. We are a tech heavy country, why can't compliances be used to catch the bad guys? Why does everybody have to increase the cash outflow and compliance burden to this extent. 3. If the govt really needs to show muscle in tax collection, go after agri income?
4. The discontent on this move is the highest that I have picked up. It is affecting the average aspiring Indian who is beginning to step out.
Very badly thought through.
Repo is up by 50 bips
Repo is the rate at which RBI lends
A rate hike means an overall tightening of money and credit
Also works to dampen inflation
5 out of 6 members of the Monetary Policy Committee wanted a rate hike.
Inflation should be around 6% next year
Economy looks on a good growth path
High frequency indicators are good
Domestic demand is good
Exports suffer from global slowdown
Agri is resilient
The more I read about the 70s and 80s with a policy hat on, the more I remember growing up in those decades of a supply-starved nation. One landline phone in 30 service class homes. One car in 50. Short supply of milk. Water. Everything.
The disaster that is lived socialism.
Now, finally, reading Growth is Good (2013)
Jagdish Bhagwati @APanagariya
And to the credit of Indian entrepreneurs. After being humiliated and bound by idiotic rules for decades, in just a decade they changed the face of the market.
Thread on crypto and India's move to ban privately held 'currencies'.
1. China did this in Sept 21 suddenly.
India will debate a ban on private crypto currency in the Winter session of Parliament 21.
El Salvador is using Bitcoin as national currency.
Millions of people are 'invested' in various cryptos.
Who is right?
What should you do?
2. Look at some facts:
a. No viable country will hand over currency, monetary policy and stability to a privately held, volatile digital token. We will see national crypto currencies issued by governments and possibly a global one that has oversight of G20 or some such.
Thread on RBI's retail outreach. 1. I have argued for sometime (livemint.com/Money/bf2Wt6ERโฆ) now that Indian depositors pay a high cost for guaranteed return when they go via traditional life insurance policies and banks. These institutions shave off a large chunk as costs.
2. What if we, as retail depositors, could access government securities directly? Not for daily trading, which is highly risky. Not even for buying and selling on the secondary market, which is highly risky, but for buying at issue and holding to maturity.
3. Both interest and principal is guaranteed and there is no risk of this bank going under!
Great idea, but the pipes to the central bank are only for the authorised dealers and a retail outreach has traditionally cost too much money, time and work (therefore the cost factor).
Thread.
As you watched the Sensex soar 765.04 points today to close at 56,889.76, you were either getting a big dose of FOMO or were grinning, pleased with your equity allocation strategy being right.
1/n
I ask the FOMO crowd this: If you found the market was too risky or too high at 27,590.95 on 3 April 2020, why would you invest in it when it has more than doubled in 16 months? You saw the market crash from 41k down to below 28k and found the risk untakeable. 2/n
For you, the market was too risky at 28k. It is "too high" now.
I have heard the โtoo highโ cry many times, when the Sensex crossed..
4,3000 in 1992
5,000 in 2000
6,000 in 2004
10,000 in 2006
15,000 in 2007
20,000 in 2008
30,000 in 2017
40,000 in 2019
50,000 in 2021.
3/n