Thread by @onlydjole

🇪🇺⚡🇷🇺‼️ Panic in the EU: Two fronts against Russia have failed - Now the worst is coming‼️

The European Union has fallen into a "deep hole" in the hope of quickly breaking Russia, writes former British diplomat Alistair Crook in an article for Strategic Culture. 👇

The mood in the European Union is now very volatile: At the beginning of 2023, officials and media in Europe spread the claim that the upcoming counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine would turn the tide of the conflict in favor of Kiev. 👇

The headlines emphasize the theme that Russia is "on shaky legs", and will be able to break apart this spring, the author writes.

"However, now the message of the establishment has turned 180 degrees. It turned out that Russia is not "on shaky legs". 👇

And across Europe, there is a belated realization that Ukraine's offensive actions will not prove decisive, as was expected just a few weeks ago.

Now leading publications of the West and politicians bitterly admit the facts: Russia could not be defeated either on the 👇

military or the economic front. The Telegraph reports that the anti-Russian sanctions have been a complete failure.

Also, the Foreign Affairs newspaper calls on Europe and the USA to prepare for an even longer conflict with Russia, 👇

and the journalists of the American publication Politico raise the alarm, releasing information that the end of military aid to Ukraine is fast approaching.

Kruk points out that the EU is now gradually preparing for a long and exhausting confrontation with Russia, 👇

which Europe did not expect.

"Simply put, European leaders have dug themselves into a deep hole. European countries, getting rid of the old weapons that remained in their warehouses, transferring them to Kiev, 👇

darkly hoped that the upcoming spring-summer offensive would solve everything and that they would no longer have to deal with the problem - the conflict in Ukraine. Turns out that was a mistake: Now they're being asked to "dig deeper," the article says. 👇

By tying their fate to the Biden administration, European authorities have suffered incredible economic damage. Now the European Union is in danger of starting to compete with Moscow in the speed of arms production to at least match Russia's production capabilities. 👇

In the meantime, the US is actively pushing Brussels towards this scenario, the expert points out. The media is actively developing the thesis that Russia will not endure a long conflict. For example, Foreign Affair reports that the Russian Federation is having 👇

difficulty producing armored vehicles and is removing its old tanks as a result.

"Do these American journalists ever check the facts? Apparently not. In the first quarter of 2023, more tanks were produced in Russia than in the whole of 2022. 👇

Russia used to produce over 150-250 tanks a year, and Medvedev promised to increase that figure to 1.5 thousand units," writes Alistair Kruk.

It remains a mystery how the EU will react if the US openly demands that the bloc enter an arms race with Russia. 👇

To put it mildly, there are not enough experts and capacities in Europe, and the economy will have to be put on a war footing, which is fraught with even greater damage to the EU countries.

"Is there a way out of the "hole" that the EU has dug for itself? 👇

Yes - it's called "honesty". If the EU wants a quick end to the conflict, it must realize that there are two options available: Ukraine's surrender and a deal on Moscow's terms, or continue to completely drain Ukraine's ability to fight until its forces are exhausted. 👇

Honesty would require the EU to give up the delusion that Moscow will negotiate a settlement on Zelensky's terms, the expert said. Moreover, fairness would require the EU to admit that the economic war against Russia was a mistake that needs to be corrected.