And so, it would seem, Texas is trying to go for Massive Resistance 2.0, possibly in an attempt at undoing the Supreme Court rulings in the late 60s that led to the initial voucher programs in the US being ruled illegal and BJU losing their tax-exempt
I say "Massive Resistance 2.0", of note, because Christian Nationalism in its modern form arguably got its start via the fight against desegregation by unreconstructed Confederate-sympathisers, and the FIRST round of "private voucher programs".
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(Yes, this is going to be one of those little history lessons.)
So after Brown v BOE, and subsequent rulings that mandated schools be desegregated...a lot of Southern "Jim Crow" states were exceptionally Salty about this, and so basically set out a plan or three...
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To whit: First ordering schools to not desegregate, and to ignore orders to desegregate.
When the US government started sending in the National Guard to enforce these orders, the chuds in chief proceeded to double down by the equivalent of shooting themselves in the jimmy:
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Namely: "If we can't have segregated schools, then we just won't have schools at *all*".
On the cruder end, this involved chuds (including the KKK 2.0) blowing up schools that had the courage to integrate and threatening families that attended:
And on a legislative end, you had stuff like the Stanley Plan, which...ordered the defunding, and closure, of any school system that integrated in VA (similar mini-Stanleys were in place throughout the South) in what was called "Massive Resistance" segregationinamerica.eji.org/report/massive…
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And basically when schools were ordered to integrate, or when school boards decided to stop fighting the march of progress...the school systems would be shut down, and vouchers given to private, Protestant schools which coincidentially didn't admit African-Americans
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These "Segregation Academies" (as they got to be called) were founded by "Southern" branches of churches, many of which would later become part of Christian Nationalist and/or neo-Confederate movements (like the Southern Baptists and the PCA)
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and at least two of them (Pensacola Christian College and Bob Jones University) would become major players in Christian Nationalist curricula...and pretty much the shape of Christian Nationalist pro-Confederacy apology (including slavery revisionism) was formed there
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So basically when a school system would get shut down, white kids would get vouchers to go to the local Protestant "segregation academy" (and it was almost always Protestant); African-American kids got sweet FA as far as education in most cases.
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It was so bad, and went on for so long, that there are populations of African-Americans who grew up in the mid- to late-50s who almost never got to attend school unless they were in an area where the Society of Friends had set up "freedom schools"
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because the specific wording of these voucher laws generally prohibited giving vouchers to most integrated schools, but there was enough of a loophole for religious schools that the Quakers took advantage of it (and bless them for it).
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And this kept on until a series of court decisions starting in 1964, which ordered the desegregation of schools and the reopening of Prince Edward County's school system: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Griffin_v…
Which led to...modern voucher programs (seriously).
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Because the NEXT end-run was "OK, fine, we'll desegregate...but we're still handing out vouchers for segregation academies. As part of 'school choice' programs" *wink wink*.
Which was even referred to as "passive resistance".
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And *this* eventually led to another Supreme Court ruling, this time in 1968, which pretty much Officially Called Them On Their Bullshit, told them to Stop That, and ruled that state tax dollars for segregation academies was unconstitutional en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_v._…
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And there were subsequent rulings after that (some of which led to the first school busing programs), and the IRS also came to a decision that "segregation academies" could no longer be recipients of tax-exempt status
This caused BJU to lose its tax exempt
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And right around the time of segregation academies getting their groove on, and right around the time that schools were ordered to integrate...that's when the Christian Nationalist movement started feeling its oats and lobbying against desegregation theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
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And in fact a lot of the initial activism by Christian Nationalists was against Freedom Marches...and in support of segregation academies, many of which were now at risk of losing their tax exempt for being all racist on main slate.com/news-and-polit…
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In fact, the anti-reproductive-health stuff didn't heavily enter much of the Christian Nationalist movement until such time that "Traditionalist Catholics" (many of whom were salty over Vatican II) were recruited into the movement teenvogue.com/story/religiou…
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And that's why I've consistently been pointing out lately that the goal isn't them undoing *merely* Lawrence v Texas or Griswold v Connecticut, but *BROWN V BOARD OF EDUCATION* and pretty much EVERY decision from that point, and they're using the same playbook as with Roe
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And considering that the Christian Nationalist wing has been pretty much very mask off for the past four or five years (thereby confirming every word of what us #exvangelical folks have tried to warn you about for the past 50 years or so) one ignores this at one's peril
Polls don't vote. People do. Today and tomorrow is where we seal the deal and bring it home and that only happens when we vote in NUMBERS.
It looks good so far, but it's always better to get MOAR and make it OVERWHELMING--important in light of GOP lawfare threats
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So the things important for y'all voting on Election Day:
a) Many states require businesses to give you off time to vote
b) Need a way to get to polls? Most public transit agencies give free transportation, and Uber/Lyft give discounted rides, also Urban League can help
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@Politics_Polls @MorningConsult And here, I'm going to remind folks of my First Law of Political Polling:
Never, ever, *ever* trust any political polling group that refuses to publish its crosstabs freely and not locked up behind a paywall (including a paid subscription wall).
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@Politics_Polls @MorningConsult Yes, there's a VERY SPECIFIC reason I say Never Trust Anyone Who Won't Share Their Crosstabs Publicly And For Free.
Almost without *exception*, any group refusing to publish a breakout of basic things like "size of pool", "composition of pool", and so on is Hiding Something
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@Politics_Polls People talk a lot now about "herding" in polls. Probably THE most common way "herding" occurs is through issues of weighting members of a poll, and I'm going to lay out the many ways that just *weighting* the people in a pool can seriously fuck with a result
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So digging through the state-level Marist polls, and we are seeing more evidence (already indicated by both the CES national poll with 78k respondents AND previous Marist polls) of a "Dobbs Effect" that is reaching strongly even into white evangelical Christian pops
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So Marist is one of two polls that tend to be less hot garbage than most, and tend to go into some deeper details like sub-surveying of self-identified white evangelical Christians. And this is a MAJOR barometer for a Dobbs Effect, as I'll explain below
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Something like 15% of Americans self-identify as "white evangelicals" in larger religious surveys by PIRR and Pew Forum, and these populations (in deeper studies of Christian Nationalism and New Apostolic Reformation/Seven Mountains theology) are extremely R-trending
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Even IF Biden had outright called MAGAts "garbage" he'd not have been wrong and he would have arguably been CHARITABLE to *merely* call them "garbage" after that "Daily Scheisser Live" three-sheets-short-of-a-cross-burning Hate Rally at MSG
Like, literally, let's JUST go over what was pushed THIS WEEKEND AT AFOREMENTIONED HATE RALLY, and I will remind EVERYONE here that *all of this was explicitly approved to the point it showed up on teleprompters and in rehearsals* so they damn well KNEW what was up
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a) Has a shock "comedian"--who was so infamously racist he got banned from Joe Rogan's club, and who was originally going to include a routine referring to the VPOTUS as a <C-BOMB>--does the infamous "PR is a floating island of garbage" routine
And this is where I talk about a particular effect of WHY polling has gone to hell (and about all that you can get that's useful is things from crosstabs)
I have dubbed this the Straw Market Problem, and it's an issue even beyond political polls
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@garymauney @matthewjdowd More properly, I should refer to this as the Nassau Straw Market Problem, because it relates to a particularly infamous straw market (which does not exist anymore in its older form) and is an example of how aggressive capitalism and marketing can shit up *everything*
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@garymauney @matthewjdowd Up until 2 yrs ago, the Port of Nassau had its cruise ship terminal (1000s of ppl/day) empty its exit/entry into an outdoor vendor hall/outdoor mall you HAD to pass through to exit the port to get into downtown Nassau (the Straw Market in question)
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And just so people know I don't just look at GOP-friendly polls with a hairy eye, I look at ALL polls with a hairy eye: Big Village CARAVAN, which *is* looking good for Harris but STILL has methodology issues that can skew it rightward
So looking at their polling they appear to gather from "opt-in online panels", which is a real fancy term for "Used paid-survey portals".
Which that introduces a risk of pool-poisoning, as we've seen from sites that use YouGov in particular
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They also use some rather odd weighting for their grouping--in addition to ACS (which weights for population), it weights based on *vote in 2020*, which actually RISKS missing a lot of voters--much of GenZ and Gen Alpha only became registered voters in 2022 or this year
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