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I've been seeing a lot of folks on the centre and left cite Vienna as a model for what Ontario's housing system could look like.
And I've got to wonder if everyone has lost their minds.
A thread.
And I've got to wonder if everyone has lost their minds.
A thread.
Austria as a country, is experiencing slow population growth. In fact, they're expected to experience population decline very soon.
As such, their need to build more housing is rather limited.
As such, their need to build more housing is rather limited.
In the last 3 months, Ontario's population has grown by 123,747 people.
In the last 5 *years*, Austria's population has grown by 118,447.
Ontario has had more population growth in 3 months than Austria has in 5 years.
In the last 5 *years*, Austria's population has grown by 118,447.
Ontario has had more population growth in 3 months than Austria has in 5 years.
When it comes to the need to build more housing, Austria and Ontario aren't in the same league... they're not even playing the same sport.
But why are they growing at such different rates?
But why are they growing at such different rates?
Ontario's population growth is high because of robust immigration, the international student boom, as well as welcoming refugees from Ukraine (sadly, not as welcoming from other war-torn areas).
https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1659532646148608008?s=20
Ontario is doing an absolutely awful job of creating housing for this population growth, and, in particular, higher ed is bringing in a lot of international students with no idea how they'll be housed. But that's a different thread.
Austria, on the other hand, is working with Serbia and Hungary "signing a new pact that will see a more hard line approach to dealing with migrants". euronews.com/2022/11/17/ausβ¦
In short, it's a whole lot easier for a government to be a larger portion of new housing growth when that jurisdiction is deliberately keeping population growth, and housing demand, low.
That's not the Ontario I'd like to live in.
That's not the Ontario I'd like to live in.
There's this data point too.
https://twitter.com/builtforum/status/1661690791075487745?s=20
Here's another way to think about the housing issue...
CMHC says Canada needs to build roughly 5.8M homes (of all types) in the next decade.
If that were even physically possible, and if we could keep that cost down to 500K/unit, that means we need roughly 3T in investment.
CMHC says Canada needs to build roughly 5.8M homes (of all types) in the next decade.
If that were even physically possible, and if we could keep that cost down to 500K/unit, that means we need roughly 3T in investment.
That's (very roughly) $3 trillion in housing investment, in 10 years, to hit that CMHC target.
What proportion is going to come from government? 5%? 10%? 20%?
Say it's 20%? Where do we expect that $600 billion to come from?
What proportion is going to come from government? 5%? 10%? 20%?
Say it's 20%? Where do we expect that $600 billion to come from?
Then to go up to, say 33%, which is still below what many social housing advocates are calling for.
I don't see how Canadian governments, at all levels, can spend $1,000,000,000,000 on social housing alone in the next 10 years.
I don't see how Canadian governments, at all levels, can spend $1,000,000,000,000 on social housing alone in the next 10 years.
In short, a fast-growing population like Canada requires very high levels of private investment in housing, since governments simply don't have the resources to build to support that level of population growth.
In short, I don't think Ontario should be looking to Austria, of all places, on how to house a growing population.
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