Thread by @JoshEakle

One year ago, @LPMisesCaucus "took over" @LPNational.

The day of the convention, @MisesChair told @nickgillespie that "we'd know them by their fruits."

Now that they've had a year to run the party, let's take a look at those fruits.🧵

Let’s start with party membership growth month over month.

Since the takeover, we’ve seen a significant decline in party membership.

The party has lost 500 members each month this year and that’s escalating quickly.

Next, let’s look at the last 30 years of income for context.

Attached you’ll see both a yearly and quarterly breakdown.

The 2022/23 FEC filings show a 20% decline behind the rolling 5 yr average, the farthest behind since 2006. Quarterly filings show no reversal of this trend.

In the 2022/23 years, the second and fourth quarters have been the worst performing, while the third quarter is the second worst in 30 years.

The total revenue for these three quarters in 2022/23 is 25% less than the previous low in 2014 and 44% less than the 5-year average.

Also, if we rank each month’s fundraising performance to the same month in previous election years, August, January, February, March, and April have the worst revenue in the past 30 years, with July and December coming in at 2nd worst, and October at 3rd worst.

Party membership in 2022/23 was fairly unremarkable until the last 4 months when we started to see a very worrying trend and a divebomb in memberships.

This May-April year is the 2nd worst year in terms of membership in the past 20 years.

There is also a very atypical drop in membership at the beginning of 2023.

The recent drop-off is nearly 50% greater than the previous 20-year low.

The membership numbers are declining quickly at an unusual time in the 2-year cycle, with little sign of changing.

Monthly revenue per member is also at all-time lows.

In the past 20 years, the 6-month rolling average had never dipped below $8.33, until now. And we have been below that number for 5 straight months and in March 2023 the rolling 6-month average bottomed at $6.38.

If we compare the 2022/23 cumulative monthly revenue to cumulative monthly average of the past five election years, we see the convention bump, followed by a huge drop below historical averages.

At last check, the LP was $585K behind the average of the past 5 election years.

If we compare the membership growth of each month of 2022/23 to the average growth of the past 5 election years, we again see the convention bump and a significant drop-off.

The LP is 2,200 members behind the 5-election year average.

On the ballot access front, 2024 will likely be the first election in awhile that the party will not have 50-state ballot access.

There’s a lot to unpack here, the Independent Political Report put together a comprehensive summary of the status here:

independentpoliticalreport.com/2023/05/libert…

All of these figures were inflation-adjusted data taken from the FEC reports and publicly available data provided to LP Members.

Thanks to the @LP_CLC team and especially @JonathanTCasey for compiling this analysis.

Read the full report here: lpclc.org/2023/05/26/202…

I think the numbers speak for themselves: the party needs new leadership.

If you agree, join @LP_CLC and help us make the party relevant again.

lpclc.org