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Looking back over the 2020 Senate elections atm, and I have to say, I don't think incumbency has ever been as lousy an indicator of strength as in these elections.
Dem incumbents went 7/11 for outperforming Biden.
GOP incumbents went 10/17 for outperforming Trump.
Dem incumbents went 7/11 for outperforming Biden.
GOP incumbents went 10/17 for outperforming Trump.
Even open & appointed incumbent seats split 2-4 between outperforming Biden and outperforming Trump.
Might need to rethink the prior that Senate incumbents outperform the top of the ticket by default.
Might need to rethink the prior that Senate incumbents outperform the top of the ticket by default.
For comparison, in 2016, every Dem senator, and 19/22 GOP senators, outperformed the top of the ticket. And this was more or less the norm for like decades before this.
Remains to be seen if 2020 was an outlier or a paradigm shift, but my gut currently leans toward the latter.
Remains to be seen if 2020 was an outlier or a paradigm shift, but my gut currently leans toward the latter.
Did a diff comparison for 2022 (Senate vs House), and found some funny results:
Dem senators outran their counterparts in the House in 9/12 states, while GOP incumbents (minus Murk & Thune) only did so in 3/13.
Not really a measure of incumbency, but interesting nonetheless.
Dem senators outran their counterparts in the House in 9/12 states, while GOP incumbents (minus Murk & Thune) only did so in 3/13.
Not really a measure of incumbency, but interesting nonetheless.
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