Edward Lucas Profile picture
May 29, 2023 16 tweets 4 min read Read on X
More than 2 million people have signed the @Justice4Ukr petition calling for a Special international Tribunal to prosecute Russia’s crime of aggression. I encourage you all to add your name and share it with #SpecialTribunalNow.
A 🧵 on why this matters.
justice-for-ukraine.com
———
While you read these words, unimaginable horrors continue to unfold for over 40 million men, women, and children in Ukraine - from the Russian bombardment of families in their homes to the widespread killing, rape, torture, and deportation in Russian occupied territory.
These are all crimes. But there is one single crime that enabled them all. Because it was the choice of individuals in Russia to wage this brutal and unprovoked war of aggression against them. Individuals who must face justice for that decision.
—————
The determination to prosecute Nazis didn’t wait until after their defeat. It was during the darkest hours of WW2 in 1942 that allied and occupied governments-in-exile proposed it as the only way of ensuring lasting peace.
That resulted in both the tribunal at Nuremberg and the UN Charter.
The tribunal laid the foundation for international law and established that war of aggression is its supreme crime. The world benefited from the peace and stability it delivered.
Now all that is in jeopardy.
A war of aggression is defined by its character, gravity, and scale in violation of the UN charter. Russia’s war of aggression is unprecedented since WW2 in its stated aim to eradicate a UN member state. We can never normalise this.
Without justice this time too, these horrors never end - not just for Ukraine. Russia’s war is also an attack on the rules-based order that all countries signed up to. Without international law, aggression becomes normalised as a tool of statecraft again.
Russia has repeatedly made it clear that it commits further aggression and further atrocities in the absence of consequences. Without the reinforcement of international law, Russia would be emboldened. So too would future aggressors around the world.
But there is a path to meaningful justice that would close an absurd loophole that currently enables Russia’s leaders to evade justice. It is achievable, it has precedent, and it is gaining momentum with support from around the world.
Russia launched a brutal war of aggression as a “special military operation”. The world can end it through a Special International Tribunal.
The UN General Assembly has the authority to start this process. It has already repeatedly, overwhelmingly condemned Russia’s aggression.
Estonia and the Baltic countries were among the first to support this. President Zelenskyy is in favour. It’s gaining momentum with the support of elder statespeople, rights activists, and legal experts. Ban Ki-moon recently gave an impassioned plea too.
thejakartapost.com/opinion/2023/0…
Only a UN-backed tribunal can prosecute Russia’s top leaders. They would have immunity if it was just a “hybrid court”. But a war of aggression is a leadership crime. For justice to be meaningful, the top leaders shouldn’t be allowed to escape it.
Some say starting this process could weaken international law if it results in anything less than Putin going to jail in the near future. Yet international law is already severely damaged. Russia's war of aggression is doing that. To not attempt justice would weaken it further.
Every stage towards justice reduces the damage to international law caused by Russia’s war. Just issuing arrest warrants has consequences and sends a clear message about the sanctity of international law. We see that with the ICC warrants for deporting children from Ukraine
Hitler never faced trial, but it was the commitment to prosecute him and his accomplices - even when that outcome was very far from certain - that ultimately delivered the death knell to his legacy of aggression. It exposed and rebuked Nazi crimes to Germany and the world.
We all vowed “never again” after the brutal aggression of the Second World War. Now we must mean it.
The path to justice through the UN General Assembly is clear. It just depends on political will. Show them where you stand #SpecialtribunalNow. .
justice-for-ukraine.com

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More from @edwardlucas

Feb 8, 2023
brilliant by @OliverBullough in his latest newsletter on the new Register of Overseas Entities,

1. For decades, oligarchs and others bought U.K. properties via used anonymous offshore companies to hide their identities.
2. David Cameron, when he was prime minister, promised to do something about this as part of an anti-corruption drive.
3. Cameron lost the Brexit referendum, and no one else in power was interested in driving out oligarchs, so they all accidentally on purpose kind of forgot all about it.

4. Russia attacked Ukraine last February and the British government wanted to do something about oligarchs.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 30, 2022
@ajwsmall @JEyal_RUSI 1/x @owenmatth book chief point is that China doesn't like the war, and isn't helping Russia much. That chimes with what we know . However, as I point out in my article, there are other reasons (chiefly sanctions) for that.
@ajwsmall @JEyal_RUSI @owenmatth 2/x But the US flipflop on MiGs was mystifying. China could well have said that this would mean they supplied more ammo or other things to Russia. So the book's claim is a plausible explanation
.
@ajwsmall @JEyal_RUSI @owenmatth 3/x we know China's nuclear doctrine is narrow and purist. Deterrence only. CCP doesn't want to change that, dislikes Russia nuclear sabre-rattling. Diplomatic pressure on Kremlin regarding that v plausible
Read 6 tweets
Feb 24, 2022
Thread 1/11

Too little, too late

Londongrad just took a direct hit. Or did it?

Look at the measures that the government has announced.

Here’s a quick guide
2/11 One of the most influential Russian banks, VTB, faces a full asset freeze in the UK. Russian banks can no longer use sterling, or the British financial system, to make payments.
Verdict: this will inconvenience Russian bankers. They will find ways round it.
3/11 Russian private companies will be banned from raising funds, taking loans on London financial markets.

Verdict – annoying for them, not so much for the Kremlin. If Putin cared about Russian economy he would not be fighting a war
Read 11 tweets
Feb 24, 2022
thread 1/13 Putin's risk appetite is far greater than we realised. We are deluding ourselves (I was too complacent and thought he wouldn't go this far) So forget the stirring talk about Western unity and a revived spirit of purpose in NATO.
2/13 Warm words and high spirits do not bring the dead back to life. As you read this, Ukrainians are huddling in bomb shelters, dodging bullets, and seeing their dreams of a free, prosperous, law-governed independent country destroyed.
3/13 For the West, this may be (yet another) wake-up call. For Ukraine, it is a death-knell.We will have years (decades, probably) to mull the combination of naivete, complacency, arrogance, ignorance and — most of all — greed that brought us to this catastrophe.
Read 13 tweets
Feb 21, 2022
Thread: 1/5 Putin has done a classic bait and switch: frightened us with one thing so that we accept another. The further dismemberment of Ukraine, and an avowed Russian military presence there: in effect, two more Crimeas.
2/5 We should have started sanctions months ago (years, really). Instead we have waited for a "trigger" event. Putin just has to calibrate his behaviour to be complicated (Donetsk Shmonetsk -- who's heard of these places anyway)? and sub-threshold.
3/5 Putin calculates (probably correctly) that the West will huff and puff but no more. if so, he walks away with a geopolitical trophy at minimal cost. (and don't forget other gains, ie Belarus). He's also exposed weakwilledness and disunity, and Ukraine's loneliness.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 9, 2022
For anyone thinking that Ukraine would benefit from "finlandisation" here are a few quick correctives. 1) Finland did not enjoy or consent to being "finlandized" -- it was the result of Soviet military pressure.
2) Neutrality is no defence -- Russia attacked Ukraine when it was neutral. 3) Russia already promised to respect neutral Ukraine's sovereignty & borders in 1994 Budapest memorandum.
4) there was no footnote saying "unless you have a government we don't like". 5) why would similar promises be worth any more now? 6) Finland has close defence ties with a) Sweden b) NATO c) the United States
Read 4 tweets

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