This a common phrase most have heard but many traders have no idea how to catch a trend consistently.
GammaEdge's Market Trend Model (MTM) makes this easy and is something you can implement tomorrow!
Here's how:
1/ Every transaction in the market produces an uptick (buying) or a downtick (selling).
One way to measure buying and selling is through the Cumulative Tick, the backbone of our MTM.
Before going too far down the rabbit hole, here is a primer on the CT:
2/ Tick is transactional — it triggers with each stock transaction.
An uptick occurs when the stock price increases, no matter if we buy 1 share or 1,000 shares.
It is similar for the downtick scenario too.
We then keep track of these upticks and downticks...
3/ By subtracting total downticks from upticks over a short interval (1-minute maximum duration), we can create a net balance (i.e., net buying activity).
This directly represents the sentiment of market participants over the measurement's time period.
4/ This has advantages because the CT is not delayed like other indicators, which is KEY 🔑
Why?
By focusing on the slope of the CT line, we gain insight into trader sentiment and URGENCY.
5/ This graphic below shows the CT as a bolded white line.
After one glance, it is intuitive that the market is in an uptrend -- the CT is moving from lower-left to upper-right (LLUR).
Said another way, participants are net buying.
6/ A positive slope indicates more buying activity than selling.
A negative slope indicates the opposite.
Your eye is a great filter -- you can see the general uptrend and periods where the CT pulls back.
We exploit this to trade.
Read on (and take notes ✍️ )!
7/ Now that you understand what the CT is, why it's important, and how it moves -- the question becomes "How do I use this to time the market and make money?"
There's no better way to show you than with another visual.
Start on the left side and read to the right:
8/ The previous example shows a bearish to bullish reversal with follow-through.
Catching these trend changes, especially from oversold or overbought conditions, can help align trade entries and exits with market sentiment.
10/ The next chart example shows how a #0DTE trader could follow the intraday trend via CT.
Many of our members report getting out of the trade or reversing their position when the CT intraday trend falters or reverses.
11/ Swing and Positional traders add to winners during short-term pullbacks in the context of a long-term uptrend.
How can these trading styles use the CT?
How do you know if you can add to a position?
As we say in GammaEdge, "Every swing trade begins as an intraday trade."
12/ Like the aforementioned #0DTE traders who follow the intraday trend, swing traders should do the same.
If that signal persists, the position can be held overnight.
Here is another example:
13/ As one final example, the following shows a progression and integration of styles: 0DTE to Swing, Swing to Position.
Start in the lower left and follow the sequencing to the upper right.
The market is all about sequencing.
14/ We have developed short-term, medium-term, and long-term signals through extensive backtesting via tools from our partner @EdgeRater.
The compelling results show a clear edge to using the Cumulative Tick in your trading, whatever your trading style.
15/ If the CT thread has piqued your interest and you want to learn more about how it can improve your trading, consider joining our community (risk-free 14-day trial)!
16/ We have versions of the CT that run in @TradeStation and @TDAmeritrade TOS and are available to all members upon sign-up (including back-testing results using the @EdgeRater tools).
We've taken the role that the dealers play in the market, specific to how they utilize the option Greeks & simplified the concepts into a relatable analogy:
Driving a car. 🚗
If you're easily confused about complex options terms & dealer dynamics, this thread is for you🧵
1/ Like using different inputs to the gas, brakes, and steering wheel based on traffic and road conditions, dealers use 'the Greeks' - delta, gamma, charm, and vanna - to navigate the market and manage risk.
Let's dive deeper into how these play out in real-world trading 👇
2/ As a refresher, dealers are not in the business of making money from predicting price moments.
Their role is to provide liquidity to the markets by facilitating transactions.
Therefore, they are focused on eliminating the directional risk within their portfolio.
🌇Good Afternoon Traders. Time to go around the horn and see what the structure on the #Mag7 stocks looks like for this coming week:
Before we get going on single stock structure, we should review the Market Trend Model, which is our tool to gauge trend/momentum in the market. We can clearly see that all trends are lower, with significant selling seen throughout the week. Caution is certainly warranted here, and we need to see improvement in this structure before any kind of conviction to the upside.
Additionally, let's take a quick look at $SPX. You'll notice the amount of red in the dashboard. This indicates that the bears are out in full force, dominating both above and below spot price. Again, caution is warranted, and we need to see significant improvement in structure before any kind of conviction to the upside.
$AAPL -> What was once living below its transition zone, now is not. Relatively strong end to last week in the face of prevailing general market headwinds (see $SPX and MTM post above). Price is now currently above transition zone and for the next month with call speculators targeting $180 being both +GEX and COI. Additionally, when looking at the GEX ratio, which is a measure of speculation, we can see that this has increased last week.
$TSLA -> Continues to be in a downtrend from the start of the year, which is confirmed via its GEX ratio, meaning we aren't seeing speculation to the upside.
When looking at structure through our dashboard, we can also see the lack of call speculators above spot price for the next month (note the red delta numbers above spot price (first column)). $170 has been -Trans in this name (currently ZeroGex) and key psychological number. Below here, and $160 is being targeted. We need to see structure improve to the upside before being interested in that side of the trade.