Share this page!

Enter Twitter Thread URL to Unroll

Needs to be the full URL like: https://twitter.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on Twitter App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Ethan C7 Profile picture
@ECaliberSeven
May 30 • 3 tweets • 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
First Mace, now Hunt…and rumored to be quite a few more down the line.

Did the libs not act owned enough for the GOP to think they got a win?
Only a handful atm (although the number’s certain to grow) - hopefully there aren’t enough GOP defectors to kill the deal. But these guys aren’t your usual rebels - may be indicative of a lot more discontent.
Mathematically, the deal could survive the floor vote even if like half the House GOP defects, as long as Dems make up the votes.

I’m no expert on House dynamics, but it still seems like to me that the bill should pass, should it come up for a vote. But people might be upset.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Ethan C7

Ethan C7 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ECaliberSeven

Ethan C7 Profile picture
May 27
Looking back over the 2020 Senate elections atm, and I have to say, I don't think incumbency has ever been as lousy an indicator of strength as in these elections.

Dem incumbents went 7/11 for outperforming Biden.
GOP incumbents went 10/17 for outperforming Trump. ImageImage
Even open & appointed incumbent seats split 2-4 between outperforming Biden and outperforming Trump.

Might need to rethink the prior that Senate incumbents outperform the top of the ticket by default. Image
For comparison, in 2016, every Dem senator, and 19/22 GOP senators, outperformed the top of the ticket. And this was more or less the norm for like decades before this.

Remains to be seen if 2020 was an outlier or a paradigm shift, but my gut currently leans toward the latter. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Ethan C7 Profile picture
May 18
Catalist has released their new analysis on the 2022 electorate (HIGHLY recommend reading), and one of the most interesting findings: Dems actually did BETTER w/ Latinos in 2022 than w/ 2020 Prez, but did WAY WORSE with Asians.

catalist.us/whathappened20… Image
Equally as interesting - for white voters, Dems actually held steady w/ non-college whites, and mostly suffered w/ COLLEGE-ED whites (downballot lag?).

M.w. for black voters, we have the opposite.

The Dem gain w/ Latinos & loss w/ Asians were roughly equal, college-ed or not. ImageImage
Catalist tries to frame the youth vote as having “exceptional turnout” - however, it’s clear this is simply a function of Gen Z/Millenials aging into a bigger slice of the electorate.

Among 18-29, turnout fell - big increase was 65+.

However, 18-29 were BLUER than 2020 Prez. ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
Ethan C7 Profile picture
Dec 12, 2022
In a general sense, both Walker and Dr. Oz were bad candidates. However, the swing maps in GA and PA look very different - Walker was garbage in the burbs, but held up in the rurals, while the opposite was true for Dr. Oz.

Feels like diff ways of being bad has diff effects.
I know that it's kinda an obvious statement - of course different ways of being bad will have different effects! - but I wanna drill into that.

What kinds of being "bad" disproportionately turns off rurals? What kinds of being "bad" disproportionately turns of suburbs?
Like, there's the narrative that suburban voters didn't like Walker cuz he was unqualified and not a great guy personally. But why wouldnt that turn off rurals?

It might be a bit obfuscated by turnout and demographic shifts, but it seems clear GA rurals didn't mind as much. Why?
Read 4 tweets
Ethan C7 Profile picture
Dec 11, 2022
As recently as 2018, despite going blue for Prez, the Somerset County Board of Commissioners was still 5-0 GOP. However, by 2020, every seat had flipped to Dems.

Despite GOP efforts to reclaim ground in 2022, commissioner Marano actually IMPROVED upon the Dems' 2020 performance.
Mapping this cuz I'm pretty sure 2022 was the first time I ever received mailers for a countywide race. The Somerset County Dems took these races *very* seriously after nearly losing their commissioner seats in the red wave of 2021.
Wait, I just noticed Marano won a Trump+0.6 town (Millstone Boro) wut
Read 4 tweets
Ethan C7 Profile picture
Nov 26, 2022
Despite being a Democratic midterm, there were quite a few states House Dems actually outperformed their 2020 margins in, while the GOP notably swept through FL and NY.

After accounting for uncontesteds, this is how each state swung from 2020 House -> 2022 House.
Looking at this, some regional patterns clearly emerge, with Dems performing well in the Great Plains and Upper Midwest, while the GOP dominated in the South and (most) of the West coast.

There’s good evidence that persuasion/turnout patterns by race prob caused some of this.
As Max pointed, we’re still counting ballots in a few states that could change the map - specifically MD and CA come to mind.

There’s also two weird cases, ND-AL and MT-02, where the independent was effectively a Dem imo, so I lumped them w/ the Dem vote.
Read 7 tweets
Ethan C7 Profile picture
Nov 22, 2022
Wondering whether Biden should take a trip to Anchorage during the 2024 campaign.

You know, not because he can win it, or that it’d be worth much even if he did (3 electoral votes), but for the sake of the Dems’ longterm prospects, which look surprisingly decent there.
After this midterm, Wisconsin no longer looks like obvious doom for the Dems, so they still retain 25 obvious states to get Senate seats in (the 25 Biden won in 2020). But they don’t have many places to expand the map without some long term investment.
Say hello to 2028 everyone
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Send Email!

:(