(1/4) On 27 May 2023, Russian opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin appeared on Russiaโs NTV channel and called for a new president to be elected in 2024, in order to rebuild normal relations with Europe.
(2/4) Nadezhdin has been a vocal critic of the war since the invasion, but this is highly likely the first call for Putin to be replaced on Russian state-approved TV since it began.
(3/4) In the last 15 months, Russia has introduced limitations on freedom of speech which havenโt been seen since Soviet times.
(4/4) However, there is a realistic possibility that recent vitriolic rhetoric by nationalist figures such as Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin is emboldening opposition figures to challenge taboo topics.
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(1/5) Since the start of May 2023, Russia has increasingly ceded the initiative in the conflict and is reacting to Ukrainian action rather than actively progressing towards its own war aims.
(2/5) During May 2023, Russia has launched 20 nights of one-way-attack uncrewed aerial vehicle and cruise missile attacks deep inside Ukraine.
(1/3) On 25 May 2023, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reported that Russian military spending grew by 9.2 per cent in 2022 to USD $86.4 billion. SIPRI assesses this equates to 4.1 per cent of Russiaโs Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
(2/3) Russiaโs true military spending is highly uncertain due to the increased use of classified budget lines, especially since February 2022, and the lack of transparency.
(1/7) Wagner Group forces have likely started to withdraw from some of their positions around the Donetsk city of Bakhmut.
(2/7) On 25 May 2023, Wagner owner Yevgeny Prigozhin said the withdrawal of his forces from Bakhmut had begun and that transfer of positions to the Russian Ministry of Defence (MOD) would continue to 01 June 2023.
(1/5) Over at least the last 20 years, Russia has experienced a proliferation of paramilitary groups out of its regular armed forces.
(2/5) However, this โparamilitarisationโ has dramatically accelerated since Russiaโs invasion of Ukraine and is particularly important in the Crimean Peninsula.
[1/4] Analysis by Geollect indicates that since 14 May 2023, commercial vesselsโ Automatic Identification System (AIS) data has been remotely spoofed to create the impression of a 65km long Russian pro-war Z symbol on the Black Sea, visible on open source tracking software.
[2/4] AIS is used to track vessels, including to ensure their safety. Tracks making up the image suggested vessel speeds of up to 102 knots (188 km/h), further suggesting they were fake.
(1/4) Credible research by independent Russian journalists suggests that between January and May 2023, Russian military courts dealt with 1,053 cases of personnel going absent without leave (AWOL) โ more than during the whole of 2022.
(2/4) Russiaโs military has struggled to enforce discipline in its ranks throughout its operations in Ukraine, but its issues have highly likely worsened following the forced mobilisation of reservists since October 2022.