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Jean Fisch Profile picture
@Jean__Fisch
Jun 1 • 7 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
This paper making the rounds at the moment claims that "excess deaths started in Mar 2021 in GER and is unlikely to come from covid but matches vaccines"

It is rigged with issues which basically invalidate its claim

Let me go through the major ones⤵️

cureus.com/articles/14941…
The key issue is that the authors did not take info account that in the absence of flu the winter peak will be displaced

Once you correct for this, excess deaths match covid deaths in 2021

1/
Also the study relies for covid deaths on RKI

As elsewhere, RKI does not cover all deaths involving covid in 2022 (it underestimates them by 30% based on data up to 4/22)

Once corrected,there is no significant excess beyond covid and flu in 2022

2/
That covid is the by far main driver is also amply supported by the death data by cause of death which shows clearly that the spikes in deaths correspond to covid and are most likely to be underreported covid deaths

3/
A further issue is that, as I showed for instance here last year, there is no visible pattern of excess deaths by age bracket which matches that of the vaccination campaigns

4/
So, essentially, this study is based on erroneous assumptions on
- the temporal pattern of expected deaths
- the size of covid deaths in Germany

Once corrected for this, its conclusion on temporal association with vaccines AND lack of association with covid both fall apart

5/
This does not mean there are no vax deaths: There are, Destatis reports 243 so far. This could well be an undercounting (just as with covid because novel)

But there is no evidence, on the contrary, that the figure is massive as implied by the paper

END

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More from @Jean__Fisch

Jean Fisch Profile picture
Jun 1
Scotland has been reporting continues excess deaths (and this beyond covid) since November, even after corrections for mortality and population trend

However, the data by registration date is a bit misleading and a look at data by occurrence provides better insights ⤵️ Image
Scotland provides data by occurrence by age on a monthly basis which allows one to make a proper assessement against expected deaths from population and mortality trends

And what comes through is that there are TWO periods of excess: "Xmas 22" and "Mar-Apr 23"

1/ Image
Not only does Scotland provide monthly data by occurrence, it also provides it by leading cause

And it is pretty clear to see that there was a spike of respiratory and covid in Mar-Apr 2023 (which, as so often, also pushes up other death categories: heart, Alzheimer, etc.)

2/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Jean Fisch Profile picture
May 12
This is actually quite insightful and shows how prior beliefs blurs and distorts the situation

Natural immunity was absolutely not divisive: It's value was clear but no gov was prepared to accept the costs associated with it until vaccines came

1/5
In particular, the impact of an "R0=2.5 / IFR >>0.5%" virus is such that no shielding mecanisms was deemed sufficiently secure to let circulation run high without taking uncalculated risks on the death toll

(here a little check I did a while back)

2/5
Also Sweden started to look at much firmer circulation reduction in Nov 2020, when the second wave hit and it was clear to its governments that IFR was around 0.6% and not 0.1% when defining its approach during the Spring 2020 wave

3/5
Read 6 tweets
Jean Fisch Profile picture
May 9
Vaccine harm deserves better than the deplorable show that vaccine sceptics are offering so here an update of fatality from Germany (up to April 2022):

The death rate due to covid vaccination was at roughly 1.8 deaths per million doses administrated in early 2022 Image
Quick add ons to forecome obvious questions

/ No need to remind me that, just as with long covid, fatality is not everything (I know): I could not find hospitalizations or sequels data

/ Unfortunately, the German monthly death data by cause is not split by age
I just realize that in fact, Germany seems to have experienced a 4x higher death rate due to covid 19 vaccine than England up to April 2022

Read 4 tweets
Jean Fisch Profile picture
Apr 8
While Dr. Gupta's claim that new Danish data vindicated her low estimation of IFR in Mar '20 is incorrect, I still wondered how this estimate came about

This interview provides answers and highlights once more IFR's key role in a pandemic response ⤵️

From the interview, it is clear that Dr. Gupta’s low IFR estimate back in 2020 came from a set of considerations which reinforced each other

1) Covid-19 is a SARS virus and the world had been exposed to SARS before
-> Some immunity was there possible / likely

1/N
2) Covid showed the classic bell-shaped curve in China and in Italy which one expects from models when a virus comes and goes away
-> It is therefore possible that the going away was the result of reaching high levels of infections (60%? 70%?)

2/N
Read 18 tweets
Jean Fisch Profile picture
Apr 5
In this @unherd column, @SunetraGupta asks the Q: "how wrong was I to suggest that average IFR was 0.05-0.10% back in 2020?"

The answer is
- "By a factor of 5-10 for DNK" (per official data)
- "By a factor 5-25 overall" if UK is anything to go by

It's quite simple really ⤵️
@unherd @SunetraGupta @DSTdk official 2020 death toll "FOR COVID" is 1,078

Source: dst.dk/en/Statistik/e…

@SSI_dk studies put covid prevalenced at 4.1% in Dec 2020

Source: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34420152/

So the IFR in DNK in 2020 was 1,078/5,8m/0.04% = ~0,45%

ie "5-10x higher than 0.05-0.1%"

1/3 Image
So what happened? This person used an average over the pandemic for DNK

The thing is that 80-90% of the infections happened in 2022 in DNK: So average IFR actually means 2022 IFR

As the UK data shows, IFR dropped by almost an order of magnitude in 2022 (with Omicron + vax)

2/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Jean Fisch Profile picture
Apr 3
Interesting data came out today from Denmark, where @SSI_dk released cumulative covid deaths "for covid" (according to death register) by age bracket under a FOIR

How does this compare with Sweden? Well it is 3 times lower ... almost across the age board

A QUICK WALK THROUGH
@SSI_dk Sweden provides its deaths "due to covid" on a weekly basis as well as cumulative covid deaths due to covid by age band

Denmark does only provide weekly deaths "with covid" as well as a chart (no data) with death "for covid" but no data by age band for covid

1/7
With the release today, one can now compare its deaths with those of Sweden. What is interesting is that

a) the death ratio is 1 to 3: There were 3 times more deaths due to covid in SWE than DNK
b) this ratio holds true across the board

2/7
Read 10 tweets

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