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The Swedish Rumble 🔰 Profile picture
@SwedishRumble
Jun 1, 2023 • 25 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
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🚨💣Chelsea FC is reportedly forced to sell players, not only because their squad is too big, but to comply with the FFP rules of the PL and UEFA. Can we verify if this is the case? And if so, how much must they sell for? And by when? A 🧵. 👇 Image
Long technical 🧵, so a "Summary":
(a) Best guess is that CFC must sell players for app. 30-60m before 30 June under PL rules, but it is very hard to say with any certainty.
(b) It seems to be almost a certainty that CFC will breach UEFA rules in 24'.
(Contin.) Summary:
(c) Instead of no player signings this summer (alongside the massive sales), they might opt to make that breach in 2024 fully aware that they then must get their finance in order with no leeway under UEFA orders during the period between 2025-2028.
(2/22) Due to missing all of the CL, the EL and the ECL, #CFC must not seek to be licensed by UEFA for 23/24. This does not have a big impact, since the summer of 2023 is a transitional year for the UEFA’s new FSR (replacing FFP). Image
(3/22) This summer, CFC must still comply with the PL Profitability and Sustainability rules. Image
(4/22) Under the PL FFP rule, CFC can have 105m in losses over three years and deduct costs of est. 35m (Covid) and est. 20m (the sanctions/sale). Hence with my forecast for 22/23, I conclude that they must sell players with a 66.6m profit before 30 Jun. Image
(5/22) What is the margin of error? First, when things go bad, it usually results in income being a bit worse than what can be expected, second, due to the sale and sanction of Abramovhich, which is an unprecedent event, CFC can argue that costs are bigger than 20m. Image
(6/22) It could for example be argued that the club lost Christensen to Barca since they couldn’t resign him. In addition, many claims by Everton in its ongoing FFP case can be made by CFC – if Everyone is successful. Everton is requesting to deduct costs relating to… Image
(7/22)…exceptional player impairments and the transfer market being depleted due to Covid 19. But how cocky can CFC be in this regard? The argument that the club only lost money due to Lukaku’s demise (70m impairment loss), can be questioned in light of the subseq. 500m spend. Image
(8/22)In summary, can we verify that CFC “must” sell players before 30 June 2023? No. I would characterize it as there being a ‘reason to believe’ that sales must be made, but I can’t see that it is a certainty. If so, how much must they sell players for? The 66.6m in... Image
(9/22)sales profit is my estimate, but it is rough. Perhaps very rough, given all the uncertainty and special circumstances. Image
(10/22) So how much can CFC make from player sales? A lot. The below is a table with players that might be considered for a sale. The est. fee is of course super subjective, but even if being moderate – this amounts to app. 200m in profits from player sales. Image
(11/22) So if the forecast that CFC must sell players for 60m is correct, selling Mason Mount before 30 Jun gets them a long way towards that. But so does a combo of Kovacic and RLC. There are many alternatives. Over to the long term implications that also must be considered. Image
(12/22) If CFC qualify for Europe in 24/25, UEFA will in the summer of 24’ ask CFC to apply for a license, and in connection herewith review if CFC comply with the new Football Earnings Rule, under which CFC’s agg. loss only can be 60m. With no sales, this is how they perform. Image
(13/22) I.e., bloody ugly to be frank. Without any signings this season, they must improve their forecasted earnings with £351m. This forecast is of course not 100%, but it doesn’t include many of the sources of uncertainty in the previous forecast (Covid and sales costs). Image
(14/22) Remember, that unlike in relation to the PL rule applied this summer, saved wages and reduced amortization of course improves CFC’s earnings for 23/24. So it is highly relevant to look at review in 24', when analyzing CFC's potential summer plans.
(15/22) So how would player sales impact CFC’s ability to comply with this rule? If – all – the bolded players are sold for the est. fee – it improves CFC’s earnings with 276.8m for the period, which still is 75m short. All est. fees are very moderate, they could still cover... Image
(16/22)…the entire balance if they get more paid for a bunch of players, than est. A few months ago, I said that CFC surely was going to breach the UEFA Football Earnings Rule in 24’ (unless they sold like Reece James), but that it probably was in the club’s plan. Without...
(17/22)..Europa League games every Thursday – the squad can be slimmer, and perhaps its doable. But as we can see – a lot of players must be sold, i.e. 10 players above including Mount, just to get close. Next, lets look at what alternative CFC have to comply with the rules. Image
(18/22) Why? In the previous segment, we have not accounted for CFC buying a single player. CFC is linked to Osimehn, Gvardiol, Lavia, several GKs and so forth. That is another 300m in fees or 90m in yearly costs (after 30 June).
(19/22) There are rumors of teams suing Everton if they are found to have breached the PL rule. Many will surely remember Sheffield United receiving damages of like 25m from West Ham back in the day…
(20/22)…due to the Tevez debacle. Hence, I think teams are vary to breach the PL rules right now. But what about the UEFA rule? In general – it is important to point out that PSG, Roma, Inter, Juventus and Milan currently are deemed to breach UEFA’s FFP regulation.
(21/22) What would happen if CFC breach UEFA’s new FSR? They would get a modest fine, 10m, and then they would be forced to enter into a settlement agreement. If CFC’s losses exceeds the limit with say 300m, the settlement agreement will state that CFC over a period of 3 years…
(21/22)… must improve its earnings so that it in the 3rd year complies with the rules, or in 2028 in CFC’s case. I.e. if you are minus 300m Settlement Agreement (“SA”) -1, the year of the breach, and minus 150m SA+1, you must break even SA+2 and record a profit of 90m SA+3.
(22/22) In CFC’s case, this is easily attainable, since the already made sales put them in the right direction. They might even make a profit in SA+1. So I am not sure if CFC really will scramble to get there and not make any signings.

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More from @SwedishRumble

The Swedish Rumble 🔰 Profile picture
May 14
There is one reason and one reason only why this case is not settled yet. When the PL launched the procedure for the 115 charges, City made sure that it got stuck in the courts for almost 3 years challenging every technical aspect it could to delay it.

A summary:
November-December 2018: The Premier League write to City requesting certain information and documents in relation to potential breaches of their rules — known as the information claim. City object to the request — after what has been published by Der Spiegel/the Football Leaks.
21 August 2019: The PL issue a complaint against City, since it has still not received the documents and information it has the right to receive under the Premier League Rules and which City refuse to give the PL access to. City responds by challenging the PL's disciplinary system, challenging a technicality (only highly regarded barristers could be elected for the commission).
22 October 2019: With the documents and information not forthcoming, the PL begin arbitration against the club seeking a declaration that they are contractually obliged to provide them. The club try to stop the arbitration by arguing to the tribunal involved that the PL had no power to start it. They also claim that the tribunal does not appear impartial.
26 June 2020: City issue an application in the Commercial Court repeating their argument that the tribunal lacks jurisdiction on the information claim and is tainted with “bias”.
2 November 2020: City’s claim that it has no obligation to to pass on the requested information and documents to the PL — is rejected. It’s clearly stated in the rules that they must do so. The order to provide them is however postponed pending the outcome of the Commercial Court case.
17 March 2021: In the Commercial Court, Mrs Justice Moulder more or less summarily dismisses the club's challenge to the jurisdiction and impartiality of the tribunal, dismantling the City’s lawyers arguments clearly hinting that it was felt that it had abused the public court system. She refuses permission to appeal her judgment.
24 March 2021: Mrs Justice Moulder said her judgment should be published, in order to reveal the lengths to which City had attempted to resist passing on information to the PL. City successfully seeked permission to appeal the decision to make the information public in the Court of Appeal. So we get another delay (I think you are starting to get the drift by now, it’s an appeal of an appeal of an appeal about a pure nonsense technicality. On a side
30 June 2021: The Court of Appeal opens its hearing into the club's appeal against publication. The Court of Appeal handed down its decision dismissing the appeal.

So it took the PL almost three years to just have it sorted out that it has the right to receive the information the Premier League Rules clearly states that City must submit to the PL. After this, we know that City made another challenge of the impartiality of an experienced barrister in no way connected to the Premier League, in KC Murray Rosen. How much delay this caused is unknown.

During this time, City was also sentenced by UEFA for failing to produce requested information and delaying procedures.

I am sure we all come across City PR people, at twitter, during City’s PCs, and so forth, telling us that the reason no decision have been made against City is because it is quote “complicated“. Decide for yourself!
Lastly, in this entire shambolic procedure and abuse of the game of football, one person have done more than all fancy pundits, journalists and experts combined — to protect the integrity of the game — and should be singled out and that is Justice Dame Clare Moulder. Without her…

Despite what seems to be attempts for interference on the governmental level, she took the bold decisions set out above without which it’s perfectly possible that we still wouldn’t be aware of the charges and that still would have been caught in some court somewhere.Image
Someone cynical might speculate on that it was a blessing that she ended up drawing this case just before her retirement in 2022, when she had nothing to lose, but since I am not cynical/conspiratorial — I wouldn’t believe that. But it’s the one big loss City have had in the judicial system up until now despite some pretty horrible looking circumstances speaking against the club… 😅
Read 4 tweets
The Swedish Rumble 🔰 Profile picture
May 8
🚨🚨🚨Very remarkable that the @FA_PGMOL selects Michael Oliver for the FA Cup Final -- despite it appearing to be a possible breach of the FA's "Regulations for the Registration and Control of Referees".

🔺A referee has an obligation to decline an appointment if he has a "material interest" conflicting with his duties.

🔺Does Michael Oliver have a material conflict of interest? Oliver has -- this season -- accepted what reportedly was a well paid assignment from Manchester City's owner.

Is this material? A Premier League referee can of course not be on the payroll of an owner of a PL club playing in one of the game he is reffing. An auditor who works as a referee on the side and has a client that is a football club, cannot ref a game involving that team. It is different if your cousin's son play for a team or something like that, in which case it could be argued that it is not material. But it speaks for itself in relation to the Premier League, that a ref can't work for one of the owner of a PL club.

What was Oliver paid for his work in the UAE? Say that it was first class tickets to Abu Dahbi, three nights in a five star hotel, and £5,000 for "90 minutes of work" -- I cannot see how anyone could find that it is not 'material'. What would the threshold be, "you can accept payments from an owner of a PL club as long as it is under £50k?"

If Michael Oliver becomes the public enemy No 1 of City after awarding three incorrect penalties to MUFC -- does he get another offer to call games for the UAE Pro League next season?

So what is the problem? Is there any question-marks if the UAE Pro League is controlled by City's owner, Sheikh Mansour, who is the deputy prime minister of the UAE and a core member of the ruling royal family?

It is generally stated that it is not possible in the UAE to separate different parts of government even from the private business sector. KC Murray Rosen -- who is the chair of the PL's Independent Disciplinary Commission handling the City Case -- could for this reason never accept an assignment from the UAE to say prepare a draft for a new constitution or whatever, while being in charge of the City case. It wouldn't even be considered for three seconds. A government official in charge of a large multi billion public procurement for which Sheik Mansour have made a bid, could never accept well paid side job from the UAE while considering Mansour's bid, without facing grave risk of breaking the law. It is unthinkable that this would be accepted. I am not an expert on English law, if anyone familiar with these issues in the UK think I am on thin ice here, let me know.

🔺So why did Howard Webb tell Michael Oliver that he could take the job? And does it matter? First of all, I think Howard Webb should answer this question. Maybe he didn't know that City was owned by the deputy prime minister of the UAE? He was a good ref, maybe geography, politics or whatever isn't one of his strengths... I just cannot imagine that Webb even would consider telling a Michael Oliver that it was OK for him to say accept an offer of 20k from the Glazers to fly to Florida and call a charity game arranged by the Glazers.

But I don't know know the reasons for why he accepted it, I am just speculating.

But does it matter if Webb gave a green light? Of course not, it is completely irrelevant, at least as far as I can tell. Michael Oliver must comply with the FA's fundamental rules for referees. Howard Webb appears to have zero authority to set aside these rules.

And I have said it before, I am very surprised that a PL ref even would consider accepting an assignment from the owner of a PL club. How can they not realize how problematic that is?

🔺But surely, Michael Oliver -- will -- be impartial? But it is completely irrelevant. This is because the Conflict of Interest rules does not exist exclusively to ensure impartiality, it is deemed to be just as important to safe guard the integrity of the game. Let say that it came out that Howard Webb while being a PL ref had been paid 5m by J.P. McManus for a side gig while McManus was the majority owner of Manchester United -- it would significantly damage the integrity of the game, regardless if Webb called every game in an impartial way and never felt any obligation towards Mr. McManus.

🔺From my viewpoint, this is clearly a very problematic issue and I have to say that I think that it is remarkable that the the PGMOL -- in light of the above -- still appoints Michael Oliver to referee the FA Cup Final when Manchester City is playing in it.Image
Image
Anyone savvy should set up an online petition to get Oliver removed, PGMOL doesn’t have to pick the one referee who appears to quite possibly have a conflict of interest to be VAR for the FA Cup Final.
The PL have enough issues with “asterisks” as it is…
Read 4 tweets
The Swedish Rumble 🔰 Profile picture
Nov 19, 2023
💣💣🚨🚨With the Everton decision at hand, it is now possible to -- with far greater certainty than before -- predict the outcome of the Manchester City case.

In my view, it must now be expected that MCFC will get EXPELLED from the PL!! ⚠️

A 🧵. Image
What is MCFC charged for? The below table summarize the charges, they can be sorted under 5-6 categories, I would say that it is 32 charges, some will say 115 since each "X" regards several provisions in the PL Rule Book.

Some of these charges are really complex -- but not all! Image
MCFC for example admitted a breach to, and was sanctioned by, UEFA in 14' -- which is a breach of the PL rules.

The PL also claims that agreements have been made to pay wages and transfer fees under the table in 2010 and 2011, which seems to be supported by strong evidence. Image
Read 21 tweets
The Swedish Rumble 🔰 Profile picture
Oct 30, 2023
🤔I see so many comments questioning ETH’s XI.

A 🧵on why those decisions were — completely irrelevant — and what indisputably cost us the game.

Can anyone disagree with the below?? And can anyone give even a suggestion of what ETH could have done different??? Comment 👇. Image
At the 16:15 mark, MUFC were in the games. It then changed completely. Why? After failing to play up from the back ONCE — MCFC controls the play for 4:07. At the 20:22 mark, when the ball goes out of play 👇, nobody would say that the game is even.
So what happens next? The exact same thing over again, we fail to play up from the back, MCFC gains control, and draws the FK — resulting in MCFC’s penalty at 22:45.
Read 10 tweets
The Swedish Rumble 🔰 Profile picture
Oct 26, 2023
🚨🚨💣💣 #MUFC's Q4 report is out, part II. What is our FFP status? A 🧵 looking at (a) how much we can spend in January and (b) how much we can spend during the summer of 2024. Lets dive into it! 🔰
🔺First of all, what we spend in January, will impact our profit from the 23/24 season. In the summer of 2024, PL and UEFA will determine if we are compliant with their FFP provisions against this and other seasons. Image
Under the UEFA provisions and namely the Football Earnings Rule (#FER), during the summer of 2024, our aggregate earnings from 22/23 + 23/24 cannot be lower than -60 MEUR. Image
Read 12 tweets
The Swedish Rumble 🔰 Profile picture
Oct 21, 2023
🚨💣A 🧵 covering all relevant questions on the takeover of #MUFC! I think it is safe to say that we now can answer what will happen to:
🔺 the Management Personnel;
🔺the Transfer Budget;
🔺 Old Trafford and Carrington; and
🔺 MUFC's position in a MCO.

Lets dive into it!💪 Image
🔺IS IT DONE?
No. The proposed structure is complex and 'custom made' for this deal. A lot of details must be agreed on between Ineos and the Glazers. Before an agreement is in place, I would not trust the Glazers.⚠️
🔺HOW DOES INEOS OFFER WORK? (1/5)
It will have three components: (1) one share purchase, (2) one agreement between the Glazers & Ineos on management of the club, and (3) an investment injecting funds into MUFC.

The result of the purchase of shares an be assumed to be: Image
Read 30 tweets

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