Paul T. Haenle Profile picture
Jun 3 27 tweets 10 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/ U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin kicks off Saturday morning at the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore #SLD with a speech entitled "A Shared Vision for the Indo-Pacific." Image
2/ Countries of Indo-Pacific have come together around a compelling vision of the future. And they’re advancing it in unprecedented ways. It’s a vision of a region in which all countries are free to thrive on their own terms—without coercion, intimidation, or bullying. It’s a… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
3/ That vision is anchored in some key principles.
- Respect for sovereignty.
- Adherence to international law.
- Transparency and openness.
- The free flow of commerce and ideas.
- Human rights and human dignity.
- Equal rights for all states, large and small.
- And resolving… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
4/ The Kremlin’s indefensible war of choice stands as the bloodiest conflict in Europe since the end of World War II. And Russia’s shocking aggression has brought home to people everywhere how dangerous our world would become if big countries could just invade their peaceful… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
5/ Our shared goals (in the Indo-Pacific) are clear: to deter aggression and to deepen the rules and norms that promote prosperity and prevent conflict. We’re stepping up planning, coordination, and training with our friends from ECS to SCS to Indian Ocean. That includes… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
6/ US & PI recently designated four new locations under our EDCA...standing with Japanese allies as they make historic changes to their National Security Strategy...salute the bold steps by Japan & ROK to work more closely together....As NK continues threats, we’re deepening our… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
7/ We’re working closely with allies to upgrade our force posture in the region...committed to ensuring that every country can fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows...committed to increase the rotational presence of U.S. forces in Australia...President Biden’s… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
8/ Our Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology with India lets us explore new ways to co-develop key defense platforms....with Japan, we’re working closely together on uncrewed combat air systems, counter-hypersonics, and air-defense and missile-defense technologies...w/… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
9/ Through the historic AUKUS partnership, we’re cooperating with Aus/UK on a range of path-breaking capabilities...we’ve invested nearly $1.2 billion in security cooperation funding to ensure that Indo-Pacific countries can detect malign actions and deter coercion...US, Aus,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
10/ We’ve also made important strides forward with Aus, India, & Japan through the Quad...US is proud to expand our cooperation with ASEAN..we are building important new ties in the Pacific Islands.
11/ We won’t be deterred by dangerous operational behavior at sea or in international airspace. PRC continues to conduct an alarming number of risky intercepts of U.S. and allied aircraft flying lawfully in international airspace. And we’ve all just clearly seen another… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
12/ So we will support our allies and partners as they defend themselves against coercion and bullying. We do not seek conflict or confrontation. But we will not flinch in the face of bullying or coercion.
13/ On Taiwan, US remains deeply committed to preserving the status quo, consistent w/ one-China policy, and TRA...conflict is neither imminent nor inevitable. Deterrence is strong today—and it’s our job to keep it that way....conflict in the Taiwan Strait would be… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
13/ President Biden has been clear. The US does not seek a new Cold War. Competition must never spill over into conflict. The region should never be split into hostile blocs. Instead, we’re working to strengthen the guardrails against conflict, to redouble our diplomacy, and to… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
14/ US believes open lines of communication w/ PRC are essential—especially between our defense and military leaders. For responsible defense leaders, the right time to talk is anytime. The right time to talk is everytime. And the right time to talk is now. Dialogue is not a… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
15/ I am deeply concerned PRC has been unwilling to engage more seriously on better mechanisms for crisis management between our two militaries. But I hope that will change, and soon. I’ve said it before: Great powers must be beacons of transparency and responsibility. And the US… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
16/ PLA officer asks SecDef Austin: You say you support ASEAN centrality but the US is also leading efforts on US-led institutions AUKUS and the Quad. Is there a contradiction here? Answer: AUKUS/Quad help contribute to stability/security, we are supporting Aus with… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
17/ @BichTTran1 question to SecDef Austin: you mentioned Vietnam is an important partner to the US, that seems to indicate US respects the different political system of Vietnam. Does that mean being a communist is not a problem but being a revolutionist may be another issue.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
18/ Austin continues answer to @BichTTran1: US is focused on maintaining peace, security and stability in this region and to maintain access to international airways and waterways. In our partnerships/alliances, we do not ask countries to choose between us and another country.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
19/ French participant asks SecDef Austin: given your claim you do not believe a PRC invasion of TW is imminent/inevitable, should we expect high-ranking active duty US military officers continue to state their own views on potential PRC timelines or should we expect them to… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
20/ SecDef Austin: what they are pointing to in some cases is the fact that Xi has challenged the PLA to develop the capabilities to conduct military operations by 2027. That does not mean Xi has made a decision to do that. In terms of what US military officers will say in the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
21/ SecDef Austin continues: the way to deter any misguided decision is by having a combat credible military, we have one, will continue to have one.
22/ @VeerleNouwens asks Austin how important is it for the US that European countries to be engaged militarily in the Indo-Pacific. Answer: "The first thing I will tell you is we are not trying to create a NATO in the Indo-Pacific."
23/ Austin continues: Glad to see my counterparts from Europe here at the forum. They all have interests in this region, not just military, but whole of government interests in this region. It is rightful that European countries remain interested in the region.
24/ @dewianwar asks SecDef Austin: do you envision Quad-ASEAN institutional cooperation or will it be more about Quad cooperation with individual countries of ASEAN? Austin: Take what we have in terms of bilateral, trilateral and multilateral partnerships and build on those… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
25/ @Dimi asks Austin how urgent the need is to develop joint operational war plans with allies, particularly Japan and Australia, for Taiwan contingencies, and how hard is it proving to be to develop them. Answer: Won't surprise you I won't discuss any war plans in a forum like… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
26/ Austin continues: what I will tell you is that it is important to work hard to increase our interoperability. It's important to have where possible compatible platforms. Really important to have policies and procedures that serve you well and that allies and partners… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

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More from @paulhaenle

Jun 4
1/ Chinese Minister of National Defense General Li Shangfu addresses the Shangrila Dialogue on day 2. He mentions China’s Global Security Initiative right off the bat. Image
2/ Li says we need to ask who is disrupting peace and stability? <utual respect should prevail over bullying. Where hegemonism and power politics exist, there will be instability.
3/ Second, fairness and justice should transcend the law of the jungle. internal affairs should not be dictated by one or a few countries. China practices multilateralism and win win solutions, some countries force own rules on others, attempt to constrain other to conventions… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 14 tweets
Nov 28, 2022
1/ No doubt Xi's challenges w/ Covid are daunting. But to me his problem starts with where he wants this to end. At the end of the day, when covid is behind us, Xi wants to say the CCP handled it better than any political system in the world (esp US/Western-led democracies).
2/ The narrative goes: “Sure, China had to sacrifice, but Chinese people are resilient/strong - 中国人能吃苦 (Chinese people can eat bitter!). US/broader West may have returned to normal daily life quicker but they did so at great expense of their citizens safety/public health.
3/ The narrative continues: US/West sacrificed millions of its citizens - grandmas & grandpas, brothers & sisters, aunts and uncles - while the CCP protected its people, took care of their safety, and ensured China got through covid without the high death rates seen in the West.
Read 17 tweets
Oct 23, 2022
1/ A key question going into 20th Party Congress was would personnel selections reflect an attempt to balance Xi Jinping’s power or was Xi going to run the table. It’s pretty clear, he completely ran the table – this was a clean sweep for him.
2/ We have known that the influence of the China Youth League (CYL) has been severely diminished through a decade of anti-corruption purges under Xi, nevertheless it was one of the only barometers left to gauge whether there would be any checks on Xi's authority/decision making.
3/ In this regard, it was important to see whether Wang Yang and Li Keqiang, both affiliated with CYL, would remain in the Standing Committee. Both 67 years old, so according to the previous norms around retirement age, they could both have remained in the PSC. Xi removed both.
Read 21 tweets
Jul 9, 2022
1/ Secretary Antony J. Blinken And Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi Before Their Meeting - United States Department of State state.gov/secretary-anto…
2/ Chinese Foreign Ministry readout. fmprc.gov.cn/wjbzhd/202207/…
3/ Wang Yi stressed that the US side has expressed its desire to add a "guardrail" to China-US relations. Chinese readout notes that the three Sino-US joint communiques are the most reliable "protection" for the two countries.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 5, 2022
1/ Int’l news covers horrific atrocities carried out by Russia’s military in Bucha, Ukraine; China’s state media, on the other hand, barely mentions it (if at all) or parrots Russian denials/says Ukraine is lying. @SamBresnick & I explore why this is. carnegieendowment.org/2022/04/04/chi…
2/ China’s diplomatic messaging abroad is robust: paying close attention to situation; calling for calm, restraint, avoiding action that fuel tensions; China welcomes efforts to find diplomatic solution on basis of equality/mutual respect. Strong int'l diplomatic rhetoric.
3/ However, China’s propaganda/state media tell a different story at home, one that places blame for the war squarely on U.S./NATO, exculpates Russia in the process. This kind of domestic messaging has intensified as of late, increasingly more strident in its support of Russia.
Read 17 tweets
Nov 9, 2019
1.) China's former trade negotiator says China wants to see Trump reelected in 2020 because he is easy to negotiate with and only cares about China purchasing more American products (not pressing China to make important structural changes to its economy).

scmp.com/business/china…
2.) @SamBresnick and I made this point in a recent article where we said China "will see Trump’s acceptance of the watered-down deal, made up mostly of Chinese purchases that have been on the table for more than a year, as a sign of weakness..." carnegieendowment.org/2019/10/15/tru…
3.) China signaled early in 2017 it could purchase alot more American products. What is more difficult is making structural changes to its economy - greater market access for US firms, better protection of US intellectual property, standing down on unfair Chinese subsidies, etc.
Read 5 tweets

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