Thread by @AricToler

The tweets are pretty specific, saying that the explosion happened at 2:35am. However, nothing from local channels yet.
t.me/romanov_92/388…

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1665896783007055872

This was two hours ago, so the fact that it's news isolated to just some RU milbloggers makes it a bit tough to believe

Or maybe not
t.me/milinfolive/10…

Nova Kakhovka dam before and after

t.me/milinfolive/10…

Ukrainian command is blaming Russians for the dam's destruction (Російськими окупаційними військами здійснено підрив Каховської ГЕС.)
facebook.com/OperationalCom…

Nothing from the Russian government or state media yet (except a quote in RIA that everything is normal and nothing happened)

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1665919224601083910

ria.ru/20230606/ges-1…

Response on a pro-Russian milblogger channel to the mayor saying everything is normal and the dam is fine (don't have to read Russian to figure out the general mood)

Trukha is sharing some content showing islands downstream of the dam flooding
t.me/truexanewsua/7…

Another video of the aftermath of the dam
t.me/yurasumy/9034

Old boom moment, didn't recognize the footage. Being shared around.

theguardian.com/world/video/20…

t.me/opersvodki/151…

1 hour ago: Mayor of occupied Nova Kakhovka tells RIA Novosti that the dam is fine, everything is "quiet", and "normal everywhere".
10 minutes ago: Mayor "corrects" his story to say that, actually, Ukrainians shelled the hydroelectric station overnight

t.me/rian_ru/204793

Very clear, high-res video of the dam right now
t.me/vosmerkaZ/43

Ruslan's thread where he points to Russian neglect/stupidity (not a deliberate explosion) for the reason of the dam's collapse:

https://twitter.com/RuslanLeviev/status/1666045283120054272?t=suA8fSyGVGdOlJILCf84FQ&s=19

Messages from locals in the middle of the night that may point to an external cause/detonation, but could be mines around the water (sorry for the autogenerated text, can't tell what they're really saying with it)

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1666031403471982592?t=suA8fSyGVGdOlJILCf84FQ&s=19

Ukraine with a very specific accusation, following up from the Southern Command's very general statement early this morning assigning responsibility

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1666053750597857282?t=-5-mXNgCgaj3YSmp3k4Adw&s=19

The specific unit was an easy one to name for this:

https://twitter.com/y_nechepurenko/status/1666036589544210432?t=iN2V3lbt5-OWM60-_U63KA&s=19

Russians very well may have deliberately blown up the dam, but I'm not sure this is the clear evidence for it, as all previous reports have the dam breaking 20-30min prior.

https://twitter.com/rrichcord/status/1666064823405146112?t=fB6MaEm34uANrjwtUm5-cQ&s=19

Geoff with the most detailed thread I've seen so far on the dam:

https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1665959437981429762

Interested to see if any information is released on the explosive device used here (assuming one was used, which is looking more likely)

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1666130934373003279

Or maybe not

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1666157485982351367

Illia suggests the Russian (malicious?) negligence option as a possibility for the initial cause of the dam breakage, rather than explosives

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1666199260956614659?t=UsHtuDi8-xEdQd0y_FHPSw&s=19

A Ukrainian engineer with Ukrhydroproject suggests that it could have only been an explosion that led to the dam collapse: texty.org.ua/fragments/1098…

Independent Russian outlet Volya Media with an anonymously-sourced account: Russia's 31st Engineer Regiment meant to blow up the dam at the end of the week, but screwed up, hence Russia (and its troops) not being prepared for the fallout. (via @kromark) t.me/volyamedia/681

It's just one anonymously-sourced account, so don't put too much stock into it, but they do name specific names in there -- worth following up on any secondary reporting around this regiment and the specific people named from it.

Opposite of Volya's account, @CITeam_en analyzed videos of the destroyed dam and satellite imagery, concluding that it was a structural collapse due to Russian "criminal negligence" rather than intentional explosions.
notes.citeam.org/ru-dispatch-ju…

(Meta discussion: This thread is aggregating sources speaking to the origin of the dam breakage -- likely either Russian criminal negligence or an intentional Russian explosion. I have no strong opinion or expertise either way, just putting these various accounts into one place)