Max Montero Profile picture
Jun 7, 2023 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
With the current developments especially the improved defense & economic relations between the Philippines & Sweden, it is becoming apparent that the DND still aims to go with the Saab JAS-39C/D Gripen for the Philippine Air Force's MRF Acquisition Project. Here's why:
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1. Price - the PAF's budget for MRF has practically unchanged, which means only Saab can meet the budget vs quantity needed. Lockheed Martin's offer for 12 aircraft, sans the other package inclusions, is still beyond the PAF's budget. At best it can onpy afford 6 Vipers.
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2. Delivery - apparently Saab can deliver the first 4 aircraft in less than 1 year from NTP release. Meanwhile Lockheed Martin can't do the same, even for the freebie F-16 Block 30 that they committed to provide which may take at least a year to transfer to PAF.
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3. Despite this, it appears that its not the end of the Philippine Air Force's attempt to have the F-16 fighter in its arsenal. The PH-US Security Sector Assistance Roadmap is still open for options to obtain used F-16s, probably Block 30 or 40 for transfer to the PAF.
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4. We mentioned before, the US remains open to the transfer of used F-16s for free, but requires the recepient to pay for mid life extensions & upgrades using American companies. The PAF may still have F-16 Block 70/72 Vipers in this way.
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5. But this means the Philippines will need to shell out money for the upgrades, and this may cost almost half the price of a brand new Gripen C. The US may assist by using FMF to shoulder part of the costs, or provide loans to assist in the payment of the upgrade works.
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More from @MonteroMax

Aug 28, 2023
Navantia also confirmed that they are the proponent offering the Rheinmetall Oerlikon Millennium Gun 35mm CIWS to Philippine Navy for its 2 Jose Rizal-class frigates. They will include supply and local installation with a partner shipyard in Bataan.
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The project is said to be worth Php5.2 billion, which matches the Frigate Lot 4 - CIWS Acquisition Project of the Philippine Navy as submitted under Horizon 3 Phase 1 worth Php5.27 billion. If chosen, they stand to likely supply CIWS to new HDC-3100 corvettes and 2 new LPDs
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The Millennium Gun is competing against Aselsan Gokdeniz dual-gun 35mm CIWS from Turkey, which has an option to have its own tracking & fire control radar and is believed to be the leading candidate for the PN's gun-based CIWS requirements.
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Read 4 tweets
Jun 28, 2023
The Philippine Army's Commanding General LtGen Romeo Brawner confirmed that there are plans to acquire the M142 HIMARS in the near future. This reinforces his previous statements during Exericse BALIKATAN 2023 where he said HIMARS is being considered.
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Based on information we've gathered, the M142 HIMARS will be acquired separately from the PA's "official" MLRS Acquisition project & will be negotiated with US as part of Security Sector Assistance Roadmap. 1 or 2 batteries are eyed under this program.
📷 Agence France-Presse
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Due to its high cost, only a few will be acquired, and PA will focus more on cheaper alternatives which includes Elbit Lynx PULS and Hanwha K239 Chunmoo, etc. The current Horizon 3 shopping list aims for 8 MLRS batteries in total, subject to final approval by Malacanang.
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Read 4 tweets
Jun 9, 2023
Looking at the US' inventory of sea assets available for transfer/sale to allies, we fear that there isn't too many options that can be provided to the Philippines as part of the US-PH Security Sector Assistance Roadmap.
Either they are too old or too expensive to sustain.
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1. The Oliver Hazard Perry-class are now old & expensive to revitalize, not to mention the availability for allies. Bahrain got a 2nd ship for $150m but needs a lot of work which may cost more than $100m extra.
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2. The closest option the PN could have would be the Littoral Comvat Ships, some of which are available to US allies for transfer/sale. While these are said to be maintenance-heavy & have hull issues, remember there are difference in USN & PN operation tempo & standards.
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Read 12 tweets
Jun 1, 2023
Hyundai Heavy Industries' plan to setup a shipbuilding facility at the Cerberus Agila Subic Shipyard (former Hanjin Subic Shipyard) appears to be aimed at four potential market developments where the Korean shipbuilder may take advantage in participating.
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1. The US Navy is studying the use of Japanese shipbuilders to maintain its ships in the region. And this is believed to potentially expand to South Korea, the Philippines & Singapore.

HHI's facility in both Korea and the Philippines may be able to take advantage of this.
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2. HHI signed an agreement with the Philippine DND for the maintenance of PN's Jose Rizal-class frigates, and other HHI-built ships.

Having a facility in Subic allows for an easier implementation of this contract while augmenting the existing facilities in South Korea.
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Read 9 tweets
May 15, 2023
With the DND and AFP formulating drafts of their Horizon 3 phase procurement plans, it remains to be seen what their intentions are with regards to Horizon 2 projects that have failed to reach award to proponents. There appears to be 3 options for the AFP and DND... 1/x Image
1st option is to continue these balance projects as Horizon 2 (and Horizon 1) at the same time as Horizon 3 projects. 2nd is to move them as they are as Horizon 3 projects. Both options will mean the projects will proceed with the same objective, budget, quantity, and specs. 2/x Image
The 3rd option will be to scrap the unfunded Horizon 1 and 2 projects, and restart the planning process for Horizon 3. Some projects might return with a different spec, budget & quantity. Others might be scrapped & no longer pursued. 3/x
Read 5 tweets
May 12, 2023
Disappointed by the Armed Forces of the Philippines' new defense strategy that appears to be a passive "Retreat to Shore" strategy, where we would rely too much on allies to fight outside our EEZ while our defenses become effective only when the enemy gets too close to shore. 1/x Image
Too much emphasis will be given to Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) and reduced overreaching capabilities of defending the outer regions of our EEZ and Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOC). This means reducing reliance on ships & aircraft to venture out & for weapons delivery. 2/x ImageImage
I believe A2/aD using land based missile systems are force multipliers to warships & combat aircraft, and should't be the other way around. Export-model SSMs are limited by range due to MTCR. Brahmos for PH is only 290km (156nmi), not 450km like those used by India. 3/x Image
Read 8 tweets

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