Thread by @RimlandAgency

#ukrainewar 1/ We cannot assume with confidence who provoked the disaster, but until now there are three major hypothesis on collapse.
For many, the dam crashed due to poor maintenance by Russian authorities, who administrate the site.

#UkraineWar 2/ The scarce maintenance of the dam is known since may, and it is proven by these images, where you can note a stretch of pathway collapsed much before yesterday breakdown.

#UkraineWar 3/ The hypothesis of an accidental disaster is supported by the lose-lose ratio of the event, which flooded both sides of the river, forcing both belligerents to deploy resources to evacuate civilians, and registering various material losses. Affected areas below:

#UkraineWar 4/ More specifically, Ukrainians are currently "wasting" resources and energies to react to the flood, instead of fully concentrate efforts on the upcoming counter-offensive, while Russians saw their defense positions on the left bank being destroyed by the flood.

#UkraineWar 5/ Moreover, Russians used to cool down the six reactors of Zaporizhzhia NPP with water from the Kakhovka Reservoir. Although there is no damage, the assessed inoperability of the dam could lead to related issues in the future.

#UkraineWar 6/ Another point is that the last part of the Dniepr River is unwalkable due to the presence of more water and, most importantly, mud. This means both sides can withdraw troops from here, to reallocate them north of Kakhovka Reservoir, where water level decreased.

#UkraineWar 7/ Finally, Russian authorities and propagandists seemed to be caught off guard during the night, when the disaster occurred. The first claims of collapse were denied, later the situation was taken lightly, than finally was evident.

#UkraineWar 8/ The second hypothesis focuses on direct Russian fault, comprehending two possibilities. The first concerns the Russians blowing up the dam with explosives (according to this, the pillars where too strong to collapse to natural forces or from Ukrainian missiles).

#UkraineWar 9/ Russians could have used this gimmick to slow the Ukrainian counter-offensive or to deflect a possible new offensive in the Kherson region, which was highly improbable though#. Other says Russians made it collapse because they know they could not won the war.

#UkraineWar 10/ That's almost impossible, cause Russia started this war mainly to "protect" Crimea and it would be foolish to concede this event. There could be good reasons for Russians to be directly involved, but this is not one of those.

#UkraineWar 11/ Furthermore, Putin lately announced Mariupol airport will be reopened to long distance flights in 2024-2025, marking the intentions of the Kremlin to keep the control of the occupied regions.

#UkraineWar 12/ Some people took some evidences of Russian involvement. One is an abnormal amount of water stored in the Reservoir during the last month, as if the Russians were suspiciously amassing water to do something we could not know. Here are the water levels:

#UkraineWar 13/ But there have been many rainy days in may. Second is a law enacted by Russian government on May 30th about the introduction of a standstill on investigations on accidents in dangerous production facilities and hydrotechnical plants following military operations.

#UkraineWar 14/ The third hypothesis concerns an Ukrainian involvement in the disaster, but it is highly improbable, cause Kyiv's strike capability could not cause such damage. Neither could have been Ukrinian saboteurs, as the area is under strict Russian control for 14 months.

#UkraineWar 15/ The supposed evidence of Ukraine faults on the disaster stands on the pivotal role of the dam to supply fresh water to Crimea, through the channel you see below.

#UkraineWar 16/ Others say that lower water levels in the Reservoir could help Ukrainians operate new offensives to the left bank, maybe to Zaporizhzhia NPP.
So far, we can only witness the huge damage on both sides, waiting for intelligence verdicts to solve the "mystery".

@threadreaderapp unroll please