Prof John Curtice asks, “Does Brexit still matter?”
If you look at polls, since the TCA, attitudes have shifted from a majority in favour of EU exit to a majority in favour of a hypothetical rejoin.
If you look at polls, since the TCA, attitudes have shifted from a majority in favour of EU exit to a majority in favour of a hypothetical rejoin.
While Tories counted on Leave voters to win the 2019 election, those voters are less likely to support them now.
Labour’s current lead is driven by strength among Remainers but also by those who didn’t vote in 2019 and by 2019 Leave-supporting Tory voters.
Labour’s current lead is driven by strength among Remainers but also by those who didn’t vote in 2019 and by 2019 Leave-supporting Tory voters.
Now @LukeTryl of @Moreincommon_ says nationwide focus groups have shared two major shared threads running down the country: People are exhausted with politics, and there’s a wide sense that the UK isn’t working anymore➡️➡️Conservative struggles in polls.
ON LEADERS:
Sunak has a competence advantage, but struggles with control of his party, perception of strength, and relatability during cost of living crisis.
Starmer has advantage over previous Labour leadership, but the public don’t know his vision for the UK.
Sunak has a competence advantage, but struggles with control of his party, perception of strength, and relatability during cost of living crisis.
Starmer has advantage over previous Labour leadership, but the public don’t know his vision for the UK.
Come election time, there’s room for Tories to gain incumbency advantage if cost of living struggles lessen and Labour struggle to communicate their vision.
Conversely, in Scotland, Labour could gain SNP voters on the back of discontent with Tories.
Conversely, in Scotland, Labour could gain SNP voters on the back of discontent with Tories.
“Tactical voting is going to play a huge part in the next election...but it shouldn’t be needed” -@carolvorders
With a fairer electoral system, every vote would count equally, but FPTP makes us navigate confusing alliances to get our voice heard.
With a fairer electoral system, every vote would count equally, but FPTP makes us navigate confusing alliances to get our voice heard.
For tactical voting, @carolvorders reminds us that advice will change very quickly.
With over 200 marginal seats and a web of electoral pacts, opposition voters will need guides to defeat the Govt.
With over 200 marginal seats and a web of electoral pacts, opposition voters will need guides to defeat the Govt.
For Best for Britain’s guide to tactical voting, visit getvoting.org
Prof John Curtice and @LukeTryl say that while Sunak is “less unpopular” than his party, his personal popularity could still be dragged down.
That’s all this morning from SW1!
You can catch us on 20th June at @TradeUnlocked, where hundreds of businesses will gather at the Birmingham NEC to add their voices to a trade policy blueprint fit for the next decade.
Learn more about #TU23 at tradeunlocked.co.uk
You can catch us on 20th June at @TradeUnlocked, where hundreds of businesses will gather at the Birmingham NEC to add their voices to a trade policy blueprint fit for the next decade.
Learn more about #TU23 at tradeunlocked.co.uk
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