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Neil 'Winston' Smith 🕊 Profile picture
@Machiavellecon
Jun 7 • 3 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The birth of 'macroeconomics' as a formal discipline, 1933, with caveats of what was inevitably to come to formal theory!

Still very relevant to problems we witness everyday in forecasting WTH is happening! ImageImageImage
JM Keynes, being the son of a Professor of logic & scientific methodology, would have recognised Carveth Read's 'Fallacy of Exactness' 👇& how that applies to macroeconomics proper (hence the oft repeated apocryphal Keynes quote). ImageImageImage
While the necessary simulations were necessary for Frisch's envisioned dynamic analysis (proto-#SystemDynamics)👇 it was impractical, because his 'computers' (a roomful of peeps doing sums with pen & paper) were not very efficient.

The rest is history. Image

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More from @Machiavellecon

Neil 'Winston' Smith 🕊 Profile picture
Feb 6
Keynes 1923 on commodities. Is this where we find ourselves with the entire energy complex?
There's a danger that the 2020s ends up being a disastrous result of ambiguous (if not actively dishonest) political messaging at national & supranational level about our collective political ability to wean ourselves off fossil fuel, & replace that energy with renewables.
For example:
ft.com/content/5f13fe…
Read 4 tweets
Neil 'Winston' Smith 🕊 Profile picture
Feb 3
From the ruling ( here: coindesk.com/business/2023/… ) Image
The defence argument is essentially "law can't tell us what to do because it goes against what we believe as a culture, and it would kill BTC/BCH"! 😂 Image
"the dispute on decentralisation which 𝙘𝙖𝙣𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙗𝙚 𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙤𝙡𝙫𝙚𝙙 𝙬𝙞𝙩𝙝𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙖 𝙩𝙧𝙞𝙖𝙡." i.e., the 'court of Twitter' is irrelevant. Image
Read 8 tweets
Neil 'Winston' Smith 🕊 Profile picture
Nov 26, 2022
I think this indicates we're at about stage 8 on The Road to Brexit Britain Serfdom.
Read 4 tweets
Neil 'Winston' Smith 🕊 Profile picture
Nov 23, 2022
"Bitcoin was invented to circumvent the world’s central banks". 🤦‍♂️FFS! Can someone write something intelligent about Bitcoin?
politico.com/newsletters/di…
I see laser-eyes are frothing at the mouth over this paper. But:
(i) the assumption that mining pools won't be subject to sanctions requests is wrong; &
(ii) what's the optimal allocation if assumed returns are consistently negative as BTC trends to 0?sites.google.com/view/matthewfe… Image
Key assumptions/assertions here, which the anarchist community love, but are 'troubling' at least. This is why BTC's future is either comply with law or degenerate into multiple outlawed forks. ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Neil 'Winston' Smith 🕊 Profile picture
Nov 14, 2022
Back at Uni of Exeter last week to give a guest lecture on money & 'Bitcoin'. Some slides FWIW. Feel free to fight me! 😁
The two concepts of money is the irreconcilable difference.
"Is Bitcoin money?"

Thinking this question has a sensible answer is a result of holding a particular ideological commitment to a particular concept of what money is.
Read 15 tweets
Neil 'Winston' Smith 🕊 Profile picture
Nov 9, 2022
A regulatory arbitrage does not make an industry. sequoiacap.com/article/sam-ba…
For anyone whose life has not involved ignoring, or trying to ignore regulatory compliance in the financial industry, the term 'red tape' is doing a lot of work here!!
This is pretty crazy stuff, & hardly a scalable business model. You'd think it would actually raise massive red-flags among VCs rather than lead to the conclusion that he's a genius (although he may well be, this isn't the evidence).
Read 8 tweets

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