A thread with key quotes from Druckenmiller at #BloombergInvest:
1. On his current fat pitch:
"So I honestly.. don't see a fat pitch right now. What I do think is...given everything I've outlined, some really fat pitches are going to emerge in say, the next 8 to 24 months"
"I think I'm probably wrong and I'm gonna go back to the end of 23, but the real answer is, I don't know."
3. On how AI will perform in a recession:
"All of AI's not gonna make it through whether we have a recession or not, because they haven't separated the wheat from the chaff yet. But I do believe unlike crypto, I think AI is real"
4. On Nvidia:
"If [AI is] as big as I think it is, Nvidia is something we're gonna want to own for at least two or three years, not for 10 months and maybe longer"
5. On China:
"I was in love with China until about six or seven years ago...And then Xi Jinping did his thing...looking out, I do not look at them as a big challenge in the United States in terms of economic power and growth"
6. On Japan:
"You have a couple of things going on. They look like they're solving deflation...They're really into the whole shareholder value thing. And then you got a guy running monetary policy and he sounds like Jerome Powell two years ago. inflation is taking off there"
7. On his reflections on shorting:
"If I look back the last 40 years - I'm afraid to look- I've never had a down year, but I'm not sure I've made money in shorts"
Key Quotes from the Alphabet [@Google] Q3 24 Earnings Call:
1. It was a "great, quarter guys!"
"We had another strong quarter in Q3 with robust momentum across the business. Consolidated revenue increased by 15% or 16% in constant currency" - $GOOG $GOOGL CFO
"Google Cloud...This business has real momentum and the overall opportunity is increasing as customers embrace Gen AI. We generated Q3 revenues of $11.4B, up 35% over last year with operating margins of 17%"
$GOOG $GOOGL
3. Google Cloud saw strong mrgin expansion:
"The first is scale. Obviously, as we scale the business, we have more opportunity for margin expansion. But the second... is the work the team has done to drive efficiencies across the cloud business..."
Some Key Quotes & Charts from the TSMC Q3 2024 Earnings Call:
1. AI demand is real:
" The demand is real, and I believe it's just the beginning of this demand, all right? As one of my key customers said, the demand right now is insane"
"Third quarter revenue increased 12.8% percent sequentially in NT, as our business was supported by strong smartphone and AI-related demand for our industry-leading 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies"
3. Strong demand outlook:
"We continue to observe extremely robust AI-related demand from our customers throughout H1 2024, leading to increasing overall capacity utilization rate for our leading-edge three-nanometer and five-nanometer process technologies" - $TSM CEO
Key Quotes from the Alphabet [@Google] Q2 2024 Earnings Call:
1. Solid Quarter Overall:
"For the second quarter, our consolidated revenues were $84.7B, up 14% or up 15% in constant currency. Search remained the largest contributor to revenue growth" - CFO
@sundarpichai @finchat_io @TrinityAssetMan @carlquintanilla @SamRo 2. On integrating AI into Search:
"We are pleased to see the positive trends from our testing continue as we roll out AI overviews, including increases in search usage and increased user engagement" - CEO
$GOOG $GOOGL
3. YouTube is growing nicely:
"YouTube advertising revenues of $8.7B were up 13%, driven by brand followed by direct response advertising...We had healthy watch time growth continued to close the monetization gap in Shorts & had continued momentum in Connected TV"
"think of a stock; it's a time series...it has a value every day, it goes up, it goes down. You can analyze time series mathematically, and especially if you have hundreds or thousands of these time series, you can compare them & so on"
3. On why he never hires investment industry people:
"You can teach a physicist finance, but you can’t teach a finance person physics...we wanted smart scientists & we had some astronomers, we had some physicists, we had some mathematics people & they would learn the business"
Key Quotes from Apple [@Apple] Q1 2024 Earnings Call:
1. Finally some growth:
"Apple is reporting revenue of $119.6B for the December quarter, up 2% from a year ago despite having 1 less week in the quarter" - $AAPL CFO
@DisruptorStocks @carlquintanilla @LeoNelissen @SamRo @ConsensusGurus @eWhispers @EarningsScout 2. On growth in services revenue:
"Services revenue set an all-time record of $23.1 billion, up 11% year-over-year. When we take into account the extra week last year, this represents a sequential acceleration of growth from the September quarter"
3. On growth in Mac sales:
"Mac generated revenue of $7.8B & returned to growth ...This represents a significant acceleration from the September quarter when we faced a challenging compare due to the supply disruptions & subsequent demand recapture we experienced a year ago"
"...I picked ~25% ...not so much that I can control the company. but it's enough that I have a strong influence...what I'm aiming for, is a strong influence, but not control" - @elonmusk
@Tesla @teslaownersSV @WholeMarsBlog @ConsumeOwnTech @finding_value_ @ChrisBloomstran @Prof_Kalkyl @john_bresnahan @SamRo 2. Fremont factory is the highest output car factory in North America
"...we made 560,000 cars. This is a record. In fact, it's the highest output of automotive plants in North America..the highest output car factory in NA is in the San Francisco Bay area" - $TSLA
3. Tesla CEO @elonmusk when asked about margin expectations:
"If the interest rates come down quickly, I think margins will be good. And if they don't come down quickly, they won't be that good"