Thread by @veruka2

It doubled.
We asked how overdose changed after law enforcement officers seize opioids - any quantity of opioids - from someone in the community.
Overdose doubled. (link down 🧵) 1/

This study was led by @BRaySociologist and many other contributors including @BrandondelPozo @gwittervitter1 myself and others. We used complete property room data from Indianapolis Municipal Police - every drug seizure of any type or quantity over a period of 2 years. 2/

We then compared the time/date/location of those drug seizures to the time/date/location of fatal overdoses (from death data) and non-fatal overdoses (from EMS data). Overdoses happen all the time, but if seizing drugs protects public health, we'd expect ODs to go down after. 3/

But
They
Doubled.
We found that police seizure of opioid drugs (any kind, any amount) predicted a 2-fold increase in overdoses in the surrounding area in the following days. And there were a lot of drug seizures, so that means a lot of excess overdose. 4/

Does this study prove that this relationship is causal? No. That's not how studies like this one work. This is not an airtight case that police activity causes overdose. BUT the study demonstrates several things that STRONGLY SUGGEST causality. 5/

First, we looked at pre-post trends to ensure that seizures occur *before* spikes in overdose. They do.
Second, we don't see the same spikes after seizures of stimulants like meth and coke. This is unique to opioid seizures b/c that's how opioid overdose works.
6/

Finally, we have studies that demonstrate, provide clear proof of concept, that drug market disruptions increase overdose risk. I'm super familiar with these studies, because I've written some of them. Disrupting supply & supply networks fuels opportunity for deadly accidents. 7/

So how should we interpret this study? I'd say it sure *looks like* police interdiction of illicit drug markets is driving a big portion of the ODs that interdiction is supposed to prevent. This study adds to the growing body of consistent evidence that suggests as much. 8/

And, for me, this puts drug induced homicide laws and other efforts to prosecute overdoses like homicides in a pretty damning light. Police activity is likely responsible the very overdoses we are arresting/prosecuting people for allegedly "causing." That's...messed up. 9/

This study was just released in @AMJPublicHealth today. Read the whole thing here:
ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.21…. . 10/

And read AJPH Editor @nabarund 's awesome editorial on the implications of these findings here:
ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJ…
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