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thiccy Profile picture
@thiccythot_
Jun 8 • 17 tweets • 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
my writings compiled into one megathread in chronological order

something for everyone:

- trading metagames
- defi research
- crypto derivatives
- dao shenanigans

1/ Image
[DEFI RESEARCH]

On the profitability of Uniswap Liquidity Providers

2/
[DEFI RESEARCH]

On categorizing retail vs toxic uniswap trades

3/
[DEFI RESEARCH]

On characterizing the most toxic and profitable Uniswap swappers and their behaviors

4/
[DEFI RESEARCH]

On the profitability of the crypto casino, GMX

5/
[CRYPTO DERIVATIVES]

On a framework for thinking about volatility and options in crypto

6/
[DAO SHENANIGANS]

On the game theory of crypto airdrops

7/
[DAO SHENANIGANS]

On the mechanics of token market making deals

8/
[DAO SHENANIGANS]

On governance theatrics

9/
[TRADING METAGAMES]

On evaluating project tokenomics at launch day

10/
[TRADING METAGAMES]

On the science of PEPE and the liquidity tricks used to create generational paper wealth

11/
[CRYPTO DERIVATIVES]

On the changing liquidity conditions in the crypto derivatives landscape

12/
[TRADING METAGAMES]

On why Halvenings are perceived as bullish

13/
[TRADING METAGAMES]

On Bitcoin's fluctuating correlations in the broader global macro landscape

14/
[TRADING METAGAMES]

On evaluating price action around token unlocks

15/
[CRYPTO DERIVATIVES]

On the engineering behind crypto derivative short squeezes

16/
[THICCY]

On thiccy's fitness progress

That's it for now

Will be adding future threads to this megathread as I write them

Love you guys 🩷🩷🩷

17/

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More from @thiccythot_

thiccy Profile picture
Jun 2
the financial engineering of crypto derivative explosions

a story about the trading dynamics behind the explosive leveraged degeneracy this past week

for noobs and veterans alike

1/ Image
1) What
started it all

On May 29, $150M of leverage built up on TOMO, a 100MM market cap coin at the time

TOMO then exploded and squeezed shorts over 120% in 5 minutes from $1.2 to over $2.5

2/ Image
Let’s review some basics

How do we measure leverage?

leverage is a financial derivative called a ‘perpetual’ or ‘perp’

open interest (OI) is the # of perp contracts betting on the price

it measures the amount of leverage in the system

3/
thiccy.substack.com/p/perpetuals-1…
Read 17 tweets
thiccy Profile picture
May 31
what if the insiders don't distribute the unlocked coins until after the upgrade?

are you prepared to hold your shorts for a few weeks?
i took some of your upnl but you can still close your shorts anon

it's not too late Image
turns out the unlock is actually not 0 utc today

kek
Read 4 tweets
thiccy Profile picture
May 30
Optimism and Sui have token large unlocks coming up this week

A 🧵on unlocks (for those who don't understand)

AND

my thoughts around the trading dynamics around the unlocks coming up this week

1/ Image
What are unlocks?

When crypto projects launch tokens, they don't get them all at once

Typically these "vest" or "unlock" over years so that service providers are incentivized to grow the network over the long term

These unlock according to a predetermined schedule

2/ Image
Crypto markets are typically giga retarded at pricing in forward events, as evidenced by trading dynamics from the US gov sale

As such, these unlocks (which have publicly known dates and amounts) often go unnoticed or mispriced

3/
Read 16 tweets
thiccy Profile picture
May 28
Rolling correlations of bitcoin with other global macro assets

I spent my Saturday night looking at some correlations after spending Friday night with a real girl

(you guys probably wouldn't understand)

some analysis :3

1/ Image
Bitcoin correlation to risk (tech) has steadily declined in the past months

Bitcoin correlation to gold has stayed relatively constant in the past months

2/ Image
The spread between the amount of Bitcoin variance explained by risk vs. gold has steadily declined since mid March

The emergence of Bitcoin's banking "save haven" narrative has contributed to this effect

That being said, it's still slightly more correlated to risk right now

3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
thiccy Profile picture
May 18
does anyone know what satofishi.eth is plotting with SNX?

it's been trading weirdly

he's been draining CEX supply of $SNX on ETH and moving it over to Optimism just to deposit it back into Binance to repeat the same loop

1/ ImageImageImageImage
one theory is that this restricts the supply on ETH, since it takes 7 days to move the tokens back from the L2 to the L1

Seems like all CEXes have lost ETH balances over the past few weeks

but why is he doing this? ImageImage
optimistic.etherscan.io/address/0x50aa…

platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entit…
Read 8 tweets
thiccy Profile picture
May 14
I looked into Litecoin and its upcoming Halvening in ~70 days

some weekend writing about:

the psychology of Halvenings
and whether Litecoin even needs to exist anymore

1/ Image
First some history

Litecoin was created in 2011 based off Bitcoin with faster blocktimes and a different mining algorithm

Litecoin, like Bitcoin, halves the amount of block rewards for miners every 4 years in order to reduce inflation and increase scarcity

A true dinosaur

2/ Image
Why are Halvenings bullish?

Well the first-order answer is that since rewards to miners decrease by half, this reduces the amount of structural sell supply

less selling = higher price

simple enough

3/ ImageImage
Read 16 tweets

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