Thread by @LKaspersky

🧵1/ Russia invaded Ukraine and the world food chain suffers.
Food & fertilizer prices spiked.
June 2's 4-party grain & Togliatti-Odesa pipeline deal has humanitarian & geopolitical ramifications.
June 6 the pipe was damaged June 6.
Who wins, why, & what role do sanctions play?

🧵2/ The Togliatti-Odesa (also transliterated Tolyatti) pipeline runs 2471 km from TogliattiAzot, a chemical factory on the Volga owned by oligarch Dmitry Mazepin, a close associate of Putin, to Odesa.
fertilizerdaily.com/20221209-togli…

🧵3/ Fertilizer and food are exempt from US & EU sanctions but Kommersant says RU fertilizer exports will fall 10% in 2022 from 2021.
Revenue remains ~$12.5B since prices are up.
RU shut the T-O pipeline in Feb 2022 like they shut Nordstream in June.
kommersant.ru/doc/5692695

🧵4/ June 2 deal keeps 🇺🇦 grain flowing to Turk ports.
UN will inspect ships for arms.
USA firm Trammo will buy ammonia from TogliattiAzot & pay 🇺🇦 to use the pipeline to send gas to Odesa.
June 6 the pipe sprang a leak.
Sabotage?
Accident?
Who did it?
reuters.com/world/europe/r….

🧵5/ RU fertilizer revenue could rise 10% or more ($1.2B) if the T-O pipe opens but it's (yellow circle on LiveUA map) in a war zone 30km from Troitske, a rail hub, and was struck by Russian artillery.
Repair means that Ukraine's counter strike couldn't occur there.
Benefit RU

🧵6/ Why would 🇺🇦 blow the pipeline four days after making a deal to keep exporting its grain to world markets?
It is so convenient that the pipe can be repaired in 1-3 months right when that territory is in the path of Ukraine's #counteroffensive.
🇺🇦would get $$ from Trammo too.

🧵7/ Fertilizer and food are big business, exempt from sanctions, and are products that Russia has in abundance
(see chart: exporters above zero, importers below).
So does Ukraine, which is why Russia wants Ukrainian territory.
They are happy to kill 🇺🇦 people, even 🇷🇺 people.

🧵8/ Mazepin contributed to Haas Formula 1 team, now his playboy son Nikita drives a Ferrari.
He has a middling record (no points).
Nikita is "neutral" on Ukraine and his daddy's tie to Putin.
Oops!
Sanctions.
Banned.
🤣🤣🤣
formula1.com/en/results.htm…

🧵9/ Food and fertilizer to grow it are a vital requirement for humanity.
Russia dangles a fertilizer and grain deal then takes it away with a cynical ploy to foil Ukraine's #counteroffensive.
I hope the deal goes on because the world and 🇺🇦 need it.
ft.com/content/c617b4…

🧵10/ Russia wants to slow the shipment of grain until the pipeline is fixed.
It would be a mistake for Ukraine to hurry the repair if it compromises the #counteroffensive.
nytimes.com/2022/07/22/wor…

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