Thread by @USCentrist

Update on the #Zaporizhzhia attacks:
- This is clearly the main focus of the Ukrainian planned counteroffensive, masses of armored column pushes are far beyond the scope of "probing" missions
- This is where the Russian fixed defenses and mobile reserves are strongest 1/9

- The terrain is flat with many towns, but the Russians have prepared around 4 "layers" of trenches, ditches, minefields, and anti-tank
- At the center of the 4th and the centerpoint of the defenses is the city of Tokmak, the main logistical hub for the entire Russian defense 2/9

- The Ukrainian objective is hold down fixed defenses with artillery while using the armor to bypass them, move on Tokmak, and compromise the entire defense
- Both forces in the sector are around equal, Ukr armored forces better equipped and Ru air forces more numerous 3/9

- Early Ukrainian artillery attacks dealt significant casualties but did not break fixed defenses
- Many Ukrainian armored rushes have faced stiff fire, and Russian air/drone attacks have been swift in attacking isolated Russian armored colums with devastating effect 4/9

- Some Russian units have performed very good elastic defense operations, ceding ground and then recapturing it, others, notably around Myrne and Lobkhove, have reportedly deserted or withdrawn after heavy artillery attack 5/9

- Russia has already committed almost all of their mobile reserves, somewhere around 30-40,000 men, while Ukrainian offensives have maybe only used up 2/3 of their best brigades, a little more than 25% of their available attack forces 6/9

- The Ukrainian offensive on the right flank, in the direction of Robotyne-Tokmak, has been the most effective, occupying the high ground on top of Robotyne and then bypassing the city to advance down the road past the 2nd defensive line 7/9

- The situation is confused by the large number of Ukrainian partisans and commando units operating behind Russian lines, leading to many sabotage operations already around Tokmak, though this is notably behind the combat front line 8/9

- Heavy fighting on Lukhove and Robotyne axis, while the Ukrainian forces suffering heavy losses, around 100/150 lost tank/mechanized, have inflicted more than 10/12,000 Russian casulties, many more than their own, even as progress on territorial capture remains minimal. 9/9