Matt Ridley Profile picture
Jun 11 6 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Thorough, detailed reporting by @Arbuthnott into the work of the Wuhan Institute of Virology - with one or two minor errors, eg picture of fruit bats, not horseshoe bats; and in places not enough credit to the work of others.

The most interesting new revelations are: (thread)
“They were working with the 9 different Covid variants,” one of the investigators said. They believe one virus at the WIV was an even closer match to Covid-19 than RaTG13. “We are confident they were working on a closer unpublished variant — possibly collected in Mojiang,”
“We were rock-solid confident that [illness of 3 researchers] was likely Covid-19 because they were working on advanced coronavirus research in the laboratory of Dr Shi. They’re trained biologists in their thirties and forties. 35yo scientists don’t get very sick with influenza.”
"When they arrived, they were told the Moijang mine was closed, so they sampled bats in another abandoned copper mine nearby. On the first day of their work, police arrived, seized the samples and took them to their station, where they were interrogated and detained for 48 hours"
"Eventually, there was a total clampdown on Covid origin work. Searching for bat viruses was banned in Yunnan in early 2021 and new restrictions on foreign researchers made it difficult for [Alice] Hughes to continue her work."
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More from @mattwridley

Mar 4
Fourth thread from my @times essay today.

The WIV did not just hoard bat sarbecoviruses; it experimented on them.

thetimes.co.uk/article/fbi-sa…
By swapping spike genes between bat viruses they sometimes increased the infectivity of the viruses 10,000-fold in mice with human genes.
Some of these experiments were done at inappropriately low biosafety levels. But again, none of the published experiments used a virus that could have directly caused Covid. Were there unpublished ones?
Read 16 tweets
Mar 4
Third thread on my @times essay.

An argument against the lab leak is that western scientists trawling through deep sequencing data can sometimes find traces in databases of what other labs are working on; so far nothing on this virus before the outbreak has surfaced.
RaTG13’s importance took a knock in 2021 when French scientists working in Laos reported that they had found a bat virus even more closely related to Sars-Cov-2. Called Banal-52, this virus is 96.8 per cent the same as Sars-Cov-2.

nature.com/articles/s4158…
For 2 reasons however, this discovery does not exonerate the lab. First, the new virus is actually slightly less similar over most of its genome than RaTG13, except in the spike gene where it is much more similar. The spike gene is the very bit that scientists sometimes alter.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 4
Second thread on the @times essay on what happened in Wuhan.

Viruses v similar to Sars-Cov-2 were found in horseshoe bats in Yunnan and Laos, and more distant relatives in Cambodia, Thailand, E China and Japan. But none near Wuhan, in more than 10,000 bats sampled by Wuhan CDC.
When Shi Zhengli first heard about the outbreak, she told a journalist: “I had never expected this kind of thing to happen in Wuhan...Could they have come from our lab?”
How did a virus travel from a bat in Yunnan or Laos to Wuhan, more than 1,000 miles to the northeast?

Horseshoe bats don’t migrate such long distances, so there are 4 plausible carriers:

- infected animal
- infected ordinary person
- infected scientist
- scientific sample
Read 8 tweets
Mar 4
Here's some of what I say in my @thetimes essay today. First in a series of threads.

One thing is certain: there is no smoking gun that implicates a lab. No evidence has emerged that this precise virus was in the WIV or any other laboratory in Wuhan before the pandemic began.
But then there is no smoking gun that implicates a natural spillover either. No animal infected with this precise virus before the pandemic has been found in a market, a farm or in transit, in Wuhan or anywhere in China.
This is pretty astonishing more than three years after the pandemic began. In previous outbreaks it has usually proved possible to indict either a lab leak or a food chain within weeks or months.
Read 13 tweets
Feb 28
I asked Chat GPT a few simple questions about furin cleavage sites in sarbecoviruses. This was the result.
How many sarbecoviruses have furin cleavage sites?
It had given an incorrect answer so I corrected it (and spellchecker corrected me, wrongly! "Turin"!). It apologised generously but gave another incorrect answer.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 28
Pretty well every major organisation, from the World Health Organisation (WHO) to the BBC, the CIA and CNN, refused to take [the lab leak] seriously. Meanwhile, pro-Beijing spin doctors got to work on social media denouncing the lab-leak hypothesis.

.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
Britain is supposed to be one of the leading biomedical research nations in the world, with strong capabilities in virology and epidemiology. Yet as far as I can tell, none of our great research universities has even tried to get a grant to investigate the possibility of a leak.
I pressed the Royal Society to hold a debate on the origin of the virus. They told me they were 'not convinced that, as things stand, the specifically scientific dimensions of this question are clear enough to warrant a Royal Society sponsored debate'.
Read 8 tweets

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