Thread by @micahddrew

Welp, I'm here in with a veritable media circus to cover Held v. Montana, the constitutional climate change trial. If you need to get up to speed, peruse mtclimatecase.flatheadbeacon.com I'll be tweeting throughout with a recap of today when things wrap up
#mtclimatecase #mtnews #mtpol

Trial doesn't start for 40 minutes but we've got 25 members of the media gossiping, the plaintiffs are seated and maybe 25 members of the public.

Of note, Mae Nan Ellingson is here- she was a delegate to the 1972 Constitutional Convention and helped enshrine the clean and healthful environment provisions.
Read about that here:
mtclimatecase.flatheadbeacon.com/to-a-clean-and…

Nice full lower level in Judge Seeley's courtroom today.

There is a live Zoom stream if anyone has a free day on their hands and want to watch along

Opening statement for the plaintiffs by Roger Sullivan, attorney from Kalispell.

"Montana's environment is neither clean nor healthful because of this climate disruption..." #mtclimatecase

Sullivan is offering an overview of the plaintiffs' arguments, which will include hearing from Mae Nan Ellingson re: putting the right to a clean and healthful environment in the constitution, and from top climate scientists including Dr. Steve Running, a Nobel co-recipient.

"Evidence will show that the losses experienced by the youth plaintiffs are not only to their physical and mental health, but also affects their economic well being." Many plaintiffs are/were competitive athletes in high school including Mica Kantor, a 5:05 miler as an 8th grader

Sullivan now walking us through Dr. Dan Fagre's testimony about melting glaciers in Glacier National Park. Fagre, a retired USGS researcher, helmed the Repeat Photography Project in the park, documenting the glaciers' melt. The North Face film "Shining Mountains" delves into this

"Some plaintiffs... express a reluctance to have children because they fear the world their children will grown up in..."
Now talking about the mental health impacts of climate change on young people.

"for decades, defendants have been aware of the effects & dangers of CC in MT."
Cites 2007 MT Climate Action Plan, which found “numerous adverse impacts to MT’s environment were expected to worsen in coming years as greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels continue to rise.”

Sullivan states that Montana's greenhouse gas emissions from the fossil fuel economy on on the order of 166 tons of CO2 annually — larger than countries like the Netherlands and Pakistan, despite only having a population of 1 million.

Now going through how Montana can undergo energy transition to move to renewable energy sources and away from coal/natural gas. MT currently gets ~45% of its electricity from hydropower.
Lots of facts will come out in testimony this week.

Now the Defense opening statement.
"the substance of this case is far more boring than the plaintiffs would make it out to be..."

Defense states that no relief can be granted by the court that will alleviate the plaintiff's claims of harm. And that's a short opening statement.

Up now, Mae Nan Ellingson, the youngest delegate from the 1972 Constitutional Convention, who, along with Bob Campbell, drafted the Preamble, and helped fight for the inclusion of the "clean and healthful environment" provisions

Mae Nan grew up in Texas, and honeymooned in Glacier National Park, "my impression was this is the most beautiful place I've ever seen." She later moved to Missoula.

She says that while living in University housing in Missoula, she couldn't see Mt. Sentinel from her kitchen window, due to bad air quality. she joined a group called "Gals Against Smog and Pollution," or GASP — a first brush with environmental activism work.

Mae Nan Ellingson speaks before District Court Judge Kathy Seeley.

During the ConCon, she was Mae Nan Robinson.
*random aside— the author of a MT law review article from a few years ago that looked at the Held case & MT constitution thought Mae Nan was a man in the article. Was very confusing when I first read it until I realized the mistake

My random observations of the other media folks.... we're mostly sitting in the jury box (cushy seats!). 3 people are going analog, hand writing notes. 7 have laptops open, myself included. I'm just using it to Tweet though — recording on my phone. Several are nonstop typing away

Mae Nan talking now about drafting the Constitution's preamble with Bob Campbell.
I heard that Bob Campbell was inspired while driving through Montana one night under a full moon. He also cited John Steinbeck's book Travels with Charley and C.M Russell's paintings as inspiration

Now getting to Article IX of the Constitution, which states "The state and each person shall maintain and improve a clean and healthful environment in Montana for present and future generations." Mae Nan says it took a long debate to add the modifiers "clean and healthful

“I’m proud of this constitution, I’m particularly proud of the right to a clean and healthful environment and our veery strong bill of rights. I support and encourage the young people of our state to be involved in our state.” ~ Mae Nan on why she agreed to be a witness

Mark Stermitz had a very brief line of questions for Ellingson for the defense.

Now on to Rikki Held, the oldest plaintiff. Read about her here:

mtclimatecase.flatheadbeacon.com/who-is-held-of…

Held just graduated from Colorado College with a degree in environmental science. She had early exposure to the world of science by joining USGS researchers studying the Powder River which crosses her family's 3,000+ acre ranch near Broadus.

First objection by attorneys for the defense, over the use of a visual aid showing Held's family house and ranch.
Held talks about riding horses since she was a baby, and herding cattle with her twin brother when she was four

Held's family's income derives from the ranch and from running a ranch in Broadus. She worked at the motel growing up and says hunting season was a busy time for the business.

She says she first learned about climate change during high school, researched on her own, and was able to draw connections between the climate change and her ranch. She talks about changes in wildlife behavior, and experiencing wildfires, floods, hailstorms.

Held gets emotional talking about having to work the ranch during extreme heat and wildfire smoke.
She's cut off by the defense for talking about the state's lack of action to prevent such conditions

Now talking about drought and the Powder River drying up. Held says in 2007 the river dried up — which may be the wrong year. Stream gauge data from the river shows it drying up in 2006, not 07. Regardless — not good. She also mentions extreme floods on the ranch

We're into a flurry of objections by the defense on Held's testimony about the effects of climate change on her ranch and mental health.
"It impacts the wellbeing of myself, my family, my community... I see the impacts, i know the science behind it. It's stressful seeing that."

No questions from the defense, but they did bring up an agricultural economic review of Broadus county.

Now onto expert witness Dr. Steve Running, a Nobel-co-recipient and part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Running has an extensive CV, including a Ph.D. in forest ecophysiology, ~30 years as a professor at UM, working on the Montana Climate Action Plan, a member of the NASA Science Committee, current member of the NASA earth observing system his IPCC work, etc., etc., etc.,

We're on minute 15 of establishing Running's credentials. The state tried to cut it down saying "we agree he's an expert" but the plaintiffs' attorneys really wanted this on the court record. Couple books he authored, couple awards he's gotten... "World's Most Influential Minds"

Lunch break before we get into the real heavy climate science

We back.

"Climate science clearly states we've imbalanced critical parts of the climate system" ~ Dr. Steven Running.

He talks about how the climate is getting more arid-- warmer air temperatures without more water. That leads to shorter winters, longer summers and "wildfires will get more wild than we've ever seen"

Asked if there's anything Montana could do, Running responded "It’s quite straight forward. I think Montana and really everywhere else needs to as rapidly as possible, quit burning fossil fuels."

now we're onto a discussion of the greenhouse effect.. Starting with 1896 scientists who realized burning coal would increase CO2 in the atmosphere and lead to a warming planet.

Now Running is sharing this "Keeling Curve," which tracks atmospheric CO2 concentration from Mauna Loa Observatory.

The world just passes a CO2 concentration of 424 ppm, as Running states.
washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro…

*note this article's source-- Dr. Keeling of the afore shown curve, whom Running just spoke of.

"It took 200 million years for the world to generate the fossil fuels — oil, coal gas, — we are digging it up and burning it in 200 years. So we have an imbalanced the global carbon cycle by a factor of 1 million, that's what we're in the middle of right now."

"Science is unequivocal that dangerous climate change is upon us and is occurring due to human activities, primarily from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels" ~ The Held complaint.
The plaintiff attorney shows a document where the defendants deny the above.

"Oh boy, this is where it can really get thick," says Running re: energy units and the upcoming scientific discussions about the "foundations of the physics of global warming"

Now talking about energy absorbed by the oceans — most of the trapped radiant energy.
Running uses Flathead Lake as an example how much "excess energy" is trapped
"If you were to boil off Flathead Lake 40000 times, that would about show what 360 Zetta Joules of energy would do."

"If we don't stabilize this, it's hard to note where the planet will be in another century or so."

He says the answer is to bring atmospheric CO2 to 360ppm to stabilize the climate, and to do so we must stop burning fossil fuels.

* 350 ppm * in the previous tweet. Expect many typos over the next few days.

"... is this the standard necessary to protect plaintiffs' ability to live clean and healthy lives?" Running: "Yes"

*From slide:
It took 140 years to rise 70 ppm from 280-350ppm.

It took 25 years to rise 70ppm from 350-420ppm.
"What we're seeing now from the simple temperature and atmospheric chemistry is the kind of acceleration the Keeling curve represents."

Running: we've heated 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit in the last 120 years, relative to the 1880-1920 average.

"to most people those don't sound like ver big numbers, because we experience 10 and 20 degrees of variation every day...it's the accumulation, that incremental temperature increase throughout the whole year."

Getting a thorough Climate Science 101 here lecture here.

We're digging into the latest IPCC assessment report. TL:DR, there's a "very high confidence" that the whole world will see more extreme weather due to increased temperatures due to increased CO2, etc. "climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health."

"there's a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all," ~ IPCC report.

Running says this applies to the young plaintiffs in this case.

Now looking at data about declining snowpack.
"we all know about champagne powder... that's when we all call in sick," ~ Running.
Less snow water equivalent = less skiing = less meltwater for streams.

Also says the fly fishing season is "already in jeopardy"

Now to wildfires — Data from the National Interagency Fire Center shows that the 10 years with the highest acreage burned all have occurred since 2004.
Running shares that fire seasons in Montana is a full 2 months longer than it was 40 years ago.

Talking about wildlife now... Defense objects to a discussion about snowshoe hares and changing fur color, saying Running isn't qualified as a wildlife biologist.

"I was a coauthor on this paper!" Running rebuts. Objection withdrawn.

"I think we're already seeing levels of damage and vulnerability that I think certainly the IPCC scientists are already getting exceptionally nervous... more vulnerability and damage it's hard for me to imagine whey anybody would be okay with that." ~ Dr. Running

Asked about what the overall evidence about climate change does re: the plaintiffs
"Harm now and accelerating harm in the future.”

Judge Seeley is overruling a lot of the objections by the defense, including one about the repeal of the State Energy Policy by the Legislature earlier this year.

Running replied "it's pretty hard to repeal physics."

"We really have to change the trajectory of emissions. We should have done it decades ago but the next best thing is right now. We have to slow down the trajectory."

Running says that in order to have a clean and healthful environment, you have to have a stable climate.

"80 more years of this trajectory, it's hard to imagine where the earthy's system would be functionally."

Now onto cross examination.

"if we look at all of your testimony today, it's all centered on the global causes of climate change, the global effects of climate change... if we talk about the 350ppm standard... could Montana get there on its own?" Running says no

Speaking of a hypothetical, "if the judge orders that we stop using fossil fuels in Montana, woudl that get us to the point where these plaintiffs are no longer being harmed," Stermitz asks.

Running says you can't tell how many other states would follow along MT's lead.

"The U.S. likes to claim that we're a leader and this is kind of a issue that maybe we should show some leadership."

We're done with testimony from Dr. Steve Running.

Ended with him agreeing that with every ton of CO2 admitted in Montana, it's harder to restore a stable climate.

Now hearing from another plaintiffs, 19-year-old Grace Gibson-Snyder

She was part of a service club in high school called SAVE — Students Against Violating the Environment. Also did a project to reduce single use plastic use in Missoula.

She's a student at Yale and is focusing on global affairs with an environmental policy focus.

“I think I grew up with climate change as part of my vocabulary, I think a lot of my generation has.”

Grace is testifying to the times as a soccer player for Hellgate High School when practices and games had to be canceled due to bad air quality from wildfire smoke.

#mtclimatecase

She talks about a hike in Glacier National Park in 2021 and visiting Sexton Glacier. "we were standing there and watching the glacier melt... The water was super loud, bc it was going off this cliff but it was crashing... i was really shocked at the actual volume of water."

"It was devastating to watch this thing that's so unique, so special... it's so powerful to be next to that and know I was watching it go away."

She talks about her belief that she's living in a climate crisis.
"There's frustration, there's guilt in the sense that I'm not doing my part... it's very intense to think about how your future will be impacted"

"I'm not sure I can normally or ethically have children"

This guilt and frustration "shouldn't have to be on my mind, it ideally wouldn't be on any of our minds, it would have been solved 50 years ago."

"I am a citizen... when the government are actively making choices that are shown to harm people, that's a betrayal of the people and it's undermining the role of government. and it is something that needs to be changed."

"i do have hope, i also have a healthy dose of urgency."

Looking directly at the defense table"A positive outcome with this suit, that the state would be held accountable and remain in line with the Constitution, would take a large portion of the weight off."

No Cross by the defense, on to the next plaintiff, Eva.

Eva is a 17-year-old from Livingston. She'll be a senior this fall, and is home schooled.

Eva is talking about her connection to the Yellowstone River, which runs through Livingston near her house.she calls it her favorite river, one she floats every summer.

Now we're getting to flooding, specifically last summer's major floods. June 13 — a year ago tomorrow — the river flooded. Eva talks about family friends whose homes and businesses flooded. She helped fill sandbags on the day of the flood and helped with cleanup after

"In that moment i felt threatened and attacked and I didn't know what to do.... I just couldn't quite wrap my head around it and it was all just very tumultuous."

She describes feeling panicked, the sense of urgency, the "dread of what the aftermath would look like," and concern about future flood events.

To get to Livingston from her house, Eva's family had to drive across both the Yellowstone and Shields river — one year the Shields bridge was damaged. A temporary bridge washed out, forcing a 30-mile detour to get to town.

On joining the lawsuit: "I couldn't vote, i still can't. So doing this is a way of getting my voice out there to be heard."

On what winning means: "It would be like a light at the end of the tunnel and just give me a sense that we're working in the right direction."

And that's a wrap on the day. Recessed until tomorrow. Wrap up story to come this evening.
Anyone who paid attention to Twitter this long... well done