Hey everybody, since the start of the offensive I have been compiling data on the different axis of advance. Cross referencing Project Owl's, militaryland's, JominiW's latest, LiveUAmap, Geoconfirmed, Bradyafrick I'm ready to release this 🧵as of 8:00 GMT: #counteroffensive
Within the greater Velyka Novosilka axis there are three main thrusts: one from the north going down both banks of the Mokri Yali River, one from the northwest, and and one crossing the Shaitanka River.
Down the center I assess to be the main thrust with the 68th Jag BDE on the right bank and the and a multi BAT force from the 35th Marines and 129th Terr Def on the left clearing settlements there. This is supported by the 47 Art. BDE and the 4th Tank BDE on Flanking the 68th JAG
From the northwest there were two actions one coming from further north composed of the 23rd OMBR and the 110th Terr Def BDE further south was a force that I could not identify but given previous forces in the area I assess to be likely BDE or + and composed of Terr Def Elements.
From the northeast holding down the flanks was a river crossing over the Shaitanka by the 37 Marine BDE which liberated the town of Novodonets'ke and seems to be holding for now.
Finally within over the last day it appears that the Russians attempted a counterattack against the central advance of this axis but were rather unceremoniously repelled by Ukrainian forces suffering losses in the process.
FTR that is USA 8:00 PM GMT EASTERN
Quick clarification OMBR denotes Mechanized Brigade its a romanization of the Ukrainian ОМБр
As I`ll be out of commission camping for a few days quick update as of 4:30 AM GMT 6/16/2023🧵
Nothing much has changed as yet along the center that is as yet confirmable, though it appears that UKR & RU forces seem to be fighting over Urozhane & Staromaorske. #counteroffensive
What we can see is that there does appear to be some Ukrainian offensive action on the flanks. It would appear that the elements of the 23rd, 31st, and 110th TDF seem to be advancing from the northwest.
While the 72nd OMBR and some as yet identified force advanced on Pavlika from the north and west.