David J. Bier Profile picture
Jun 13, 2023 12 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Legal immigration is *impossible* for nearly all immigrants wishing to immigrate to the U.S. legally.

You can’t just “get in line.” That’s a fiction perpetuated by those who want to keep immigration illegal.

My latest report explains why. Here’s the summary in 1 pic... 🧵 Image
U.S. immigration law's basic premise is that all immigrants are *guilty* until proven innocent.

Immigration is ILLEGAL unless you prove you fall into a narrow eligible category.

The result is that over 99% of people who want to immigrate legally cannot do so.
No one outside the U.S. is eligible for a green card unless they fall into one of five narrow exceptions...
⬇️
First Option: America’s Refugee Program—Accepts about 1 in 5,000 displaced people around the world, and the percentage accepted keeps dropping year after year. Image
Second Option: The Diversity Lottery—Accepts fewer than 1 in 500 applicants.

Because the lottery excludes the top-origin countries for legal immigrants, a majority of the world’s population is ineligible to apply. Image
3rd Option: Family Sponsorship—Only available to the closest relatives of U.S. citizens & green card holders—and still has a backlog of nearly 7 million thanks to an annual cap of just 226,000.

Most new sponsors in most categories will *die* before their relatives can immigrate. Image
Fourth Option: Self-Sponsorship—Available only to
-those with “extraordinary ability,”
-people with advanced degrees or “exceptional ability” who also have projects of “national importance,” and
-$800K-$1M investors who create 10 jobs in 2 years.

Not viable for many Image
Fifth/Final Option: Employer Sponsorship—Made impossible by red tape and low caps.

The normal employer-sponsored applicant will suffer through this insane filing maze, which can take between 2 and 3 years of processing time and cost tens of thousands of dollars. Image
Very few employers are willing to do this process except for the highest-skilled workers, and even then, only if they can get them an H-1B work visa first to allow workers to work while the process plays out.

But fewer than 1 in 5 can get a visa through the H-1B lottery anyway. Image
Even if employers win the H-1B lottery, no U.S. workers apply, and wait years, there is a backlog that is many times the annual cap.

Half the workers are from India, and thanks to the individual country caps, nearly all new Indian applicants will die without getting a green card Image
AS IMPORTANTLY, there’s no year-round, low-skilled guest worker visa *at all.*

Their employers have to go through a years-long process, hoping they get a worker and hoping that the worker stays with them when they get here.

Vanishingly few even try.
The U.S. historically had a much higher rate of legal immigration than it does now, and the U.S. ranks low compared to other wealthy countries for immigrants per capita.

We’d need over 75 million immigrants *tomorrow* to catch Australia.

The status quo has no justification. ImageImage
This is a very broad overview.

My new #CatoImmigration paper is a detailed explanation of the rules of U.S. legal immigration in as jargon-free language as possible. It is a resource for policymakers & the public seeking to understand the system better.
cato.org/policy-analysi…

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More from @David_J_Bier

Jan 21
SHOCKING but not shocking. As I predicted, Trump's birthright citizenship EO includes a Kamala Harris clause, specifically designed to deny the legitimacy of her US citizenship as the child of someone with a temporary status. This order jeopardizes the citizenship of millions... Image
of people in the United States. It purports to limit the damage by applying it only to future children but if they can get away with this blatantly unconstitutional action, they can strip anyone of their citizenship. The 14th amendment would be dead. This order is...
an attack on American tradition, the rule of law, the Constitution, and indeed Americans themselves. Given how blatantly unconstitutional and how dangerous it is to the rights and freedoms of Americans, it is obviously impeachable, if implemented whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…
Read 7 tweets
Jan 21
As I predicted, Trump has signed an order deprioritizing public safety threats for removal, requiring that DHS target anyone removable regardless of their security risk. This EO is a dangerous threat to the public, diverting resources away from critical security tasks. Image
But it's even worse! Trump's order requires the attorney general to prioritize misdemeanor criminal cases for illegal entry OVER the rest of its criminal workload: terrorism, fraud, trafficking, homicides, and other crimes just got bumped down. This is insanity. Image
It's important to remember that Trump used the pretext of enforcing illegal entry misdemeanors as a way to separate families and target immigrant children. whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…
Read 6 tweets
Jan 20
Trump Will Cut Legal Entries More Than Illegal Entries.
-Illegal immigration is low right now. He doesn't have much to cut. And look at what he did last time. Illegal immigration actually increased significantly by the end of his term in office. Image
Link to the whole piece: alexnowrasteh.com/p/trump-will-c…
It's not just arrests. It's evasions that are much lower than when Trump left office. He doesn't have much to add to border security. Image
Read 10 tweets
Jan 18
1/ Trump will lie about who he is deporting. Week 1, we expect a big televised series of arrests. We know that ICE was *already* planning to arrest the criminal targets of this raid. But Trump will also tell ICE to go ahead and arrest noncriminals in the area as well....
2/ Trump will sign an order Day 1 allowing ICE to arrest anyone without legal status. He will then slander everyone arrested as a criminal or gang member when, in reality, he will have deprioritize criminals and diverted resources away from serious threats.
3/ When sympathetic cases come to light, Trump's admin will lie about those people as well. Perla Morales-Luna lived without a criminal record for decades. Trump admin grabbed her in front of her 3 US citizen kids. In response to the outrage... Image
Read 11 tweets
Jan 16
Now that Biden is leaving office, I can give a full review of the evidence on the border crisis thanks to some new data. The prevailing narrative is wrong. Biden didn’t cut enforcement. Biden increased it. Biden Didn’t Cause the Border Crisis: The Definitive Case. Image
The data allow us to look at daily arrests by Border Patrol, revealing that from his first day in office, Biden was rapidly increasing Title 42 expulsions of border crossers. Yes, he canceled Remain in Mexico, but hardly anyone was being enrolled in it anyway. T42 was faster. Image
Read 31 tweets
Oct 30, 2024
Today Cato published a comprehensive assessment of Trump’s record toward noncitizen criminals. Partly using FOIA data, we find Trump released more criminals, oversaw a major increase in criminal entries, and deprioritized criminal arrests. cato.org/blog/trump-rel…
Trump demonizes immigrants as uniquely criminal, even though all the evidence we have from the Census Bureau and other sources, show that they are less likely to commit serious crimes. But was Trump focused on the minority who do commit crimes? Image
Trump’s first week in office he *personally* revoked Obama-era memos that prioritized the detention and removal of serious criminals. Hundreds of agents were reassigned to low-level enforcement work targeting visa overstays rather than terrorists or traffickers. Image
Image
Read 12 tweets

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