David J. Bier Profile picture
Jun 13, 2023 12 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Legal immigration is *impossible* for nearly all immigrants wishing to immigrate to the U.S. legally.

You can’t just “get in line.” That’s a fiction perpetuated by those who want to keep immigration illegal.

My latest report explains why. Here’s the summary in 1 pic... 🧵 Image
U.S. immigration law's basic premise is that all immigrants are *guilty* until proven innocent.

Immigration is ILLEGAL unless you prove you fall into a narrow eligible category.

The result is that over 99% of people who want to immigrate legally cannot do so.
No one outside the U.S. is eligible for a green card unless they fall into one of five narrow exceptions...
⬇️
First Option: America’s Refugee Program—Accepts about 1 in 5,000 displaced people around the world, and the percentage accepted keeps dropping year after year. Image
Second Option: The Diversity Lottery—Accepts fewer than 1 in 500 applicants.

Because the lottery excludes the top-origin countries for legal immigrants, a majority of the world’s population is ineligible to apply. Image
3rd Option: Family Sponsorship—Only available to the closest relatives of U.S. citizens & green card holders—and still has a backlog of nearly 7 million thanks to an annual cap of just 226,000.

Most new sponsors in most categories will *die* before their relatives can immigrate. Image
Fourth Option: Self-Sponsorship—Available only to
-those with “extraordinary ability,”
-people with advanced degrees or “exceptional ability” who also have projects of “national importance,” and
-$800K-$1M investors who create 10 jobs in 2 years.

Not viable for many Image
Fifth/Final Option: Employer Sponsorship—Made impossible by red tape and low caps.

The normal employer-sponsored applicant will suffer through this insane filing maze, which can take between 2 and 3 years of processing time and cost tens of thousands of dollars. Image
Very few employers are willing to do this process except for the highest-skilled workers, and even then, only if they can get them an H-1B work visa first to allow workers to work while the process plays out.

But fewer than 1 in 5 can get a visa through the H-1B lottery anyway. Image
Even if employers win the H-1B lottery, no U.S. workers apply, and wait years, there is a backlog that is many times the annual cap.

Half the workers are from India, and thanks to the individual country caps, nearly all new Indian applicants will die without getting a green card Image
AS IMPORTANTLY, there’s no year-round, low-skilled guest worker visa *at all.*

Their employers have to go through a years-long process, hoping they get a worker and hoping that the worker stays with them when they get here.

Vanishingly few even try.
The U.S. historically had a much higher rate of legal immigration than it does now, and the U.S. ranks low compared to other wealthy countries for immigrants per capita.

We’d need over 75 million immigrants *tomorrow* to catch Australia.

The status quo has no justification. ImageImage
This is a very broad overview.

My new #CatoImmigration paper is a detailed explanation of the rules of U.S. legal immigration in as jargon-free language as possible. It is a resource for policymakers & the public seeking to understand the system better.
cato.org/policy-analysi…

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More from @David_J_Bier

Mar 4
🚨Dealing a devastating blow to those who want to restart expulsions, Border Patrol Chief @USBPChief just reported numbers that confirm a dramatic 70% decline in gotaways, or successful evasions of Border Patrol, since Title 42 ended in May 2023. cato.org/blog/border-pa…
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Even when arrests rose back to Title 42 levels, the number of gotaways remained low. This is huge win for the Biden administration which took a massive political risk by ending Title 42. It should stick to its guns and not reverse course now. Image
The gotaway rate, the share of crossers who evade, has remained at the lowest sustained level on record. This is a remarkable accomplishment that @USBPChief and @AliMayorkas should be touting. They are building a more secure border.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 15
Does the US have "open borders"? In my new paper, I provide the 1st-ever look at total green card requests over time. Since 1922, every year, most applicants didn't receive green cards. In 2024, just 3% will receive a green card, down from 99% in 1890. cato.org/briefing-paper…
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Applicants are not being denied primarily because they are not qualified, but rather because the numerical caps don’t allow them to receive green cards. The caps haven’t been adjusted since 1990. Since 1996: way more requests, but no more green cards. Image
I dug through thousands of pages of little-noticed archival records from the State Department to put together this complete accounting for the immigration backlog, but this period was what infuriated me the most: this is how we got the Jews of Europe killed. Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 30
🧵OK, Mayorkas's impeachment: 1st 5 charges are Mayorkas not complying with various detention mandates, even though Congress has not funded this mandate and it would be unconstitutional detain everyone without feeding them. Even sleep deprivation conditions are unconstitutional:
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They say his enforcement priorities that are mandated by 6 U.S. Code § 202 are illegal and cite a 5th circuit decision from 2022 that was *reversed by the Supreme Court*.
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Oh, and guess what? Mayorkas in his first 2 years was less likely to release migrants than Trump's DHS secretaries were in his last 2 years, despite a massive increase in the flow. Charging Mayorkas over this is comical. cato.org/blog/new-data-…
Image
Read 13 tweets
Sep 18, 2023
Fareed Zakaria believes Biden can simply say: "You can't come in" and then people wouldn't be able to come in and they'd stop coming. He thinks that it's political insanity for Biden not to play this card. But the card doesn't exist... washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/…
Zakaria believes that most people are released **because of an asylum claim.** But this is easily disproven. Title 42 had outright banned asylum for 3 years, but people kept being released because of bottlenecks in the removal process. Now there's an asylum ban. Same thing!
If no one was ever released, would the total numbers entering detention fall? Certainly. But the number of people evading detection would rise (as it has during the Title 42/asylum ban era). Is that a politically useful answer to the problem? Doubtful.
Read 9 tweets
Aug 23, 2023
New US Sentencing Commission data show that 89% of convicted fentanyl traffickers in 2022 were U.S. citizens. The new data came out just as members of Congress were frantically whipping the public into a frenzy over the need to ban asylum to stop fentanyl cato.org/blog/us-citize…
Image
The new data are completely compatible with other data showing that 93% of fentanyl seizures occur at legal crossing points, where U.S. citizens are subject to the least scrutiny and have the right to enter whenever they want. Image
The government reported in July of this year that in 2021, it estimated that less than 3% of hard drugs are interdicted at ports of entry. This compares to an interdiction rate of more than 75% for illegal crossers. It's easier to get drugs undetected in than people! Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 31, 2023
The @CatoInstitute just launched : an interactive online platform to allow Americans to experience the difficulties of obtaining legal permanent residence in the U.S. from an immigrant’s perspective. See if you can win! #greencardgame https://t.co/GdrUNomrVKthegreencardgame.com
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Players start abroad and see if they can obtain a green card by answering the same questions & overcoming the same challenges as America's immigrants. If you have the right combination of luck and legal expertise, you might get a green card this century. Then try for citizenship! Image
The U.S. system depends an incredible amount on factors beyond an individual's control: luck, subjective reviews, birthplace, etc. Birthplace can matter more than a 100K job. A bureaucrat's interpretation > an exceptional career. That's why we let players pick their background Image
Read 5 tweets

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