David J. Bier Profile picture
Jun 13, 2023 12 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Legal immigration is *impossible* for nearly all immigrants wishing to immigrate to the U.S. legally.

You can’t just “get in line.” That’s a fiction perpetuated by those who want to keep immigration illegal.

My latest report explains why. Here’s the summary in 1 pic... 🧵 Image
U.S. immigration law's basic premise is that all immigrants are *guilty* until proven innocent.

Immigration is ILLEGAL unless you prove you fall into a narrow eligible category.

The result is that over 99% of people who want to immigrate legally cannot do so.
No one outside the U.S. is eligible for a green card unless they fall into one of five narrow exceptions...
⬇️
First Option: America’s Refugee Program—Accepts about 1 in 5,000 displaced people around the world, and the percentage accepted keeps dropping year after year. Image
Second Option: The Diversity Lottery—Accepts fewer than 1 in 500 applicants.

Because the lottery excludes the top-origin countries for legal immigrants, a majority of the world’s population is ineligible to apply. Image
3rd Option: Family Sponsorship—Only available to the closest relatives of U.S. citizens & green card holders—and still has a backlog of nearly 7 million thanks to an annual cap of just 226,000.

Most new sponsors in most categories will *die* before their relatives can immigrate. Image
Fourth Option: Self-Sponsorship—Available only to
-those with “extraordinary ability,”
-people with advanced degrees or “exceptional ability” who also have projects of “national importance,” and
-$800K-$1M investors who create 10 jobs in 2 years.

Not viable for many Image
Fifth/Final Option: Employer Sponsorship—Made impossible by red tape and low caps.

The normal employer-sponsored applicant will suffer through this insane filing maze, which can take between 2 and 3 years of processing time and cost tens of thousands of dollars. Image
Very few employers are willing to do this process except for the highest-skilled workers, and even then, only if they can get them an H-1B work visa first to allow workers to work while the process plays out.

But fewer than 1 in 5 can get a visa through the H-1B lottery anyway. Image
Even if employers win the H-1B lottery, no U.S. workers apply, and wait years, there is a backlog that is many times the annual cap.

Half the workers are from India, and thanks to the individual country caps, nearly all new Indian applicants will die without getting a green card Image
AS IMPORTANTLY, there’s no year-round, low-skilled guest worker visa *at all.*

Their employers have to go through a years-long process, hoping they get a worker and hoping that the worker stays with them when they get here.

Vanishingly few even try.
The U.S. historically had a much higher rate of legal immigration than it does now, and the U.S. ranks low compared to other wealthy countries for immigrants per capita.

We’d need over 75 million immigrants *tomorrow* to catch Australia.

The status quo has no justification. ImageImage
This is a very broad overview.

My new #CatoImmigration paper is a detailed explanation of the rules of U.S. legal immigration in as jargon-free language as possible. It is a resource for policymakers & the public seeking to understand the system better.
cato.org/policy-analysi…

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More from @David_J_Bier

Feb 3
Today @CatoInstitute published our report providing the first look at the fiscal effects of the wave of legal & illegal immigration over the last 3 decades. It shows immigrants created surpluses every year, by a combined $14.5 trillion, even as deficits grew Image
Our report covers all spending, federal, state, and local, updating the work of the National Academies' 2017 report. You can read my summary: cato.org/blog/cato-stud…
Or the full study: cato.org/white-paper/im…
How can new people cut the deficit? First, a significant portion of spending is "pure public goods," military & interest payments on old debt, that don't increase b/c of immigrants. This means the average new person is paying more in taxes than they receive in benefits... Image
Read 11 tweets
Jan 21
Another judge describes how ICE intentionally brake checks ICE observers trying to cause accidents. If the observers can't stop in time, it can then label them "domestic terrorists" who "weaponized their vehicles," which is of course justification for killing them. Image
Here's an agent admitting on camera to this behavior:
Here's a federal judge describing this behavior in a case in Chicago:
Read 4 tweets
Jan 2
In 2025, @AlexNowrasteh and @CatoInstitute published an enormous amount of original immigration research. My analysis of border crossings under Biden is the most comprehensive explanation for why Biden's lack of enforcement didn't cause the crisis: alexnowrasteh.com/p/biden-didnt-…
In my 1st Trump 2.0 post, I predicted that Trump would cut legal entries more than illegal entries, which has already been proven indisputably correct. cato.org/blog/trump-wil…
@AlexNowrasteh published the only paper analyzing the monetary amount of welfare received by immigration status, finding that immigrants received in 2022 21 percent less welfare per capita than the US-born population cato.org/briefing-paper…
Read 20 tweets
Dec 22, 2025
ICE agents illegally break into a woman's bathroom in a NY nutrition bar manufacturing plant. "Pull up your pants," says a male agent. The agents only had a warrant to review employer documents. They didn't have a warrant to search for, detain, or arrest anyone there.
Agents illegally detained dozens of US citizens and demanded that they prove their citizenship. We need to defend our private property rights against trespassing government agents.
Utterly lawless: "Agents lined up Latino workers and released people they said were U.S. citizens. They questioned and detained 57 people, including people who said only that they wanted a lawyer." syracuse.com/news/2025/11/w…
Read 4 tweets
Dec 15, 2025
On Dec. 4, DOJ labeled people who impede or "dox" ICE agents "domestic terrorists." I document how DHS believes following, recording, and protesting agents is "impeding," and has a policy of threatening & arresting ICE observers. That's unconstitutional. A thread of threats...🧵 Image
The Constitution guarantees your right to follow, record, protest, and notify others about the agents and what you see. These are core First Amendment rights, and DHS has clearly ordered its agents to threaten and violate those rights. cato.org/blog/dhs-polic…Image
DHS agents have:
1) a policy of threatening to arrest ICE observers;
2) a policy of permitting the brandishing of weapons against ICE observers;
3) a policy of arresting ICE observers for honking; and
4) a policy of crashing into drivers who follow them.
Read 50 tweets

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