Thread by @micahddrew

Day 2 of the Held v. Montama trial is about to begin in Helena. Today we will here from five witnesses from the plaintiffs: Dr. Cathy Whitlock, Dr. Lori Byron, and Dr. Dan Fagre, and youth plaintiffs Mica Kantor and Badge Busse. #mtclimatecase #mtpol #mtnews

I wrote profiles on Mica and Badge and why they ended up as plaintiffs in this lawsuit. Read them here: mtclimatecase.flatheadbeacon.com/running-toward…

mtclimatecase.flatheadbeacon.com/for-the-busse-…

Starting with Dr. Cathy Whitlock, who co-authored an expert report with Dr. Steven Running, whom we heard from yesterday, about the climate change and specifically the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on climate change in Montana.

She'll be covering trends and projections in temp, precip and snow accumulation/melt in Montana, the effect of climate change on ecosystems, communities and people's livelihoods, and what will happen in Montana's future if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue.

Whitlock's CV is displayed, also scientifically impressive. Of note: she got her B.A. from Colorado College, the same school plaintiff Rikki Held just graduated from. Whitlock was also a professor at Montana State University and founded the Montana Institute on Ecosystems.

Whitlock was the lead author on the 2017 MT climate assessment; served on the 2020 governor's council developing the MTClimate Solutions Plan... and others. Lots of work in this field. Phil Gregory is the plaintiffs' lawyer who will lead Whitlock through her testimony

Defense objects to 4 reports Whitlock helped author, claiming hearsay for not meeting the exception for public records; and claiming relevance for the current scope of the trial re: a MEPA statute that's been in effect for 30 days, whereas the reports are several years older.

Judge Seeley overrules the objections by the state.

The expectation from legal observers is that we'll see a healthy number of objections, especially from the defense, in order to preserve their right to appeal. Attorneys for the plaintiffs have said they expect the ruling will be appealed to the MT Supreme Court immediately

Talking about the 2007 Montana Climate Action Plan — can be seen here, case you have even more time on your hands and want to read 93 pages of climate action plan.
deq.mt.gov/Files/DEQAdmin…

"Recognizing the profound consequences that global warming could have on the economy, environment, and quality of life in MT, Governor Brian Schweitzer" directed MT Department of Environmental Quality to establish a Climate Change Advisory Committee — which led to said '07 plan

The Defense made a standing objection for leading the witness — a lot of slides being shown have specific highlighted sentences for Whitlock to respond to/discuss. Overruled by Seeley.

Currently getting our overview of Montana's climate regions and the difference between land west and east of the continental divide. — more arid in the east, more temperate and moist to the west.

Overall, MT average temps have trended upwards ~ .2 degrees F/decade since 1900

"Montana is warming at a little bit faster rate than the rest of the contiguous U.S," Whitlock says, due to high elevation, northern latitude and distance from the ocean.

The 2017 MT climate assessment notes that statewide warming has increased more in recent decades — close to .3-.4 degrees F/decade.
This chart from the report breaks it down by region.

"weather determines what you reach for in your closet and what you wear that day. that's weather. Climate on the other hand is the average of weather... if you think of what you wear as the weather, the climate is all the clothes in your closet" ~ Whitlock

"Montana is getting warmer, and the rate of warming is increasing."

Compared to the national average, Montana has warmed to a greater extent across all seasons (= in spring) with the greatest temperature increases seen during the winter.

Now we're into acronym land.
RCPs — representative concentration pathways are
“plausible scenarios of what CO2 concentration will be like in the future.”
These are used for future climate modeling. RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.6 are a high and intermediate GHG emission scenario

Under these two climate scenarios, temperatures in Montana are projected to warm roughly 9.8 and 5.6 degrees respectively by mid-late century.

Whitlock adds that under the extreme scenarios, parts of MT are likely to see months on end of 90+ degree days.

Across the board, circling back to the youth plaintiffs, Whitlock says all will experience significantly more days over 90 degrees — between 30 and 55 more  — and fewer days below freezing in the future.

Shifting now from temperatures to precipitation — Whitlock says historically there have been no changes in annual precipitation trends over the years. Instead, she says the season of precipitation has changed – winter/summer is drier, spring/fall are wetter

Onto Montana's declining snowpack — across all elevations, across the entire state. Whitlock also shares graphs indicated the elevation of snow is increasing across the region —climbing from ~7,000 feet in the Greater Yellowstone Area up to 9500 feet by 2100

It's a really cool chart. Elevation on the left, the X-axis is the years 1980-2100. Color coded by precipitation type: snow (blue) rain (green) and a mixture/slush (orange/red)
@pbump

@pbump More testimony from Whitlock after a brief break, now onto understanding drought and the % of Montana categorized in a drought condition since the turn of the century

@pbump Whitlock says she expects more seasonal droughts in the future. Also draws the line between the 2017 drought and the 2017 wildfire season which burned 4.8 million acres and cost $2.6 billion in agricultural loss

@pbump "The entire state has seen an increase in the number of days where we could get large wildfires.”

Gregory is specifically asking Whitlock to relate the changes to Montana's climate/snowpack/stream/fires directly to the experiences of the plaintiffs and their future

She's now talking about "Smoke Wave Intensity," a slightly ominous sounding phrase. A smoke wave is defined as 2+ consecutive days with high wildfire-specific particulate matter. Projections show increasing propensity for smoke waves, and increased density, in the future

An objection by the defense about Whitlock tying climate projections to the plaintiffs future is overruled, but the defense table is starting to look rather pleased — didn't see that yesterday.

Whitlock says there are some upsides to the warmer climate in the agricultural sector- longer growing season, new crops can be grown like cantaloupe; but overall she says the negative outweigh the positives

We're now looking at the rebuttal report that Whitlock wrote to counter State expert Dr. Judith Curry, known for doubting the scientific consensus of human-caused climate change. Whitlock is countering several points Curry made, saying the data is "cherry picked"

Asked whether the climate change harms in MT should be considered in the fossil fuel permitting process, Whitlock says, "yes, certainly."

Summing up the plaintiffs side, Whitlock says "There’s a real urgency—that’s the opinion at the international level, the national level, the state level. The climate science is clear there’s an urgent problem."

She adds that "MT’s actions to promote the utilization and development of fossil fuels are inconsistent with the need to reduce emissions to stabilize the climate system."

On to cross by Thane Johnson for the state.
he says he "loves me some Ag" and is excited to dive into the agricultural industry re: emissions.

He's querying Whitlock about her knowledge about EV tractors and charging EV's on a farm, saying to lower GHG emissions, all sectors need to decarbonize, including Ag and transportation. "you'd agree with me that ALL areas need to do their part,"

Johnson is doing down a line of questioning re: the size of Montana and the need for transportation around the state. Also asks about the lack of EV charging stations along areas such as the Hi-line.

Johnson is trying to introduce some basic information — census data of Montana's population. He handed the judge a typed up doc misstating the world pop as 7.9 million, not billion.
Judge Seeley says she can't take judicial notice (accept to evidence) an unverified document

In a line asking about this year's precipitation and possible drought in the NW of the state, Johnson says "Would it surprise you that I was skiing on the last day of April in Essex and rafting the same day?”

Mr. Johnson is mixing up a lot of acronyms. Can't fault that really, there's a lot to keep track of. RPC, IPCC, SSP. My editors have probably caught a few mistakes there

Now he's offering up a visual aid, on a poster? withdrawn as Johnson can't say which expert report it's from

Johnson is referencing Whitlocks deposition now. Cumulatively depositions in this case I believe take up in excess of 700 pages. At least.

Judge Seeley tells Johnson he needs to settle down.

Here's one table of exhibit binders for this case.

Lunch break. back at it later.

Starting up with the next plaintiff witness, Mica K.

(For the record, I would like to officially object to the spelling of his name)

Also, this is a weird line of questioning to listen to... I could also answer most of these... very specifically... about the Trifecta... and the Missoula half marathon... and my goals for the race in 2 weeks... Need to disassociate from my name for an hour.

Mica says he first learned about climate change when he was 4 and watched the film Chasing Ice, and wrote a letter to @SenatorTester when he was very young. He's been long involved in climate activism and protests, including Fridays for the Future rallies @FFFUnitedStates

@SenatorTester @FFFUnitedStates Mica says he can't remember a summer when there wasn't any wildfire smoke.

@SenatorTester @FFFUnitedStates During COVID, Mica had to quarantine in his basement when his family was sick and was prevented from going outside due to the smoky conditions. He wrote a poem at the time about how he felt.

@SenatorTester @FFFUnitedStates "I just found out that pandemics are more likely to occur with a changing climate. And now I can't even go outside to play because another fire started near my home. It wasn't the first time and it won't be the last. According to the experts...."

@SenatorTester @FFFUnitedStates "...the smoke from the forest fires makes our air too toxic to breathe & the fires will only get worse. Yet the climate crisis is only getting started. I'm a prisoner in my own home. Alone and wondering. What is my future? Is there one? Why is no one listening? Do they not care?”

@SenatorTester @FFFUnitedStates That's all for Mica. Now on to Dr. Dan Fagre, a retired USGS researcher who helmed that Repeat Photography Project documenting the changing glaciers in Glacier National Park.

@SenatorTester @FFFUnitedStates We'll be going into a lot of glaciology, climate science in Glacier National Park, the impacts of the loss of glaciers, etc.

Again, great film on Glacier's glaciers here. thenorthface.com/en-us/approach…

@SenatorTester @FFFUnitedStates Fagre spent ~30 years working in Glacier National Park as a climate change research coordinator and ecologist.

@SenatorTester @FFFUnitedStates Fun fact about the glaciers in Glacier National Park — you can link all of them by foot over roughly 150 miles, 50,000 vertical feet and 12 days. If you're an ultrarunner like Mike Foote, or Jennifer Lichter. Is this a shameless plug for people to watch Shining Mountains? Yes.

@SenatorTester @FFFUnitedStates Fagre describes glaciers as a "physical manifestation of climate change laying on the landscape... they just sit there and respond to temperature and precipitation."

@SenatorTester @FFFUnitedStates And also pick up a copy of Flathead Living Magazine, on stands in Northwest Montana soon, to read more and see some of Steven Gnam's amazing photography of said glaciers.

@SenatorTester @FFFUnitedStates The Repeat Photography Project can be viewed here: usgs.gov/centers/norock…

It's pretty interesting to look through them. Also very impactful to see the decline in glacial ice. Several of these photos are admitted as exhibits, so take a look at the USGS site

@SenatorTester @FFFUnitedStates Glacier National Park has become a thread throughout the two days of trial so far — Fagre calls it "inspirational," yesterday Mae Nan Ellingson talked about her honeymoon there, several plaintiffs have talked about visiting and hiking around the park.

@SenatorTester @FFFUnitedStates Talking about glaciers as freshwater reservoirs, Fagre said the equivalent of 2,420 olympic sized swimming pools has melted off Sperry Glacier between 2005-2022. ~85% of freshwater used by Montanans comes from similar mountain systems.

@SenatorTester @FFFUnitedStates Current discussion about lateral and end moraines are really taking me back to 9th grade Earth Science. Fagre used moraines (debris left behind by retreating glaciers) to map their former extent. He mapped 146 historic glaciers in the Park.

@SenatorTester @FFFUnitedStates An aside — did you know that Idaho has one (1) named glacier? I wrote about it here : issuu.com/idahome/docs/i…

I didn't speak with Dr. Fagre about it, but the researcher I did speak to had some doubts about its status due to size & ice flow, which Fagre is speaking of.

Fagre says glacial melt rates have accelerated in recent decades, with remaining glacier losing almost 1% a year. Had they melted at that rate starting in the 1850s, "we would have lost the a long time ago."

Alrighty. Now testifying is plaintiff Badge Busse of Kalispell. Named after the Badger-Two Medicine area south of Glacier Park.

I'm watching now from the theater across the street from the courthouse. It's a chill vibe. They have popcorn.

He's describing having to prepare for evacuation when a wildfire got very close to his house.

"just knowing i might not have that place to come home to the next morning was terrifying."

Badge is describing the importance of hunting to his family. The Busse's try to never buy any meat, and instead get their own. As any good Montana hunter, Badge will not give up his favorite hunting spot.

Onto another expert, Lori Byron.
State objects to Byron having notes with her to refresh her memory, overruled by Judge Seeley.

Dr. Byron will be testifying to the plaintiff's physical and mental health.

Byron extensively discussing the physiological differences between kids and adults, with kids more susceptible to pollution, heat, and infections;