Thread by @thiccythot_

BNB perp books are where max level players are pvping rn

my thots on some of the trading dynamics

1/

completely baseless speculation:

litany of fines + criminal charges will be possibly crippling for nance

big red coming when/if it happens

2/

but shorting perps outright very difficult, you are literally pvping one of the smartest and richest entities in crypto

from here the path is treacherous and the timing unknown

3/

nance is making it quite expensive to short by jacking funding negative and making BNB hard to borrow over the next 25 days with the Maverick launchpool

a tactical game of attrition

4/

every case update will likely result in candles, as market participants rapidly adjust their perception of fair value off of every little additional piece of info

5/

interestingly, the most recent SEC case had BNB price lead majors

unfortunately, it feels like a large portion of the price action in majors will be dictated by BNB in the coming weeks

6/

partially because the casino has become such a large part of what crypto is, but also because nance holds a large portion of spot that may need to get sold to address the result of the case

7/

I am hoping for the best but preparing for the worst

people have been saying that "if binance goes down, it's all over" but I disagree

it'll probably set it back a year or two, but the casino is just an means to an end

8/

Sorry that the last part was rushed, accidentally hit send on the first 4 tweets before I could finish my thoughts

happy to discuss anything that you may disagree with

9/

some additional pieces of info:

the 220 liquidation is a nothingburger, the team will either pay 147m for the bnb or stick venus with bad debt

it's probably more important as a psychological level than anything mechanical

10/