Thread by @donyatesnba

This is the start of my 2023 board thread!

TIER 1 - ALL-TIME PROSPECT: MEDIAN OUTCOME TWO-WAY SUPERSTAR+

1. Victor Wembanyama

Off Role: Diver+Possible Gravity Bending Floor Spacer Big

Def Role: Rim Protector+Team/Awareness+Space Big

In my time doing draft analysis, I have had the pleasure of anointing one all-time great prospect already in 2018, and one more in 2019 albeit with low-conviction.

I do strongly believe that a 19-year old who was the best player on offense and on defense in a top-five(ish) league in the world is the best center prospect in at least nearly two decades.

He has an 8-foot wingspan and shoots threes for fuck's sake.

This is what they've always said the future of basketball could look like.

Wembanyama is Him. He slides his feet like a pro against former college standout guards, all of whom have grown plenty since their time as 21 year olds helping their team win tournament games.

He projects as a super DUPER sized Jaren Jackson Jr., with potentially better offensive skills coming into the draft.

There really is no limit to how good he could be on defense; how good is too good to imagine? Why couldn't he reinvent what is possible on the defensive end?

A reasonable answer may be that nobody has ever had a 10-foot standing reach in the NBA with fluidity, feel and a jumpshot, so he could grow into being an offensive load bearer in lieu of reinventing NBA defense ... or maybe he could do both.

It could be said that Hakeem Olajuwon was able to bear the load of being the most unstoppable offensive player in the league at times (namely, while Jordan was suspended) while also being the pre-21st century defensive GOAT.

Point is: that boy Victor good.

TIER 2 - MEDIAN OUTCOME SOLID TWO-WAY STARTER, CLEAR PATH TO TWO-WAY STAR+ UPSIDE

2. Jarace Walker

Off Role: Playmaker+Diver+Possible Floor Spacer Tweener

Def Role: Space+Team/Awareness Tweener

Jarace is a tough cookie to nail down.

On one hand, he was a key two-way contributor for a team that was both a top-five offense & a top-five defense per KenPom, a feat that hadn't been accomplished since 2019 (Virginia).

On the other hand, he's a tweener prospect who made his living from the mid range in college.

But 19-year old wings don't typically block about three shots per 100 possessions (sometimes to his detriment, as he gambled and got beat plenty too), and 19-year old bigs don't typically shoot over six threes and compile over two steals per 100...

and neither crop typically holds an ast%/tov% ratio over 1, especially with decent usage.

The best statistical comps among underclassmen bring up a variety of old flames and some NBA stars: Dedric Lawson, Anunoby, Horford, JButler, Brandon Clarke, Gary Clark, Draymond and Kawhi.

Who's to say that if Lawson had elite ATHL (No-Step & Max Vert for Walker were both +8" more than Lawson) or Clarke had 6" more of wingspan in a bulky frame (+40 lbs of weight, same No Step Vert) and they came out at age 19 that they wouldn't have been superduperstars?

Because Jarace could clearly be that. He is a good team defender who loves creating events on that end. On all jumpshots, he also shot over 38%. Poor FT%, but not a huge concern for player with his profile.

At IMG Academy, he was relied upon to initiate offense, and showed those elite connective passing instincts every time he was afforded the opportunity at Houston too.

Think there's plenty of room to grow for this near-class best athlete with great feel and IQ.

Young efficient two-way swiss army knife prospects like this certainly don't always work out, but when they also will immediately step into the NBA as one of the most athletic total packages in the league... they've been named Kawhi Leonard. ;)

3. Cam Whitmore

Off Role: Self-Creator+Floor Spacer Wing

Def Role: Versatile+Team/Awareness Wing

While another top prospect who will likely go ahead of Cam projects very similarly to Jayson Tatum, Cam Whitmore looks a fair bit like the other Celtics star wing when he was coming out of Cal, if a bit better across the board.

For better or worse, Whitmore's flaws at a glance look about the same across the board as Jaylen's did:

-Lack of passing instincts
-Bad AST/TOV ratio, so often a potential death knell
-Possibly bad 3P translation due to middling FT%/2ptJ%

But everything else in the profile is extremely bright green, especially when compared to Brown:
-Will still be 18 when drafted, while JB turned 20 before his first NBA minute
-Nearly double JB's steal rate, better rebound rate
(cont)

-17 unassisted 3Ps (good for 46% of his total 3s) compared to JB's paltry 4 (13% of his total)
-Shot 40% on catch-and-shoot 3s compared to 31% for JB

They were both super low volume taking shots from 4 to 20 feet in college, which is fun to project forward!

I'd probably rather Whitmore stay closer to his 88% rim/threes than the sub-60% rim/threes mark that Brown has developed into the last couple years in the NBA.

Another comp and potential outcome that comes to mind for Whitmore is fellow Villanova alum Mikal Bridges.

Mikal was over a full year older when he first logged minutes for Nova, and he was asked to do much much less, but showed very similar green flags to Whitmore.

If Cam were to develop into a similar lethally efficient rim/threes killer and marginally less of a savant on D,

that's still a win at the top of the draft, albeit not a franchise changer.

Whitmore is the best athlete in the draft, at least among prospects who weren't coddled and hidden away behind high school competition.

Whitmore is 6'7" and nearing 240 lbs as an 18 year old with Zach LaVine type ups plus so much functional power.

You can't help but think about Kawhi Leonard type power ATHL upside with Whitmore. I wish he got to the free throw line more in college, to support this hypothesis.

It would make it so much easier to project him to develop like Jaylen, DeMar, etc if he got FTAs in bunches at age 18, but he's so young and so good at other stuff already that it's not a death knell by any means whatsoever.

Villanova was bottom of the barrel in transition, preferring to slow down the pace and not take the easy points despite having a Lamborghini in the driveway (Cam was a top transition scorer in the EYBL).

Cam did flash serious self-creation upside in the half court.

Villanova ran more than a handful of plays to get him the ball on the perimeter and going downhill toward the basket, and when defenders would sag, he was also confident letting it fly off-the-dribble after a sizeup or stepback.

They ran pick-and-rolls with him handling the ball every so often, and his decision-making wasn't always the best. There's no denying he is responsible for his 6% assist rate.

With Whitmore's ability to dribble, shoot and slash, you have to hope that his initiation IQ and feel grows as it would for so many 18 year old elite athlete wings before him.

He started the year with a thumb injury to his shooting hand, which may have negatively impacted his shooting, but he overcame it and let his game do the talking.

He maintained very respectable steal and rebound rates, which assuage any worries about his dinosaur arms.

He confidently projects to defend 1-4 well, with some upside to be a star on that end.

Whitmore is one of my favorite players in the draft and should go down as an extremely confident top-five pick in any given draft.

To pass on him for a non-elite athlete point guard who can't space the floor or defend or a 19yo non-world beating high schooler would be a laughable embarrassment that has become ever so predictable year after year in the NBA.

4. Cason Wallace

Off Role: Primary Initiator Guard

Def Role: Point of Attack+Versatile Guard

Stop me if you've heard this before. Top RSCI guard goes to Kentucky and is obviously intriguing but ultimately under-utilized.

Wallace's sell is pretty straightforward. He's an elite point of attack defender with a strong steal rate to back it up, and he's not far behind the eight-ball in any one area on offense—

Cason is a willing and capable shooter from deep off the dribble or catch, a willing and capable off-the-dribble mid-range scorer and mostly a good, intelligent passer, ball-handler and decision-maker.

The Kentucky guard effect has suppressed the advanced stat profiles of so many future NBA 1's and 2's, from Devin Booker to Jamal Murray to De'Aaron Fox to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, not to mention guys like Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley, and many more in between them all.

Wallace's output looks closest to SGA's (albeit with slightly weaker 3P and FT percentages), among previous Kentucky guards. Both of their turnover percentages buoyed, both were killers at the rim and from mid-range with good passing profiles and great defensive profiles.

I'm not suggesting Wallace is a future MVP candidate of course. But a 75th percentile outcome adjacent to Jrue Holiday, Fred VanVleet or Kyle Lowry should come as a surprise to absolutely nobody.

Easy ranking.

Give it a chance.

5. Leonard Miller

Off Role: Playmaker+Diver+Possible Floor Spacer Tweener

Def Role: Versatile+Team/Awareness Tweener

Just like we all drew it up: Leonard Miller the top ranked prospect to come out of G-League Ignite.

It seems contrarian on its face, but Miller turned 19 the first month of the season, and played professionally against an average age of 25 where every other team is filled to the brim with former college stars and star role players—and, quite often, NBA players.

And statistically, Miller looks like age 19 Kawhi Leonard playing against the Mountain West. More efficient across all three scoring venues, less assists, more blocks, less steals.

Look, it's a 6'10"/7'2" kid with elite effort stats & great efficiency on high usage against professional players as a teen. He has a very tight handle (played PG until a year ago) and really great feel, and there's no telling what he could become with years of NBA development.

People like saying he could be an Andrew Wiggins or Kevon Looney type, two off-ball role players for Golden State, but those guys' stats weren't even approaching Miller's level as teenagers, and they were playing against the Pac-12 and Big 12! I hope people understand.

The three point shot is so so broken. It looks like Tony Wroten's: zero legs, all elbow push, super flat arc.

He shot about 80% from free throw, so, who knows how his shot comes along. If Miller ends up in Oklahoma City with one Chip Engelland... it could be over for the league.

In complete seriousness, I don't think he needs a shot to succeed as so many would suggest. He plays so much stronger than his weight that he'll probably be an elite role playing small big in the next 2-3 years. Would be ideal next to a floor spacing or offensive engine center.

Don't hate me.

6. Sidy Cissoko

Off Role: Secondary Initiator+Possible Floor Spacer Wing

Def Role: Versatile+Team/Awareness Wing

Cissoko at 6'7" is both one of the best live-ball playmakers and one of the best wing defenders right now.

Cissoko is what people wish Anthony Black and Ausar Thompson were, while being 15 months younger than the latter and being far more efficient across the board than the former despite playing against (you can skip ahead if you know what comes next) FAR, FAR better competition.

His three point shot has a big dip in it, and proved ineffective toward the end of the season, but unlike Ignite teammate Leonard Miller, it likely doesn't need a total rework.

He doesn't have a strong free throw percentage to back it up, but he's so young and so skilled that anything should be considered possible. A simple tweak or two and Cissoko could be a two-way star in the blink of an eye.

TIER 3 - MEDIAN OUTCOME GOOD ONE-WAY STARTER, CLEAR PATH TO STAR+ UPSIDE

7. Brandon Miller

Off Role: Gravity Bending Floor Spacer+Possible Playmaker Wing

Def Role: Team/Awareness+Possible Versatile Wing

Brandon Miller is one of the best three-point shooting prospects in the class while being a 6'9" wing who positively impacted his college team's defense and has statistical green flags surrounding his feel and effort levels.

He only took 16% of his shots from 4 to 20 feet, which I personally love to see. His AST% is higher than his TOV%, which is so often the downfall of underclassman college wings. He's no slouch on the offensive or defensive glass.

His steals were lacking, but he blocked 32 shots, good enough for me to think he'll give a fuck on that end in the NBA.

Miller comps pretty closely to Jayson Tatum coming out of Duke, albeit at a whole year and a half older.

I think it's probably fair to say Miller has some unforeseen creation upside, as his ast/tov numbers were more impressive than Tatum's and he likely will be given the same ample opportunity to develop... but, again, he's not nearly as young as JT was.

In all, Miller is a pretty stock standard top-three selection. Charlotte would be doing just fine to keep it simple and take Brandon Miller, if missing the boat on some of the actual best upside in the class.

8. Brandin Podziemski

Off Role: Secondary Initiator+Possible Gravity Bending Floor Spacer Guard

Def Role: Team/Awareness Big Guard

Podziemski is not rated quite this highly by anyone as far as I can tell. Which is nuts!

I know this 6'5" white kid with a wingspan that barely matches his height and who was the WCC POY isn't who you expect to be ranked ahead of, among others, Scoot Henderson. But you should hear me out.

Podziemski started playing basketball at age 14, and just finished his sixth full year of organized ball at age 20 (younger than Brandon Miller & the Thompson twins...), having taken the reigns at Santa Clara from 2022 lottery pick and budding two-way star Jalen Williams.

Despite being a year younger than Jalen was, Podz posted a much better BPM and piloted the Broncos through a tougher strength of schedule in 2023 and managed to improve the team's record despite losing Williams in addition to two fifth-year senior starters over the offseason.

Every preseason prediction piece you can find about the WCC has Santa Clara falling way down the rankings, and they outclassed everybody but the two powerhouses of the conference yet again. I wonder why.

(Podz is special.)

He has an extremely short list of players who hit anywhere close to his intersection of advanced stats, much of it correlating with NBA success. His overlap of rebounding prowess on both sides (oreb% traditionally being a huge marker of potential in guard/wing prospects), —

the ability to generate steals (another one) and assists without many turnovers (ding) while handling a high usage rate (ding) and scoring very efficiently via multiple avenues with a difficult shot diet (ding). . . again, Podz is special.

It makes perfect sense that he surprisingly posted a 39" max vert and looked like maybe the best player at the combine. (Using ATHL or things like combine game performance is fine when they are just reinforcing what stats already tell us IMO.)

I really cannot help but see a prospect archetype that has classically been overlooked and slapped with the "NBA-ready skills but lacking in true upside" tag that has been bestowed upon so many future multiple-time MVPs, DPOYs and champions over the last 30 years.

Simply put, Podziemski seems to be a winner who is ready to continue his exponential improvement in the NBA. I can't wait to see what form it ends up taking.

9. Dereck Lively

Off Role: Diver+Possible Playmaker Big

Def Role: Rim Protector+Team/Awareness Big

Lively was an extraordinarily low usage player in college for a top recruit.

He was billed as a willing and capable shooter and finisher as well as a defensive savant, the latter two of which he certainly delivered on. (Hopefully the shot comes along eventually. Workout reports are positive, but I don't think that's worth anything.)

The big beaming green flag for me (besides 7'1"/7'7" of course) is that Lively gathered 3.2 assists per 100 possessions to just 2 turnovers. For a player who didn't turn 19 till conference play began, and who compiled the stocks numbers that he did, that is so huge!

I ranked Mo Bamba #4 in 2018 for his youth, dazzling block and rebound numbers, solid steal numbers and his similarly ridiculous frame, but I should have cared more about his 0.33 ast/tov ratio, and the fact that he hardly passed at all (1 ast per 100).

Lively's passing numbers in addition to the other strengths (8.7 stocks per 100, 12 oreb%) put him in elite company among underclassmen.

When you qualify out small-school tweeners from the query, you're left with three wildly different players who match or come close to Lively's intersection of strengths: Joel Embiid, Karl Anthony-Towns and Gorgui Dieng.

I'm not suggesting Lively could even come close to the all-time great offensive production that Embiid & KAT have put up since entering the NBA. But if he is a great connective passer, a just-fine rim runner and finisher and a near-unlimited upside defender, he could be so good.

10. Scoot Henderson

Off Role: Primary Initiator Guard

Def Role: Point of Attack Guard

I had to slot him on this bitch somewhere.

Scoot is not an elite defensive prospect, getting caught ball-watching far too often as the vast majority of young lead initiators are wont to do on that end.

Scoot is also not an overly promising three-point shooting prospect, sporting a mid free throw percentage, mid three point volume and bad percentage.

For these reasons, my natural comparison for him was another No. 1 RSCI recruit with very similar frame and at-a-glance strengths/weaknesses columns who also bypassed college and instead played professionally... in China.

Emmanuel Mudiay got to the league and immediately revealed that his elite burst and deceleration, his "man's strength," his IQ and his slashing abilities were all horribly overblown. He developed early and bully balled the AAU circuit into being named the No. 1 recruit.

These were my worst fears about Scoot, and as someone who enjoyed dreaming on Mudiay's upside—plus, I mean, being the #1 recruit has got to count for something, right?—I feared others were falling for the Mudiay trap all over again.

Take a second and read these and compare some of the intangibles, toughness anecdotes to what they say about Scoot. (And of course, glean that they have very similar profiles.) It's almost harrowing. Don't worry, there's some positivity at the end of this.

Another top PG recruit whom Scoot's hype brings to mind is Dennis Smith Jr. People said the exact same shit bar-for-BAR when talking about his comparable players, a lovechild of Chris Paul and [one of Russell Westbrook/Derrick Rose/John Wall].

Absolutely insane to think about now, as DSJ has become a middling backup PG whose calling card is defensive playmaking. But once upon a time, people wrote that he was Chris Paul plus elite speed, bunnies and killer instinct, all in one.

However, Scoot's tape is against competition we mostly understand unlike Mudiay's, and he seems to have an intersection of enough really interesting strengths and intangibles to really turn this thing out.

What he has developed in the absence of elite burst and perimeter scoring, being faced against much tougher competition than his age peers, is absolutely elite mid-range scoring (99th %ile!) alongside great feel, vision and passing ability if he senses any weak points.

There is some hope that Scoot takes his elite shooting skill from inside of 18 or so feet and continues expanding out beyond 23 feet. Maybe it comes to fruition, maybe it doesn't. Who's to say.

The one obvious NBA comparison for him, at least offensively, is Dejounte Murray. Scoot is a little shorter but a good bit stouter, and he is much more polished at age 19 than the proverbial ball of clay that Murray was at Washington.

But Murray came into the league as an athletic and underrated mid-range merchant, and to this day is taking over half his shots there with consistently elite efficiency. The three-point shooting hasn't come around so well, but he's not a sieve there.

So it's no lost cause!

If we look up seven years from now and Scoot has hit his projectable upside outcome and is a good bit better than Dejounte has been offensively (not a hard sell given Murray's well below-average TS% to this point), while still not being a plus defender, is that a disappointment?

I wouldn't think so. That player is probably at least a multi-time all-star. But if we assume unpredictable development, unjust world full of chaos, etc., and Scoot lands somewhere between those outcomes —

Mudiay, out of the league, DSJ, a middling rotation piece, Murray, a two-way star with efficiency issues, and fuck it, Chris Paul, the stans' most consistent comparable, a first-ballot hall of famer, that's how we can arrive at "median outcome solid one-way starter."

Obviously the Scoot hive will pan this ranking. People get stuck in their ways, and their special boy simply must be a top selection and top prospect and star in the league.

I've been present in the draft community quite a while and remember the vicious reactions from people when I placed Jabari Parker and Jahlil Okafor three slots higher than this—No. 7 overall each.

I stand by ranking them that high. Those players had star-level upside outcomes too. But at the end of the day, they were non-defending non-shooting prospects who needed high usage to succeed and whose primary mode of scoring was inefficient.

In all on Scoot — he's clearly got some elite strengths and is a hard working kid who wants to be good and win. He didn't completely suck playing against professionals as a teenager. That's a really terrific start.

No. 10 is a great ranking in this strong class!

11. Gradey Dick

Off Role: Possible Gravity Bending Floor Spacer Wing

Def Role: Team/Awareness Wing

Dick is probably the best off-movement three-point shooting prospect in the class.

His college stat & athletic profile coming out is a dead ringer for Devin Booker (plus more orebs, STLs & unassisted+contested threes), with close similarities to many other young elite shooting prospects over the years too, from Klay Thompson to John Jenkins and many in between.

It is however quite rare to find a shooting profile this good with a decent offensive rebound percentage to complement it. There are two former Blue Devils who pop up when you look back for underclassmen who checked all these boxes: Gary Trent Jr. and Luke Kennard.

Dick sports a better steal rate and is taller than both, but likely not by enough that we should put him in a completely different class of prospect.

Ultimately, I think all-time great movement shooter (Klay) or superstar initiator (Booker) are too lofty of outcomes to take seriously, but Dick's profile, whose 75th %ile outcome is probably better than Gary Trent, is a pretty dang good one to take a stab at in the modern NBA.

12. Keyonte George

Off Role: Possible Gravity Bending Floor Spacer+Secondary Initiator Guard

Def Role: Point of Attack Guard

Keyonte is more interesting than the yearly "top ranked guard recruit—certified bucket getter" because he posted a good assist rate and good enough steal and rebound rates on top of his swoon worthy usage, three point attempt and FTA/2PA rates.

He played hard nosed defense and almost always made the right play on that end in college. Not what you'd expect from a 31% usage guy. There's certainly outcomes where this 6'4"/6'8" stout guard becomes a very impactful defender.

His extremely poor efficiency shouldn't cause you too much concern considering his shot diet, but he would've done well to take less mid-range shots.

There's not many very statistical comparisons that came very close to matching George's usage, ast%, 3PA rate and NBA-level athlete baseline stats, but a bevy of top-five picks who all outclassed him in one way or another do pop up: Trae Young, D'Angelo Russell, R.J. Barrett.

Stylistically, it's easy to imagine George ending up as something closer to C.J. McCollum or Jamal Murray, perhaps with a more balanced two-way game.